UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

I find Rogans gone stale. Never learn anything from him. With Dc and Cruz they give out some good knowledge. Wish dc would watch just a bit of tape mind. Rogan just bring up the same old talking points every card. Gloves, eye pokes , 12 to 6 elbows. My least fav now. Nice to get a fresh perspective on the fights from the new lot. Dc, Cruz anik number 1. Basically any combo with out rogan.
 
I find Rogans gone stale. Never learn anything from him. With Dc and Cruz they give out some good knowledge. Wish dc would watch just a bit of tape mind. Rogan just bring up the same old talking points every card. Gloves, eye pokes , 12 to 6 elbows. My least fav now. Nice to get a fresh perspective on the fights from the new lot. Dc, Cruz anik number 1. Basically any combo with out rogan.
My favorite combo by far is Gooden and Hardy.
 
Had a little scare with 5dimes, long story short, be very careful about hitting openers if there is any chance it is a reversed line. They consider hitting "bad" lines theft, and reserve the right to confiscate your funds.

At this point I would just take my money and run. There’s a finite amount of money 5dimes will allow you to make, and it sounds like you are getting close to your limit.

And if you can’t bet bad openers, 5dimes hardly has any advantage over bookmaker or nitrogen other than props anyway.
 
I find Rogans gone stale. Never learn anything from him. With Dc and Cruz they give out some good knowledge. Wish dc would watch just a bit of tape mind. Rogan just bring up the same old talking points every card. Gloves, eye pokes , 12 to 6 elbows. My least fav now. Nice to get a fresh perspective on the fights from the new lot. Dc, Cruz anik number 1. Basically any combo with out rogan.
I'm not a big fan of Cruz. Indifferent with DC but I like Felder when he's on, Hardy/Gooden is a good combo too

Wish Stann hadn't left. He was great
 
Im surprised the odds got so wide between Burgos and Kurt, should be more even. Both are dangerous strikers coming from tko losses.
 
I find Rogans gone stale. Never learn anything from him. With Dc and Cruz they give out some good knowledge. Wish dc would watch just a bit of tape mind. Rogan just bring up the same old talking points every card. Gloves, eye pokes , 12 to 6 elbows. My least fav now. Nice to get a fresh perspective on the fights from the new lot. Dc, Cruz anik number 1. Basically any combo with out rogan.

We're past the age where a guy who has never actually trained MMA can do color. It's fairly cringy when both fighters are resting in over/under position on the fence and Rogan is talking about how grueling it is, and how he always talks about the possibility of miracle submissions as if there's actually a chance of them happening. His striking commentary is his strongest aspect.

Felder is actually my favorite color guy. I went huge on him against Oliveira at evens, largely due to his commentary and recognizing his fight IQ.
 
Scary dude. I hit Ponz +160 opener that was a mistake and I got all kind of notifications about it lol.
Wow. That’s ridiculous. At the end of the day it’s their liability. It’s not my fault they opened magny as a favorite. How am I supposed to know what their mistakes are?

It’s our job as bettors to exploit their bad lines

They had the under first five for Boston set at 3 for -130 today. I hit that and then paid for Boston team total over 3 -160

I knew I had to take the risk of losing juice on that

They changed the first five under 3 to 2 after I hit it

Both of them hit and I played both lines big

Oops we messed up, we’re canceling your bet and keeping your money?

I guess that’s the risk you take with offshore online books
At this point I would just take my money and run. There’s a finite amount of money 5dimes will allow you to make, and it sounds like you are getting close to your limit.

And if you can’t bet bad openers, 5dimes hardly has any advantage over bookmaker or nitrogen other than props anyway.

Yeah I have a withdrawal pending as we speak, keeping some on there for openers (albeit I will obviously be very wary of hitting reverse lines) and for -3.5 props as I have been very profitable with those. But I was also limited after this "warning", so I can't even get a reasonable amount down on openers anymore anyway. Probably head to Bookmaker and continue using BOL as well.

BTW, the only two reverse lines I have hit in a long time were Ponz (vs Magny) and Edwards (vs Madge) openers. It just so happened they were released close together. They froze my account and wouldn't allow me to access the cashier. I have roughly $7.5k on there so that was a little unnerving. Just wanted to give you guys a heads up to either keep less funds on there (which I was avoiding to help not get limited) or pause when you think a line is too good to be true. Although Montel Jackson opened +225 a day after this so I don't reall know what to think as that was apparently a legit line. Roberson +145, etc. Oh and the owner of 5Dimes has possibly been kidnapped, so theres also that lol.
 
I'm considering betting on either Lewis or Brunson. Does anyone have an opinion on which is the better underdog for me to put some money on? How much of a puncher's chance do you think Lewis has? Is Adesanya definitely the real deal? Can Brunson either catch a brawling KO, or maybe implements a wrestling strategy for the decision win? I feel like there's some value in taking a chance with 1 of those dogs, but someone help me decide which 1...
bet on Brunson. DC is way too smart for Lewis' luck to work.
 
