UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

[zeckdo]

Don't forget Rockhold had staph with no antibiotics iirc for that fight. he probably would have gassed bad in the 4th and 5th if he didn't get the GnP off the spin kick takedown at the end of the round, but he won at just the right time, even more impressive victory considering he had staph. I think this one is going to the cards, I favor Weidman

 

[zeckdo]

I'm backing Brunson here. I think it's a bad matchup for Israel. IF Brunson comes out and pressure's Israel we may see him crumble. I really like him as a fighter but nobody has played it at their pace. They have allowed him to win on his timing and pace of the fight to which he is another level to most. Brunson can win this fight if he plays it right. Dog of the night bet for me.

Great card btw for betting imo:

Cormier Rd 2
Rockhold
Branch
Eubanks
Frevola
Burgos KO

ML or ITD?

 

[Mcgregorian]

I think that’s truly wishful thinking regarding Israel crumbling if a far inferior striker recklessly opens up too much for him.

I’m not wishing anything. It’s just my opinion.

Brunson KO

 

[Larthus]

Agree with this but I'm done making logical arguments against Lewis. After the Tybura fight, I realized there are otherworldly forces at play here that are guiding this man to a HW championship lol

^ taken from the 228 prediction thread. Do not bet against Lewis. Pass on the fight or bet on him. There are forces at play that will guide him to a championship.


Also, Tavares is a better fighter than Brunson. Brunson has the technical skillset of a caveman but he has serviceable wrestling & relies on brute power to win. Israel will put on a show against this guy UNLESS Brunson just chains takedowns together. No way Brunson beats him on the feet. There’s levels to striking.

 

[chemmy]

Lol this is getting silly now, Rockhold won the first two rounds on 2 of the judges scorecards, and obviously Weidmann was also gassing or else you don't give up mount that easily in round 3. The love for Weidmann is always pretty ridiculous, how the hell did he look good against Romero or Mousassi?

Well Weidman did win the first round against each of them, so I don’t think him saying that he looked good in those fights is really that big of a stretch.

 

[Gugabe]

I think that’s truly wishful thinking regarding Israel crumbling if a far inferior striker recklessly opens up too much for him.

Everybody who's just used wild aggression in the first round has managed to land punches on Israel's chin. Even Wilkinson pulled off a round off just being damned aggressive.

I also don't believe in the grappling improvement seen between the Italian dude and Tavares fights is a consistent thing, especially when Israel looked so meh off his back against his other two opponents. Brunson could turn it into a wild dogfight and win since Israel doesn't hit hard, or could just put Israel on the back foot and take a dec.

^ taken from the 228 prediction thread. Do not bet against Lewis. Pass on the fight or bet on him. There are forces at play that will guide him to a championship.


Also, Tavares is a better fighter than Brunson. Brunson has the technical skillset of a caveman but he has serviceable wrestling & relies on brute power to win. Israel will put on a show against this guy UNLESS Brunson just chains takedowns together. No way Brunson beats him on the feet. There’s levels to striking.

Israel starts so slooooow and is a defensive liability in the first round. Also don't like him in a gunfight since he doesn't have much power in his hands due to his sheer length.

 

[burge13]

Brunson has to be the play at these odds but don't go heavy. He fights like an idiot and it's hard to believe he'll fight smart (wrestle)...

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I'm backing Brunson here. I think it's a bad matchup for Israel. IF Brunson comes out and pressure's Israel we may see him crumble. I really like him as a fighter but nobody has played it at their pace. They have allowed him to win on his timing and pace of the fight to which he is another level to most. Brunson can win this fight if he plays it right. Dog of the night bet for me.

Have you seen Israel Adesanya's kickboxing matches? Or even the full fight against Tavares?

Guys who come forward recklessly against him are EXACTLY what he loves and takes advantage of more than any other style. I think Brunson has a chance thanks to his wrestling (although no one has been able to take Adesanya down and keep him there) and wild aggression, but it's no more than the odds would suggest.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

It's crazy that Volkan closed as +190 as DC, and Lewis is +500.

Every time we count Lewis out of a fight, he ends up pulling a rabbit out of a hat.

DC wont be able to hold him down, at least not in the early rounds. I feel like a lot of this fight is going to be contested standing, and that's bad for DC.

DC is rightfully the favorite, but I can't play him at these odds. I'll have to take a small stab at Lewis.

Who the fuck would've thought Derick Lewis would be challenging for a title in 2018, crazy times.

 

[Sadistics]

I think Brunson has a chance thanks to his wrestling (although no one has been able to take Adesanya down and keep him there) and wild aggression, but it's no more than the odds would suggest.

Watch his 3rd round vs Vettori, and watch the last time Brunson came out with a wrestling gameplan vs Larkin.

