UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 - official bets

[Deleted member 579771]

I tried to tell people there was no value at -225.

There’s no such thing as a lock or a sure thing.
we look for value on implied probability

those odds implied fiziev wins 7 out of 10 times they fight. I thought more like 6. Therefore gaethje was a value play for me. +235 on gaethje was a no brainer, implied prob of him winning 30% or 3 out of 10.

That’s why I made the bet. Simple as that

fiz is supremely talented but he’s mortal. He can be hurt. Gaethje leg kicks made him fight southpaw early. He also slows down as seen in round 3.

gaethje, although shopworn, is still tough as nails. His boxing is good. His jab is serviceable. He wrecked fiz with his jab in rd 3.

mid they fought again in 6 months, where would you cap it? Personally I’d say closer to evens

I respectfully disagree, there are some locks if we ignore injury and DQ risk. For example last fight of Rodolfo Bellato, he had 1.11 odds. It something about -900 I suppose. He fought with small, underweight, fat journeyman. Also Gunnar Nelson was a lock in that sense, he has giant odds -350, for that type of missmatch. But I guess that dude was trolling with Fiziev being a lock.

 

[Bakayoko]

Leroy Duncan x Hadley 1,95 500$
Duncan KO/TKO/DQ 2,05 120$
Hadley ITD 1,72 100$
Miller x ME O 2,5 1,71 500$
Miller ITD 2,00 100$
Vettori R3 or DEC 1,68 400$
Dolidze SUB or DEC 5,50 40$
Patterson x Gunnar 1,76 300$
Patterson ITD 1,90 50$
Gunnar SUB 2,24 50$
Shore R3 or DEC 2,43 200$
Shore R2 5,50 30$
Amirkhani R1 15,00 10$
Mokaev/Filho O 1,5 x Wood/Carolina O 1,5 1,90 150$
Gaethje DEC 9,00 15$
Leon Split DEC 15,00 10$
And a couple of lower money parlays with the above plays

+337$ from these bets.Added pre-bet Shore O 1,5 x Fiziev 250$,live Dolidze 100$ and Usman 130$ and lost.Added 150$ Hardy live at 2,50,20$ more on Gaethje DEC at 9,50, and prebet Edwards 50$ at 3.25 ,Edwards DEC 30$ at 6,50 and 5$ more on Edwards Split/Majority.
Alltogether around 600$ profit.A back and forth night were I made profit after two weeks with UFC losses makes it feel good to be back on track.Was and still pissed a bit for paying juice on Miller,falling to the narative that Hardy is coming for a paycheck.On the other hand great read seeing value on Gaethje and Edwards decision with high odds gives me confidence,as even on ppv where bookies now the fighters very good they can still miss with the odds.I think i have spent my share of cretin bets and expect big profits for the rest of the year