I've been watching MMA for around 20 years now. But I am a complete newbie when it comes to betting. I recently won the obvious khabib vs McGregor fight bet. I have two questions, first I want to know people's opinion on my break downs. Second, I wanna know people's opinion on Rockhold vs Weidman at UFC 230. I want to start a new post but sherdog does not let me post yet.

My breakdowns on wins
IMHO, wins can be broken down to three categories
1. won by mostly skill
2. won by luck
3. won due to referee (favorites and champions are given preferential treatments)

whenever I bet, do not take number 2 into account but I do take 3 into somewhat of an account.

I bet on Rockhold for UFC 230 after watching
1. their first UFC fight Rockhold vs Weidman (Rockhold was indubitably better albeit by a small margin)
2. watched Weidman vs Gasetelum (Weidman outclassed Gastelum by a very small margin)
3. watched Rockhold vs Yoel Romero (Yoel got a lucky punch)
4. watched Romero vs Whittaker 2 (this kind of scared me since this fight showed that Romero was not taking Rockhold seriously. If you watch this video, Romero is far more serious than when he fought Rockhold. Far far more aggressive and explosive. I still think it was either a draw or Romero should have won that fight, so betting on fights are like this are dangerous)

my final assessment is that Weidman has not improved and that Rockhold has not improved either
therefore, it is likely that Rockhold will win again unless Weidman is lucky.

any comment is appreciated!
 
I've been watching MMA for around 20 years now. But I am a complete newbie when it comes to betting. I recently won the obvious khabib vs McGregor fight bet. I have two questions, first I want to know people's opinion on my break downs. Second, I wanna know people's opinion on Rockhold vs Weidman at UFC 230. I want to start a new post but sherdog does not let me post yet.

My breakdowns on wins
IMHO, wins can be broken down to three categories
1. won by mostly skill
2. won by luck
3. won due to referee (favorites and champions are given preferential treatments)

whenever I bet, do not take number 2 into account but I do take 3 into somewhat of an account.

I bet on Rockhold for UFC 230 after watching
1. their first UFC fight Rockhold vs Weidman (Rockhold was indubitably better albeit by a small margin)
2. watched Weidman vs Gasetelum (Weidman outclassed Gastelum by a very small margin)
3. watched Rockhold vs Yoel Romero (Yoel got a lucky punch)
4. watched Romero vs Whittaker 2 (this kind of scared me since this fight showed that Romero was not taking Rockhold seriously. If you watch this video, Romero is far more serious than when he fought Rockhold. Far far more aggressive and explosive. I still think it was either a draw or Romero should have won that fight, so betting on fights are like this are dangerous)

my final assessment is that Weidman has not improved and that Rockhold has not improved either
therefore, it is likely that Rockhold will win again unless Weidman is lucky.

any comment is appreciated!
Imo Weidman will ko Rockhold. Chris finished in his last fight The future champ and thats A big thing. Rockhold won only against Branch and his chin is A concern. Weidman is The right side plus dog money
 
I've been watching MMA for around 20 years now. But I am a complete newbie when it comes to betting. I recently won the obvious khabib vs McGregor fight bet. I have two questions, first I want to know people's opinion on my break downs. Second, I wanna know people's opinion on Rockhold vs Weidman at UFC 230. I want to start a new post but sherdog does not let me post yet.

My breakdowns on wins
IMHO, wins can be broken down to three categories
1. won by mostly skill
2. won by luck
3. won due to referee (favorites and champions are given preferential treatments)

whenever I bet, do not take number 2 into account but I do take 3 into somewhat of an account.

I bet on Rockhold for UFC 230 after watching
1. their first UFC fight Rockhold vs Weidman (Rockhold was indubitably better albeit by a small margin)
2. watched Weidman vs Gasetelum (Weidman outclassed Gastelum by a very small margin)
3. watched Rockhold vs Yoel Romero (Yoel got a lucky punch)
4. watched Romero vs Whittaker 2 (this kind of scared me since this fight showed that Romero was not taking Rockhold seriously. If you watch this video, Romero is far more serious than when he fought Rockhold. Far far more aggressive and explosive. I still think it was either a draw or Romero should have won that fight, so betting on fights are like this are dangerous)

my final assessment is that Weidman has not improved and that Rockhold has not improved either
therefore, it is likely that Rockhold will win again unless Weidman is lucky.

any comment is appreciated!
Welcome to the forum man.



I'm not sure it's fair to say Weidman hasn't improved since obviously his coaches and top analysts are pointing out he has and he's punching light boards and shit lol.

Mister glass chin on the other hand I will agree with. Lately everyone with a decent grasp of boxing technique has gotten through Rock's shoddy defense.

Theres a lot of red flags on both these guys too. Weidmans injuries and inactivity are huge. No reason to be confident in a side imo. I sincerely doubt this sees the cards though.
 
for me, I used to practice martial arts for around a decade. So when I look at a fighter's movements, I can sorta gauge their levels. at least from my assessment, Rockhold has a slight edge over Weidman. But I guess in the scenario where two fighters' skill are almost equal, luck may play a big role.
 
