UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

I'm pretty sure the 'Nunes has bad cardio' motif is just a myth that people still hold as a fact. Ortega losing until he suddenly wins, Mutante having the worst chin in the UFC, Lobov is the biggest can in UFC, underneath it all Big Country is a great athlete, etc etc, maybe crappy examples but you catch my drift.
There is bit of truth in every one of these statements. Just the public likes to oversimplify things too much sometimes.

I think there is real possibility Nunes submits Cyborg. I don't think her TDD is that great. She muscles a lot of things when it comes to grappling or clinch situations. Could be very bad against good grappler like Nunes, and Nunes is not weak, small or old like a lot of Cyborg's victims in the past.
 
What do you guys think about Amanda Nunes shape? Watch UFC 231 embedded episode 4, 20 sek in. Wonder if the added weight will affect her cardio, or is that her natural shape between fights so she's comfortable to move around with that jigglejiggle?
 
What do you guys think about Amanda Nunes shape? Watch UFC 231 embedded episode 4, 20 sek in. Wonder if the added weight will affect her cardio, or is that her natural shape between fights so she's comfortable to move around with that jigglejiggle?

According to her Twitter, Nunes walks around at 162 pounds, so 145 means a much nicer, less taxing weight cut. It should also help with her cardio, too.
 
They're the same height, and Cyborg probably has a solid 5-7 pounds of meaningful mass on Nunes. That's an advantage, sure, but considering each fighter nullifies the other's grappling, it won't have a significant effect on the kickboxing match that will ensue. I can even see it being somewhat of a hindrance and Nunes beating Cyborg to the punch at times.

You beat Cyborg the same way you beat all the old-school Chute Boxe fighters and their Rafael Cordeiro styles. By looking for the straight counters when they come forward aggressively. Which Nunes is in fact good at doing, unlike all of Cyborg's previous opponents.

5-7 pounds probably isn't too far off but I think it's probably a little bit more than that to be fair. Cyborg had to nearly kill herself to get down to 140, while we haven't seen Nunes above 135 since Strikeforce. Not to mention that Cyborg is significantly leaner and carries much more muscle mass. I know she mentioned that she was walking around 170 before UFC 219.

The second part is a good point, although hitting those counters against grapplers like Rousey/Tate and and undersized counter striker in Shevchenko is a different story than hitting them against Cyborg. Nunes had no fear of exchanging in the pocket with those girls. I also don't recall seeing Nunes work much off her back foot, as it seems like she's typically been the aggressor. She probably going to need to get Cyborg's respect early in the fight. I don't think she wants to end up with her back against the fence here.

All that said, this fight is definitely dog or pass for me at these prices.
 
According to her Twitter, Nunes walks around at 162 pounds, so 145 means a much nicer, less taxing weight cut. It should also help with her cardio, too.

Nice man, thank you! Wonder if she added mass or if she just cuts less for this one? If she added that between fights it will probably affect her cardio in a bad way, but if her weight in that embedded episode is around 162 pounds it will probably just help her cardio considering the easy cut. What do you think?
 
5-7 pounds probably isn't too far off but I think it's probably a little bit more than that to be fair. Cyborg had to nearly kill herself to get down to 140, while we haven't seen Nunes above 135 since Strikeforce. Not to mention that Cyborg is significantly leaner and carries much more muscle mass. I know she mentioned that she was walking around 170 before UFC 219.

Right, and as the post above mentions, Nunes walks around at 162. Considering that much of that extra weight is water, we're talking 5-7 pounds of meaningful mass.

t6p said:
The second part is a good point, although hitting those counters against grapplers like Rousey/Tate and and undersized counter striker in Shevchenko is a different story than hitting them against Cyborg.

Actually, hitting Cyborg should be a lot easier than hitting Shevchenko. Shevchenko is much faster, more elusive, and doesn't go forward and offer the type of openings Cyborg does.

t6p said:
Nunes had no fear of exchanging in the pocket with those girls.

