UFC 226

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by FarmerHenry, Jun 17, 2018.

  1. OutRun

    OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

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    Don't forget the Vannata circlejerk, I'm the only one who thinks he's going to get killed by pressure pace and leg kicks so toss a dime on Klose and thank me later.
     
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  2. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Green Belt

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    Naah Im betting Felder
     
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  3. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Does Stylebenders performance last night give anyone some confidence in Dan Hooker's ability to stuff the TD?
     
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  4. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Green Belt

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    Not really but he should win this.
     
  5. thewiggo

    thewiggo White Belt

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    No, Tavares is not a great offensive takedown artist - Durinho is a thick 155er fighting a gangly Hooker... Durinho has so many techniques to employ that he doesnt even need a takedown to get a sub, can snag an assortment of leg/foot locks.
     
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  6. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Omoplata. Book it.
     
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  7. TITS

    TITS Black Beast Belt Platinum Member

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    Millender
     
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  8. Tony J

    Tony J Blue Belt

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    Agreed. Very tricky.

    I see value on DC as well.

    With Whitmire, she only went back up to 125 for the show, where she got womanhandled, so I don't think she will be a gigantic force at 115. I really struggle to think of what she does well, and she doesn't seem athletic. Moyle, you can at least say she is a solid ground fighter, and Emily has losses on the ground..
     
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  9. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 The OriginAl

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    I think Klose should be the favorite but I dont think Vannata bout to get killed lol. Sounds like Vannata wants to pace himself, he say cardio isnt the problem(lol), pace is. If thats the case then maybe he wont blowout Klose in rd1 to pace himself then still be gassed going into rd3.
     
  10. Ham Socks

    Ham Socks Professional Fighter

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    I am too, and by decision reluctantly. +334 is what I snagged it at.
     
  11. danareem

    danareem Blue Belt

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    Unibet has Miocic to finish via KO/TKO/sub +175, tiny bit better than most books
     
  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Perry/Felder o1.5 at -172 has value for sure.
     
  13. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

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    If anybody is feeling FOMO for not betting Izzy last night, Gokhan Saki is like the same thing

    --Both obviously talented kickboxers
    --Both saw adversity adjusting to MMA in early fight (Izzy = ground, Saki = cardio)
    --Both opened as solid faves and the market relentelessly bet them to tiny faves bc recent performance

    Izzy more physical talented, but Saki is more proven. He held his own kickboxing vs prime Ubereem and regularly fought bigger dudes. And the big difference is that Izzy had a solid opponent whereas Saki is fighting a bum who has just as bad ground game and cardio as himself.

    I don't get how anybody believes Rountree has anything close to a 50% chance here. It's going to be a standup fight and he is going to be significantly worse.
     
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  14. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 The OriginAl

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    I ended up taking Saki at -130 and now every tme I thnk about ths fight I want to add more.
     
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  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Agree. I'm pretty big on Saki too and glad I waited. He should be -180 to -200 here.
     
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  16. Ryan Kelly

    Ryan Kelly Yellow Belt

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    Haven’t been able to decide which side of this fight I like. Gonna tail you I think. Good luck! I’m also having a tough time picking Klose/Vanatta
     
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Chiesa's weight miss and him looking a bit bad has me a bit nervous. I still like him to win, but can't go big on Mike now. I'm 2u and wish it was 1 or 1.5. I'll live with it but he looked pretty drained yesterday.

    I think value is on Klose at current odds. Fight is close to a pick 'em to me maybe VERY slightly favor Lando but Klose at +165 was worth 1u to me.
     
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  18. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    For those who like Ngannou:

    I'd look at his rd 2 prop at +500. I think slimmed down Francis may take his time a bit and not go all out to start. He's done it before and I think it's likely he's conscious of pace here after his last fight. Lewis doesn't generally go ballistic right away either.

    Yeah more likely Francis finds the KO in rd 1 but I think rd 2 at +500 has WAY more value than rd 1 at -105.
     
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  19. Karmello

    Karmello Green Belt

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    Before his UFC debut Saki didn't fight for over 2 and a half years, now without the ringrust and hopefully with better cardio we could see a much better performance from Saki here. I just hope the injury and operation he had isn't going to play a factor.

    I've seen Saki fight since I was a kid and he fought the best heavyweight kickboxers for over 10 years. He fought Bad Hari (multiple times), Spong, Peter Aerts, Overeem, Bonjasky, Schilt, Verhoeven and a lot more of the best heavyweights in the world.

    If Saki is in shape and hasn't grown old overnight he's going to completely destroy Rountree here. Or Rountree magically needs to learn how to wrestle, because otherwise he's going night night.

    Already got a total of 6 units on Saki's ML, KO and RD1 and I'm thinking about adding more.
     
  20. Ryan Kelly

    Ryan Kelly Yellow Belt

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    I know the line has moved some but Hall +335 strikes me as kind of an insane price
     
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