UFC 226

I think the big difference here with Holloway as compared to Ortega's previous opponents is that Holloway will likely do a lot of damage in the rounds he wins. I think Ortega is going to get his ass kicked here, but he'll likely pull something out since I'm betting against him.
 
My book's got full props for the championship fights. Ortega should get absolutely wrecked here, but he should have been wrecked in his last 2 fights so it's hard to handicap him.

Ortega Sub's +260 & ITD is +188. Fight to end ITD is -190.

Miocic gets Cormier out inside 2. Cormier's striking defense is crap and he's been rocked badly in 5/6 of his last fights.
I went big on Ortega against both Cub and Frankie but don't see him winning any other way than sub here, already got 6u bet on Holloway

What worries me most about this fight is his weightcut, this has to be one of his last fights at FW
 
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Any leans to Assancauo vs Font ?
I would bet Assancauo with more confidence if he would have a more offensive wrestling game, Font is dangerous on the feet.
 
I love that I don't need to worry about an instinctual shot from Holloway if he gets pressured or rocked ala Moicano or Font vs Munhoz. Even if he does need a TD he goes for trips rather than double/single legs keeping his neck out of danger.
 
Holloway isn't easily pressured or cut off in the cage either. His footwork awareness is beyond incredible. He'll circle away from the cage even if getting utterly bullrushed like Stephens attempted a few times. He also is a good hand fighter in the clinch and is good a stalling out people there. He was always looking for a wrist to control against the fence. Stephens, Lamas, Cub fights are examples of that iirc.
 
I've decided that Ortega's going to win by dominant 50-44 wrestlefucking of Holloway, as the dude's already taken the most units from me of any fighter and continually finds new ways to confuse the fuck out of me.
 
I like Pettis and Klose both at dog odds.
 
That standing guillotine choke Ortega landed against Swanson was impressive.

Both fighters fighting against the cage. Swanson dips down and leaves his neck exposed, Ortega grabs a standing guillotine. After the fight Swanson, said that choke was so tight, he felt like he was going to die.

It was a small opening and he took advantage of it so quick.


https://www.google.ca/amp/s/mmajunk...anicked-brian-ortega-choke-die-ufc-fresno/amp
 
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Oh boy this is gonna be a good one. Respect to the UFC for making a stacked July card with no "stars"

Vanatta vs Klose, No bets, both of these guys are great strikers, just inconsistent, Klose looked bad against Teymur (so did Vanatta) Vanatta looked good against Green, hope Klose gets those leg kicks going like he did against Diakiese, Vanatta does too much spinning shit, like I know he got the spinning kick KO, but if someone really focused on countering Lando's spinning shit, they could KO him.

Hooker vs Burns might be on of the best match ups on a fight pass prelims in history. No fuccin clue who's gonna win this one, they both looked very good lately. Hooker's still got the more versatile striking, Burns is kind of a power puncher, but of course Burns has some of the best BJJ in the UFC to fall back on. I'm going to play the under, but if I had to choose a side I like Burns as a dog.

Millender vs Griffin, think Millender is the better striking, should be a 15 min kickboxing match that Curtis will win.

Assuncao vs Font, Raphael is way more technical. dudes 10-1 in his last 11... Font is a great brawler, but think Assunacao will be able to out point Font and avoid the brawl. no bets on this one.

Mediros vs Perry. Bet a unit on Yancy at openers... one of the worst decisions of my life. went from +120 to +220... Perry was -450 vs Griffin, people love laying Juice on Perry, no idea why, he's a bum, worried about Yancy's chin of course, but still like Yancy's chances, Perry's never been KO'd before but Yancy can accumulate a ton of damage like he did vs Oliveira. just wish I waited.

Hall vs Borrachina, Borrachina should win, but no value on his line, actually a little value on Hall.

Saki vs Roundtree, Saki round 1, no bet, enjoy the slug fest.