She did against Shevchenko in their rematch.

t6p said:
I also don't recall seeing Nunes work much off her back foot,

She won't have to in order to beat Cyborg.

t6p said:
I don't think she wants to end up with her back against the fence here.

Why would that be so bad? Watching her most recent fights, I'm not that impressed with Cyborg's work in the clinch. She was taken down twice by Evinger there, and she didn't get off too many strikes there against either her, Kunitskaya, or Lansberg. And while Nunes' wrestling and takedown defense could be a lot better, she is very strong in the clinch.
 
I'm pretty sure the 'Nunes has bad cardio' motif is just a myth that people still hold as a fact..

Well it was a fact at one point, there's no arguing that she slowed down significantly in every fight that left round 1 earlier in her career. Whether or not she's completely fixed it is the question now.

A bigger concern might be her bottom game, as she's had a lot of trouble in the past when she's been put on her back. I'm not sure how likely it is that she ends up there, but if gets stuck under Cyborg I think she's going to take quite a bit of damage and we could see those cardio issues reappear.
 
Right, and as the post above mentions, Nunes walks around at 162. Considering that much of that extra weight is water, we're talking 5-7 pounds of meaningful mass.

I'm not sure how you're defining meaningful, but I'll just say that Cyborg is by far the biggest, strongest opponent that Nunes has faced and leave it at that.

Actually, hitting Cyborg should be a lot easier than hitting Shevchenko. Shevchenko is much faster, more elusive, and doesn't go forward and offer the type of openings Cyborg does.

Agreed.

She did against Shevchenko in their rematch.

Not really what I meant. As you said, Shev is faster, more elusive and doesn't go forward. I don't believe she was in fear of the power coming back as much as it was a case her knowing that her usual aggressive approach wasn't going to work against Shev's counters.

Why would that be so bad? Watching her most recent fights, I'm not that impressed with Cyborg's work in the clinch. She was taken down twice by Evinger there, and she didn't get off too many strikes there against either her, Kunitskaya, or Lansberg. And while Nunes' wrestling and takedown defense could be a lot better, she is very strong in the clinch.

I didn't mean from a clinch perspective, but I agree with you there.

How many units are you risking on Nunes btw?
 
I'm not sure how you're defining meaningful, but I'll just say that Cyborg is by far the biggest, strongest opponent that Nunes has faced and leave it at that.

Biggest and strongest? Sure. By far? No. Julia Budd was/is ridiculously big and strong (and like Cyborg, a true 145 pounder that could never make 135), and Sara McMann, Germain de Randamie, and Cat Zingano aren't slouches in that regard, either.

It's also notable that Budd, McMann, and Zingano are all significantly better wrestlers than Cyborg is.

Of course, you also have to look it at from the opposite perspective. Nunes is by far the best opponent Cyborg has ever faced, with the best striking.

t6p said:
How many units are you risking on Nunes btw?

2.5. The line is silly, but not quite worth breaking the bank on.

Amusingly, I've noticed that Nunes is habitually underrated by oddsmakers and bettors alike.

Big underdog against McMann (+225), very slight underdog against Shevchenko in the first fight (+100), big underdog against Tate (+230), moderate underdog against Rousey (+155), and a small underdog against Shevchenko in their rematch (+110).

Not really certain why, either.
 
Does anybody finds weird Aspen Ladd finishing Evinger inside one round and Cyborg needed two and a half?

Also I think Cyborg's hand speed is severely slower in UFC compared to her other fights. If you watch just her handspeed - nothing else - in her fight before her UFC debut v Ibragimova and her fight just 4 months later v Leslie it's very different. I looked it up several times to see if I just saw bad angle or something lied my eyes. No she IS slower. 100% was on roids in all her Invicta fights. Not only the more strict testing in UFC, but I think just the years of crazy training (she is very well known for that) might have an effect on this.
 