 

[burge13]

Watch his 3rd round vs Vettori, and watch the last time Brunson came out with a wrestling gameplan vs Larkin.

Brunson fought Larkin in 2014. Way too long ago to trust him to do so here

 

[Gugabe]

Have you seen Israel Adesanya's kickboxing matches? Or even the full fight against Tavares?

Guys who come forward recklessly against him are EXACTLY what he loves and takes advantage of more than any other style. I think Brunson has a chance thanks to his wrestling (although no one has been able to take Adesanya down and keep him there) and wild aggression, but it's no more than the odds would suggest.

Notice how his KOs in Kickboxing matches drop dramatically the second he leaves NZ and starts fighting real competition? Tavares had the most effectiveness he had in the fight with blind aggression in the first, and Wilkinson (Hyperbum. I maxbet Siyar against him) took the first round with nothing but aggression. Also Israel's the dude from a gambling-friendly country with a way better public impression than Brunson, and I know from experience that ANZ fighters' lines are always pretty juiced.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Notice how his KOs in Kickboxing matches drop dramatically the second he leaves NZ and starts fighting real competition?

Yeah, how shocking! When you go from fighting regional to world-class caliber opposition, your results get worse! What does that have to do with Israel handling blind forward aggression well?

Tavares had the most effectiveness he had in the fight with blind aggression in the first,

Except that's not what he was doing at all. And there is very little in common between Brunson's stand-up and Tavares' stand-up.

There are certainly ways to have success against and even beat Adesanya's style, and it (naturally) involves coming forward, since few middleweights are 6' 4" with such long arms, but not in the telegraphed, over-aggressive manner that Brunson employs.

and Wilkinson (Hyperbum. I maxbet Siyar against him) took the first round with nothing but aggression.

Seriously, what fights are you watching? Between your claims that Weidman definitely won the first round against Rockhold and that Wilkinson somehow won the first round against Adesanya (?!), it's like you're seeing what you want to see.

 

[Mcgregorian]

Have you seen Israel Adesanya's kickboxing matches? Or even the full fight against Tavares?

Guys who come forward recklessly against him are EXACTLY what he loves and takes advantage of more than any other style. I think Brunson has a chance thanks to his wrestling (although no one has been able to take Adesanya down and keep him there) and wild aggression, but it's no more than the odds would suggest.

Exactly, wild aggression. That's what i'm talking about. Walking through the punches knowing Israel does not have the power and throwing heavy. Nobody has done that yet. I hope Brunson will....

 

[MMAOracle]

I agree on Cummins, but he's not on this card.

Rockhold's last good performance was against Weidman, and a lot of people agree with the whole 'Weidman was probably going to win until he threw the world's dumbest spinning kick' thoughts about it. Also I feel like the holes in Rockhold's game have been fairly consistently demonstrated by this point, whilst Weidman's honestly not looked terrible in his losses.

no my friend. That spinning kick was a kick of desperation.

 

[MMAOracle]

It's crazy that Volkan closed as +190 as DC, and Lewis is +500.

Every time we count Lewis out of a fight, he ends up pulling a rabbit out of a hat.

DC wont be able to hold him down, at least not in the early rounds. I feel like a lot of this fight is going to be contested standing, and that's bad for DC.

DC is rightfully the favorite, but I can't play him at these odds. I'll have to take a small stab at Lewis.

Who the fuck would've thought Derick Lewis would be challenging for a title in 2018, crazy times.

DC will pretend to box Lewis and then do an early takedown just to gas him out. In round 2 or 3, when Lewis is low on gas, DC will either knock him out or submit him. Will not go beyond round 3 and obviously no decision. Lewis will not get a lucky shot because DC is too damn smart.

 

[FightGameTheory]

Who the fuck would've thought Derick Lewis would be challenging for a title in 2018, crazy times.

To be fair, he’s only challenging for a title because of his mic skills on the biggest PPV of all time and his subsequent social media stardom. For God’s sake, DC is taking the fight with a completely bum hand because he doesn’t want to let this easy of an opportunity for free money go by. He’s even saying as much in interviews, saying there’s no way he’d have accepted a fight against Stipe with his hand like this.

 

[Stunna77]

Brunson fought Larkin in 2014. Way too long ago to trust him to do so here

He still proved he has it in his arsenal, would be silly to discount it because it was 4 years ago IMO.

And you are not really "trusting" him to do it here. You are taking a shot on a +300 fighter with two paths to victory, KO or wrestling based decision. He could also use his wrestling to open up his striking.

 

[raketmannen]

This fucking card lol, I wonder which fight will get cancelled next

 

[Naught2Sixty]

This fucking card lol, I wonder which fight will get cancelled next