UFC 226

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by FarmerHenry, Jun 17, 2018.

  1. FarmerHenry

    FarmerHenry Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card Yellow Card Banned

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    Howdy.

    There is not a thread for this event, but all moneylines have been released. I reckon we should discuss that.

    Thanks
     
  2. BigDramaShow26

    BigDramaShow26 Blue Belt

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    Ive had Cormier circled for weeks and I'm going to make a large (for me) bet on him as soon as I touch down in Vegas.

    So before the lines were released I loved Perry over Yancy. But the -230 is actually higher than I i.agined. i figured to see -160ish since Yancy did beat Brazilian Cowboy albeit in an ugly fight.

    I still love Perry by KO here. Yancy is so easy to hit and Perry hits way too hard. I'm going to use that as one leg of a parlay for sure. Just a matter of who is the next leg.

    I lean Max because i cant imagine the guy getting hurt, and Ortega has relied on hurting his opponents in order to submit them in the past. Max isnt going to just put his neck in danger like Cub did either..
     
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  3. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Saki should be a bit wider. People underestimating the skill chasm in kickboxing there, and it's not like Rountree's gonna be grappling. Miocic KO1. Holloway late KO. Lewis/Ngannou should be way closer to evens. Not sure why Pettis has gone from like -120 2 months ago to +143. Costa really hasn't earned those odds.

    Loading up on Hall @ +375. Don't see how that doesn't close way closer.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2018
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  4. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  5. PuertoRican

    PuertoRican Silver Belt

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  6. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    I'd be surprised if either title-fight went the distance, which isn't a bad thing with some of those judges. Surprised they're rotating all 3, too.
     
  7. Larthus

    Larthus White Belt

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    I'm so in on rob font its not even funny

    edit: rob font at these current odds is must-bet

    edit 2: fade lando at these odds, derrick lewis +265 is too good not to take

    im cumming
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
  8. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    You're playing Font there? Assuncao's pretty damned legit as a striker. I was big on Font against Almeida at dog odds, but I feel like Assuncao's priced about right.
     
  9. FarmerHenry

    FarmerHenry Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card Yellow Card Banned

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    1-1 mma fighter who was in a close stand up fight w Da Silva should not be wider. This isn’t kickboxing, and based on that first Saki fight its not hard to envision Khalil finding a clean shot that ends Saki
     
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  10. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Can the Black Beast find a way to win rounds? Probably not.
    Can he knock out Ngannou? Probably not.

    Will I stab his ML when it’s this juicy? YEAAAAH.
     
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  11. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    Khalil is a developing fighter. After sheepish defeat to Pedro he sharpened up his mindset. After gassing badly in three minutes he could again come up with something new. Maybe even grappling.
     
  12. Larthus

    Larthus White Belt

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    Font has a 5 in reach adv and has really good striking as well, absolutely playing him
     
  13. FarmerHenry

    FarmerHenry Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card Yellow Card Banned

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    Split decision Assuncao can't be trusted against Font. His volume is so low he barely beat a developing Aljo on the feet.
     
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  14. BigDramaShow26

    BigDramaShow26 Blue Belt

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    I like Lewis as a big underdog also. NGannou has that mythical power so people think Lewis wont be able to hold his own against him. I call bullshit. To me this should be more like Ngannou -160.

    Lewis would do the same thing to Arvloski and Overeem that NGannou did.
     
  15. conmemay

    conmemay Boxer-Puncher

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    NGANNOU will probbly have the speed and power edge and that is alot in a heavyweight fight. But yeah his line sucks.
     
  16. Orion

    Orion Brown Belt

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    Why?
     
  17. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    He should be the narrow favorite. Costa's strength of schedule is 2-10 at UFC MW, and he had actual trouble with Hendricks. No reason he should be a gigantic favorite when he's taking a massive step-up in strength of schedule, and he really hasn't looked that insanely world-beating against the guys he's fought against.
    Did you see Rountree's last fight? Dude isn't getting better.
     
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  18. BigDramaShow26

    BigDramaShow26 Blue Belt

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    I remember him destroying Hendricks with kicks, or am I remembering this wrong?
     
  19. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    He had two early finishes in row and went for third against wrong guy in bit of panic mode. His fight iq is not the best in the world, but both have questionable cardio and I don’t feel like betting at these odds against the chace of Rountree mixing some td’s. I think he changed his happy-lucky-go attitude after Pedro fight, so he’s capable of some developement at least.
     
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  20. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Hendricks got stuck on the outside of the crazy size disparity for a lot of it, but Costa did get hit with a lot of telegraphed overhand lefts from Hendricks along the way. I just don't see that slower-paced pressure style working anywhere near as well against a guy like Hall who can make him pay for giving him space, I'd rather see him going Brunson-level insanely aggro if I was to play Costa.
     
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