Biggest and strongest? Sure. By far? No. Julia Budd was/is ridiculously big and strong (and like Cyborg, a true 145 pounder that could never make 135), and Sara McMann, Germain de Randamie, and Cat Zingano aren't slouches in that regard, either.

It's also notable that Budd, McMann, and Zingano are all significantly better wrestlers than Cyborg is.

Of course, you also have to look it at from the opposite perspective. Nunes is by far the best opponent Cyborg has ever faced, with the best striking.



2.5. The line is silly, but not quite worth breaking the bank on.

Amusingly, I've noticed that Nunes is habitually underrated by oddsmakers and bettors alike.

Big underdog against McMann (+225), very slight underdog against Shevchenko in the first fight (+100), big underdog against Tate (+230), moderate underdog against Rousey (+155), and a small underdog against Shevchenko in their rematch (+110).

Not really certain why, either.

Some fair points there for sure. Honestly, I'm looking for reasons to play Nunes. I do think the line is a bit off and maybe worth a small play.

Obviously the lines against McMann, Rousey and Tate were a joke, but the Shev lines not so much. Particularly the second fight, which was a coin flip if there ever was one and I thought Shev edged it.
 
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Im on Nunes at +258. 1u

I think Cyborg is the rightful favorite but this fight does not look like a mismatch or anything to justify paying -300.

Amanda is better than any previous Cyborg opponents too.
 
I maybe found my second parlay leg for Jones - Latifi? Don't see how Latifi is gonna lose this fight. Maybe lose the fight on volume? He is not getting outwrestled, he has the much harder punch and Corey has very very weak chin.
 
I maybe found my second parlay leg for Jones - Latifi? Don't see how Latifi is gonna lose this fight. Maybe lose the fight on volume? He is not getting outwrestled, he has the much harder punch and Corey has very very weak chin.

Don't sleep on Alex here. He has a better than 'good' shot at taking this imo.
 
Steve, I understand that. But I'm uber confident in Jones in rematches. Not underestimating Gus for a second! Just think very highly of Jones.
I don't know if this is of any importance, but Wink has Bones, NBK and Siyar on this card (maybe there are more, but I don't know about).

I started researching Millender (thinking of betting Siyar), will do my due diligence as usual, then will watch Siyar in his last few fights. Will rewatch last 2 fights of the Lioness to be sure if I saw a potential in her for upsetting Cyborg or not. Don't feel the need to watch Jones (already watched him), but will rewatch Alex. Will look how Corey was doing v Glover.

Will bet all my confident picks, disregarding the odds, in a parlay with a unit, just like I did on the last card (lost that bet). It's hella difficult to win 2 fight parlays, let alone 3 or more, but I'm gonna do this one more time and again will sacrifice a unit to the betting gods. This time will be different I feel.

The fighters I want to put together are:
J.Jones/A.Nunes/I.Latifi/S.Bahadurzada
Reason there are 4 and not 3 is because not everybody are crazy + odds like on the previous card where I had over +2000 odds on the whole parlay. If they don't make Latifi and Bahadurzada underdogs this parlay won't get past +1500...
In the future I see James Vick beating up Felder kinda easy and I don't think he'll be unplayable at all - that's a bet I'll play with more than a pocket money. Also G.Neal to beat B.Muhammad is a bet to me on pick 'em or slight favourite. But these are fights far away from now...
 
Latifi/Anderson is 1.62/2.29 on a random Aussie book I'm on.
 
Latifi/Anderson is 1.62/2.29 on a random Aussie book I'm on.


1.57/2.55 on Ohmbet if you like Anderson
(i dont) Ill be waiting for the props for this one.
 
For now Im on:

Gus 1u @3.18
Nunes 1u @3.58
Chad 1u @1.99
Hall 1u @1.98
Condit 1u @2.18
Arlovski 1u @2.59

I like all of them.

BTW.. Guys... parlays are the best way to lose money in this sport. Go ahead if you want to but Im talking out of experience.
 
So far on Gus, Nunes, Harris, Anderson, and Siyar.
 
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