UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

null

Gold Belt
@Gold
Joined
Nov 21, 2013
Messages
16,361
Reaction score
0
RCY57DU.png
 
Gus at +218 for 1u. I favor Jones but it should be closer and there are a few interrogants.

1u on Mendes at almost evens. I think he is the better wrestler and striker.

1u on Condit at +118. I dont rate Chiesa at all and it seems NBK has been putting some work into this fight.

1u on Uriah Hall at near evens. He looked damn good against Borrachinha.


Kind of liking Nunes ML +258 but I think we might get better odds.

Good card for betting. A lot of close fights.
 
Gus at +218 for 1u. I favor Jones but it should be closer and there are a few interrogants.

1u on Mendes at almost evens. I think he is the better wrestler and striker.

1u on Condit at +118. I dont rate Chiesa at all and it seems NBK has been putting some work into this fight.

1u on Uriah Hall at near evens. He looked damn good against Borrachinha.


Kind of liking Nunes ML +258 but I think we might get better odds.

Good card for betting. A lot of close fights.
Where'd you get lines? Mendes should be a wide favorite IMO.
 
Another good fight card i agree and a good one to close the year to.
 
At first sight I like
Jones + cyborg parlay
Condit
Maybe millender and zingano

There are indeed lots of close matchups.
 
Chad and Latifi the ones to look out for IMO.
 
Can BJ break his 18-fight losing streak? He opened as a +140 against Siver, +265 against Yair. Hall went from -130 to -190 against Maynard. Do with this what you will...
 
Already put a bet of 2.5 units down on Nunes at +240. As I stated in another topic, I don't see what significant advantage Cyborg will have in the fight. Furthermore, seriously studying the tape, I have noticed several flaws Cyborg has that Nunes might well take advantage of.

Cyborg deserves to be a favorite, but it's clear looking at that line that it's based on past reputation and accomplishments, not her actual fighting ability as compared to Nunes'.

At first sight I like
Jones + cyborg parlay

I would heavily advise against this. Two ridiculously overjuiced favorites against excellent opponents who will give them hard fights and can match or surpass them at virtually every aspect of fighting.
 
I would heavily advise against this.
Polar, I don't personally have problem paying the price for Bones. He is a born winner and uber talented (cheater) fighter. I get that Gus was his most challenging fight, but I gotta trust him, and especially in rematches - he is that type of fighter that can spot tendencies and bad habits and change his game from round to round (very, very rare ability... Max has it, Mighty Mouse, DC... but he does it better than them I think), and what he could do if you give him 5 rounds to observe you and analyse you in live action? I think Gus is in big trouble. Jones will fuck him up...
For me, I'll have to play Jones for sure, just wondering who to parlay him with...

--I like Nunes for the upset. She is very talanted girl surrounded by smart coaches and a lot of good sparing partners, I like the camp she is fighting at and gay v straight in WMMA I usually favour the gay. Just kidding... but there is something there, haha.
--I can't trust Condit, even v Chiesa. And we see time after time what going up a weightclass do for fighters - DC, A.Smith, J.Krause, Rocco Martin, T.Santos... Lightweight is full of killers, no wonder Tony (Khabib too of course) is so praised by the media and fans - going undefeated for so long @ 155 is next to impossible. Welterweight is more forgiving if you are not a top notch talent. So I think scoffing Chiesa is not very smart, and giving the current situation with NBK I think this fight could be very competitive and frankly can't give a decisive edge to anyone.
--I like Andrei's smart game since he trains @ ATT but his fight with Shamil gives me pause, he is mobile heavyweight with cardio, but he can be controlled and wrestled not so hard because he gives up size and strength, plus his cardio as good as it is for HW, I think it's getting slowly worse, he is just getting old no matter how hard he trains if he is pushed he can't keep up with younger fighters (and if he gives up size it's even worse).
--I really like Siyar to beat Curtis.M. Something in Curtis I don't like, have to rewatch his fights, but I can't trust him v someone with that much more experience than him, and Siyar is not a small WW, yeah Curtis is huge, but here I don't think he will have his usual size advantage. So Siyar on a dog odds is a must play.
(for the snowflakes: I don't want to take over the thread or to ram my opinion down your throats. I don't think I am better than you, I am just a simple degenerate who wants to have fun talking bets and meanwhile help you and you help me to not lose so much money :-D calm down)
 
Polar, I don't personally have problem paying the price for Bones. He is a born winner and uber talented (cheater) fighter. I get that Gus was his most challenging fight, but I gotta trust him,

Trust him at -280 against a guy who arguably beat him before while coming off a 17-month lay-off? (Yes, I know Gustaffson has been off even longer) Jones might well be the greatest fighter ever, but that doesn't change that this is bad value.
 
I don't see what significant advantage Cyborg will have in the fight.

Just playing devil's advocate a bit, but size? power? cardio? volume?

