I've been watching MMA for around 20 years now. But I am a complete newbie when it comes to betting. I recently won the obvious khabib vs McGregor fight bet. I have two questions, first I want to know people's opinion on my break downs. Second, I wanna know people's opinion on Rockhold vs Weidman at UFC 230. I want to start a new post but sherdog does not let me post yet.
My breakdowns on wins
IMHO, wins can be broken down to three categories
1. won by mostly skill
2. won by luck
3. won due to referee (favorites and champions are given preferential treatments)
whenever I bet, do not take number 2 into account but I do take 3 into somewhat of an account.
I bet on Rockhold for UFC 230 after watching
1. their first UFC fight Rockhold vs Weidman (Rockhold was indubitably better albeit by a small margin)
2. watched Weidman vs Gasetelum (Weidman outclassed Gastelum by a very small margin)
3. watched Rockhold vs Yoel Romero (Yoel got a lucky punch)
4. watched Romero vs Whittaker 2 (this kind of scared me since this fight showed that Romero was not taking Rockhold seriously. If you watch this video, Romero is far more serious than when he fought Rockhold. Far far more aggressive and explosive. I still think it was either a draw or Romero should have won that fight, so betting on fights are like this are dangerous)
my final assessment is that Weidman has not improved and that Rockhold has not improved either
therefore, it is likely that Rockhold will win again unless Weidman is lucky.
any comment is appreciated!