Weidmann is a good wrestler but quite slow and hittable if you ask me, he also always seems to gas in the 3d round, so yeah I guess the line is right as it is now. Outwrestling Gastelum who is undersized doesn't say much to me.
 
for me, I used to practice martial arts for around a decade. So when I look at a fighter's movements, I can sorta gauge their levels. at least from my assessment, Rockhold has a slight edge over Weidman. But I guess in the scenario where two fighters' skill are almost equal, luck may play a big role.
I get what you are talking about, rockhold looks more fluid while chris is somewhat stiff. however, you have to consider other things too. Neither is a great striker per se, luke has a nice roundhouse kick and right hook while weidman is a wrestlerboxer. chris found some success with his own kicks to the body in the first fight tho. They both excel at grappling. Whoever winds up on top is most likely winning, if the fight goes to the ground. They both have great gnp and top control. They haven't fought in a while, so you can't be 100% confident on either. I'd say weidman is a good value bet since it's in ny, he's coming off a good win and I favour him in the striking exchanges. Rockhold has become very tentative since the bisping ko, and doesn't look nearly as confident as he was when he beat chris back in 2015. His chin is questionable and I think weidman will find it sooner or later.
 
3. watched Rockhold vs Yoel Romero (Yoel got a lucky punch)
What was lucky about it? He doubled up on his jab while moving forward and caught him clean with that overhand when Rockhold tried to counter with his hook. He set Rockhold up, he didn't get lucky. It wasn't like that was the only punch he landed in the fight, he got Rockhold up against the cage in the start of round 2 and swarmed him with punches, I was actually suprised Rockhold were able to take those shots. I haven't seen it in a while but wasn't there one more occasion when Rockhold backed himself up to the cage and got hurt? While watching it live I remember feeling it was unevitable that he was gonna catch him sooner or later
 
I get what you are talking about, rockhold looks more fluid while chris is somewhat stiff. however, you have to consider other things too. Neither is a great striker per se, luke has a nice roundhouse kick and right hook while weidman is a wrestlerboxer. chris found some success with his own kicks to the body in the first fight tho. They both excel at grappling. Whoever winds up on top is most likely winning, if the fight goes to the ground. They both have great gnp and top control. They haven't fought in a while, so you can't be 100% confident on either. I'd say weidman is a good value bet since it's in ny, he's coming off a good win and I favour him in the striking exchanges. Rockhold has become very tentative since the bisping ko, and doesn't look nearly as confident as he was when he beat chris back in 2015. His chin is questionable and I think weidman will find it sooner or later.
I do agree with much of your assessment but weidmans submission techniques are too sloppy. Weidman spends so much energy on take downs and rockhold is just as good on the ground as weidman. I just see more scenarios in which rockhold wins.
 
What was lucky about it? He doubled up on his jab while moving forward and caught him clean with that overhand when Rockhold tried to counter with his hook. He set Rockhold up, he didn't get lucky. It wasn't like that was the only punch he landed in the fight, he got Rockhold up against the cage in the start of round 2 and swarmed him with punches, I was actually suprised Rockhold were able to take those shots. I haven't seen it in a while but wasn't there one more occasion when Rockhold backed himself up to the cage and got hurt? While watching it live I remember feeling it was unevitable that he was gonna catch him sooner or later
I wanna refute your post but you sound like a real trained fighter. To my untrained eyes, that was luck. I think it shoulda went to a decision and romero shoulda won by a majority decision.pl
 
I wanna refute your post but you sound like a real trained fighter. To my untrained eyes, that was luck. I think it shoulda went to a decision and romero shoulda won by a majority decision.pl
I have no real life experience at all with MMA besides watching it.
But that's Rockholds biggest fault, he backs up in a straight line with his head held really high. And Romero knows that. So it was a perfect execution from Romero, he waited untill Luke was behind the black lines and would only have a few steps before his back touched the cage, then doubled up on his jab (I think for the first time in that fight, which might have suprised Rockhold in itself) to get close enough, and knowing that Luke dosent move his head it would be right in line for his overhand. He also kept Luke distracted, right before the KO he hammerfisted his thigh, a completely unnecessary strike in terms of damage,but it is still information Luke has to process in the moment. That could certanily mess with how someone reacts to what happens in the following seconds
 
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I do agree with much of your assessment but weidmans submission techniques are too sloppy. Weidman spends so much energy on take downs and rockhold is just as good on the ground as weidman. I just see more scenarios in which rockhold wins.
You are right, weidman gasses way too often after the tds, you may be right. then again it's just 3 rds now. It's a close call.

The romero ko definitely wasn't luck as raketmannen said, he definitely set it up with the double jab. I'm not a huge fan of Romero since he isn't very technical with his striking (his atheletism and explosiveness plays a big role in his success) but he does some nice things every now and then and seems to be getting better lately at 41 which is incredible. The man is a physical specimen, it's bad that he has a hard time cutting weight now.
 
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