EDIT: I see you addressed some of this in the other thread. I agree Nunes's cardio is improved but I don't think we can be certain it's completely fixed based on the Pennington and second Shev fights. I don't really agree about Cyborg's pace though. It's difficult to land a high clip when your opponent doesn't want to engage, which has been the case in a lot of Cyborg's fights. It's going to be interesting to see how Nunes approaches this fight, as she's used to being the bully but that's a tough ask here.
 
Last edited:
Just playing devil's advocate a bit, but size? power? cardio? volume?
I think you are onto something with that cardio thing. The only real flaw in Nunes is her cardio. Cyborg could revolve her gameplan around sapping her energy for the first 2 rounds. Shevchenko trained a little with her (Cyborg) and gave hint at reporters about something like that.
If I remembered correctly all but one of her 4 losses are due to cardio failing her. Her first loss was submission under 1 minute, so it's not cardio.
 
In the beginning of the year I put down [email protected] for Gus to win the belt during 2018, so I guess I put 4U and Jones for the freeroll?
 
I think you are onto something with that cardio thing. The only real flaw in Nunes is her cardio. Cyborg could revolve her gameplan around sapping her energy for the first 2 rounds. Shevchenko trained a little with her (Cyborg) and gave hint at reporters about something like that.
If I remembered correctly all but one of her 4 losses are due to cardio failing her. Her first loss was submission under 1 minute, so it's not cardio.

Yes, she also gassed against Shevchenko in their first fight. I think she likely would have gotten finished if that was a 5 rounder.

But, she did have that sinus issue, which apparently has been fixed. We haven't seen it really tested yet, but as I mentioned in my edit, her cardio definitely looked better in her last two fights.
 
Yes, she also gassed against Shevchenko in their first fight. I think she likely would have gotten finished if that was a 5 rounder.
Not too sure, but got your point. Nunes would lose on the scorecards if there were 2 more rounds, but Shevchenko actually making an effort to finish the fight?
But, she did have that sinus issue, which apparently has been fixed. We haven't seen it really tested yet, but as I mentioned in my edit, her cardio definitely looked better in her last two fights.
I don't know if the issues are fixed or not, but one thing is for sure - she tires a lot more from groundwork than anything else. 5 rounds standing, no problemo. If there is some clinches and grappling it could spell disaster tho, especially if she tries ground and pound, she really pours it in and she gets tired quickly by that.
Nunes is a smart girl. I think she was complaining from the dry desert air in Vegas (makes breathing harder for her). The air in Vegas is very dry during summer and has the most moisture december-january. Still more dry than if it's not a desert city, but I guess tolerable. The reason she was delaying this fight (so it's going to be in the middle of the winter in Vegas) and she cancelled the rematch with Shev (was supposed to be in Vegas in the middle of the summer) and they made it in Canada...
giphy.gif
 
Already put a bet of 2.5 units down on Nunes at +240. As I stated in another topic, I don't see what significant advantage Cyborg will have in the fight. Furthermore, seriously studying the tape, I have noticed several flaws Cyborg has that Nunes might well take advantage of.

Cyborg deserves to be a favorite, but it's clear looking at that line that it's based on past reputation and accomplishments, not her actual fighting ability as compared to Nunes'.



I would heavily advise against this. Two ridiculously overjuiced favorites against excellent opponents who will give them hard fights and can match or surpass them at virtually every aspect of fighting.
I'm very confident on jon, cyborg could potentially lose but I highly doubt it. I think nunes respects her too much and will fight on the backfoot. She isn't used to being the matador, doesn't have the cardio to do it for 5 rds either. Cyborg by dec.
 
Last edited:
Just playing devil's advocate a bit, but size? power? cardio? volume?

They're the same height, and Cyborg probably has a solid 5-7 pounds of meaningful mass on Nunes. That's an advantage, sure, but considering each fighter nullifies the other's grappling, it won't have a significant effect on the kickboxing match that will ensue. I can even see it being somewhat of a hindrance and Nunes beating Cyborg to the punch at times.

t6p said:
It's going to be interesting to see how Nunes approaches this fight, as she's used to being the bully but that's a tough ask here.

You beat Cyborg the same way you beat all the old-school Chute Boxe fighters and their Rafael Cordeiro styles. By looking for the straight counters when they come forward aggressively. Which Nunes is in fact good at doing, unlike all of Cyborg's previous opponents.
 
Yes, she also gassed against Shevchenko in their first fight. I think she likely would have gotten finished if that was a 5 rounder.

But, she did have that sinus issue, which apparently has been fixed. We haven't seen it really tested yet, but as I mentioned in my edit, her cardio definitely looked better in her last two fights.

I'm pretty sure the 'Nunes has bad cardio' motif is just a myth that people still hold as a fact. Ortega losing until he suddenly wins, Mutante having the worst chin in the UFC, Lobov is the biggest can in UFC, underneath it all Big Country is a great athlete, etc etc, maybe crappy examples but you catch my drift. These are hard for people to shake sometimes even though the evidence against is glaring.

And yeah, I might get JJ'd on this fight again. The Sheva win was right there in front of us but the odds blocked it from view. Nunes will be much more competitive against Cyborg than JJ was with Sheva though, almost no doubt about that, but I think Cyborg takes it.
 
Back
Top