Chiesa vs Pettis, Chiesa has activity problems, 3rd fight in 2.5 years, really can't imagine Chiesa being the first to make Pettis tap, that being said not too confident in Pettis winning either, no bet on this one.

Ngannou vs Lewis, Ngannou being -350 after his last fight is hilarious, he was so under prepared, he doesn't know how to do anything but punch, Black beast is the much better MMA fighter, I think Lewis will take him down and lay and pray with a little GnP for a decision, don't know about bets for this one.

Holloway vs Ortega, huge fan of both of these guys, best fight all year for me, think Brian is the more versatile fighter, he's got good instincts and good power on the feet, and the best sub game in the UFC, Max is probably the best boxer in the UFC, I think Brian will find a way to finish Max in the late round, probably by submission, have been monitoring Ortega's ML for weeks, I cap it Max -130 Brian +120, can't wait for this shit.

Miocic vs Cormier, another incredible fight, think Stipe will look for the KO, DC get's rocked easily, DC will look to wrestle, GnP, unlikely to finish, like his chances at a decision. Will probably end up on DC's money line, think he's the more intelligent fighter, better fight IQ, think DC wants it more too.
 
Oh boy this is gonna be a good one. Respect to the UFC for making a stacked July card with no "stars"

Vanatta vs Klose, No bets, both of these guys are great strikers, just inconsistent, Klose looked bad against Teymur (so did Vanatta) Vanatta looked good against Green, hope Klose gets those leg kicks going like he did against Diakiese, Vanatta does too much spinning shit, like I know he got the spinning kick KO, but if someone really focused on countering Lando's spinning shit, they could KO him.

Hooker vs Burns might be on of the best match ups on a fight pass prelims in history. No fuccin clue who's gonna win this one, they both looked very good lately. Hooker's still got the more versatile striking, Burns is kind of a power puncher, but of course Burns has some of the best BJJ in the UFC to fall back on. I'm going to play the under, but if I had to choose a side I like Burns as a dog.

Millender vs Griffin, think Millender is the better striking, should be a 15 min kickboxing match that Curtis will win.

Assuncao vs Font, Raphael is way more technical. dudes 10-1 in his last 11... Font is a great brawler, but think Assunacao will be able to out point Font and avoid the brawl. no bets on this one.

Mediros vs Perry. Bet a unit on Yancy at openers... one of the worst decisions of my life. went from +120 to +220... Perry was -450 vs Griffin, people love laying Juice on Perry, no idea why, he's a bum, worried about Yancy's chin of course, but still like Yancy's chances, Perry's never been KO'd before but Yancy can accumulate a ton of damage like he did vs Oliveira. just wish I waited.

Hall vs Borrachina, Borrachina should win, but no value on his line, actually a little value on Hall.

Saki vs Roundtree, Saki round 1, no bet, enjoy the slug fest.

Chiesa vs Pettis, Chiesa has activity problems, 3rd fight in 2.5 years, really can't imagine Chiesa being the first to make Pettis tap, that being said not too confident in Pettis winning either, no bet on this one.

Ngannou vs Lewis, Ngannou being -350 after his last fight is hilarious, he was so under prepared, he doesn't know how to do anything but punch, Black beast is the much better MMA fighter, I think Lewis will take him down and lay and pray with a little GnP for a decision, don't know about bets for this one.

Holloway vs Ortega, huge fan of both of these guys, best fight all year for me, think Brian is the more versatile fighter, he's got good instincts and good power on the feet, and the best sub game in the UFC, Max is probably the best boxer in the UFC, I think Brian will find a way to finish Max in the late round, probably by submission, have been monitoring Ortega's ML for weeks, I cap it Max -130 Brian +120, can't wait for this shit.

Miocic vs Cormier, another incredible fight, think Stipe will look for the KO, DC get's rocked easily, DC will look to wrestle, GnP, unlikely to finish, like his chances at a decision. Will probably end up on DC's money line, think he's the more intelligent fighter, better fight IQ, think DC wants it more too.
Yeah, fight of the night will be Saki against Rountree.
I think Francis will ko Lewis in the first but it isnt worth the risk to bet him at that odds, Lewis got crazy power too.
Borrachina same thing like Francis, he should win against hall but he is so juiced that it isnt worth to bet him, Uriah is dangerous at any time of the fight.
 
So pissed off on the Chiesa/Pettis fight, had 4u on Chiesa +140 for UFC 223. The odds right now are accurate imo, don't know if I'll have any bet on it this time
 
That standing guillotine choke Ortega landed against Swanson was impressive.

Both fighters fighting against the cage. Swanson dips down and leaves his neck exposed, Ortega grabs a standing guillotine. After the fight Swanson, said that choke was so tight, he felt like he was going to die.

It was a small opening and he took advantage of it so quick.


https://www.google.ca/amp/s/mmajunk...anicked-brian-ortega-choke-die-ufc-fresno/amp
He set it up by kneeing Cub to the body to make him dip down a bit and give him the opportunity to snatch the neck, even more impressive
 
Ortega secured that anaconda choke in the final seconds of rd1 with a front head lock from the clinch as well, cubs corner told him not to lock up with Ortega and if he did, to keep proper head position. Obviously he didn't listen.
 
I rewatched Rountrees and Sakis last fight, I have to say that Sakis cardio is even worse than Rountrees.
Saki gased bad after 3 and half min... if he didnt land that lucky punch he would lose.
Who wins ? Dont really know, both guys got power and if Rountree survives the first round than he should win.
Betting wise I will put Rountree on one of the parlays because he got a real chance to win that and the odds are good too.
 
Is Vannata vs Klose still happening? Ufc.com doesn't have it listed but I don't see anything saying it was cancelled.
 
I rewatched Rountrees and Sakis last fight, I have to say that Sakis cardio is even worse than Rountrees.
Saki gased bad after 3 and half min... if he didnt land that lucky punch he would lose.
Who wins ? Dont really know, both guys got power and if Rountree survives the first round than he should win.
Betting wise I will put Rountree on one of the parlays because he got a real chance to win that and the odds are good too.
Lucky Punch? Saki's a K1 legend and a GLORY champion. That shit ain't luck, brah. It was about 2 years since Saki had fought and he didn't have cardio problems in kickboxing so I'd be willing to buy the insanely superior striker at -175 (accepting the risk that he get closer to his previous form). Definitely. When was the last time Rountree tried to grapple?
 
I rewatched Rountrees and Sakis last fight, I have to say that Sakis cardio is even worse than Rountrees.
Saki gased bad after 3 and half min... if he didnt land that lucky punch he would lose.
Who wins ? Dont really know, both guys got power and if Rountree survives the first round than he should win.
Betting wise I will put Rountree on one of the parlays because he got a real chance to win that and the odds are good too.
I wouldn't say that the left hook that Saki landed was a lucky punch. I do think the fight was stopped early since da Silva probably would have kept defending if Saki had gone to the ground (and it was near the end of the round) . For a K1 champ with such high credentials I was surprised that he was getting lit up at the end of the round.
 
I wouldn't say that the left hook that Saki landed was a lucky punch. I do think the fight was stopped early since da Silva probably would have kept defending if Saki had gone to the ground (and it was near the end of the round) . For a K1 champ with such high credentials I was surprised that he was getting lit up at the end of the round.
This left hook was lucky imo, look how gased he was. I now he is a high level kickboxing fighter but in this fight Im trusting more the fighter with more cardio. Saki got also ko loses and Rountree has power.
 
Rountree's a one-round fighter himself, and I'd trust a gassed Saki's kickboxing over a gassed Rountree's. Saki's also shown the ability to dig deep, whilst Rountree has a Guilliardian ability to crumple at the slight sign of adversity. Rountree doesn't wrestle, so this is most likely going to be a pure kickboxing match.
 
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