ufc fight night 127

iGnP said:
He very well could... but I don't see how you came to this conclusion. Care to elaborate a bit?
Click to expand...
I'm a bigger Volkov fan than most, and I can only see him winning a boring split where Werrfu actively works against his best interests and gets out volumes.
 
Werdum/Volkov Fight

After watching some tape on both, I think Werdum wins this in a 5 round fight but I need the line to be a little tighter to bet Werdum's ML.

Watching Volkov tape, I can see him having octagon jitters against Timothy Johnson which maybe the reason for him not having an impressive performance. His striking looked good against Roy Nelson because he had a huge reach advantage (8'-9' inches). and Roy being pretty stationary, they looked a weight division apart too. His performance against Stefan Struve even though he got the KO, he wasn't too impressive, he was losing the striking battle and Struve was continuously landing the uppercut and overhand right but regardless of how good Struve's striking is, his striking defense has always been really bad which led him to being knocked out. You could use the argument, he had a hard time dealing with Struve's reach advantage.

Even though he has a 3' inch reach advantage against Werdum (80' to 77' inch reach), Werdum has a well diversified arsenal of strikes that are going to land on Volkov and it won't be so easy for him to keep Werdum at the end of his jab like he did to Nelson who only had the overhand right and left hook which landed on occasion. Werdum is very crafty and has a high fighting IQ aside from him running into Stipe Miocic with his hands down and he will find openings with his striking. Even though he is 40, he isn't shopworn or slowing down and still has a pretty good chin on him. He handled Marcin Tybura pretty handily over 5 rounds, with Tybura only winning a close 5th round and took a few head kicks from Tybura without dropping even though they weren't completely flush.

My book hasn't opened the line on the over/unders but I think if the line opens at 1.5 for o/u since it's a HW fight, that would be a really good line for the over or even if it was 2.5, the over bet would be pretty good depending on the price. I don't see the fight hitting the mat since Werdum's offensive wrestling isn't very good and Volkov having a sturdy base, it's more likely to be a calculated kickboxing/striking match with both guys having pretty good chins.
 
I don't see why people are calling Werdum's offensive wrestling 'bad'. I don't think it's necessarily bad, since he's been able to take down just about everybody that he's actually bothered trying to... he's just wildly, wildly inconsistent with his commitment to takedown attempts.
 
iGnP said:
He very well could... but I don't see how you came to this conclusion. Care to elaborate a bit?
Click to expand...

Just one of those gut feelings man I said it the other week about Ortega and Edgar
Don't quite know how it happens but it will, old vs young etc
Also I don't think Werdums fundamentals are very good, he gets away with murder because people don't want him getting on them

Forgive me because I'm in no way comparing Stipe to Volkov however I could see Werdum having early success then getting cocky and the longer fighter start running away with it later down the line
When Werdum ran out of ideas against Stipe.. he .. ran into him

At the end of the day very much like Edgar and Ortega I favour the favourite (Werdum) but 2/1 for Volkov? Got my attention
 
DarkneT said:
At the end of the day very much like Edgar and Ortega I favour the favourite (Werdum) but 2/1 for Volkov? Got my attention
Click to expand...

I'd go on more than gut feeling for this one. I've got a future on Volkov to be HW Champion, I had him against Struve, I just don't see the dude winning this without it being an ugly decision or Werdum's chin just suddenly failing spectacularly. Werdum's struck competitively with Overeem, Tybura, Browne, Hunt and Nelson. 4 of which have dominant, brutal KO wins over Volkov's best win, Struve.
 
DarkneT said:
Just one of those gut feelings man I said it the other week about Ortega and Edgar
Don't quite know how it happens but it will, old vs young etc
Also I don't think Werdums fundamentals are very good, he gets away with murder because people don't want him getting on them

Forgive me because I'm in no way comparing Stipe to Volkov however I could see Werdum having early success then getting cocky and the longer fighter start running away with it later down the line
When Werdum ran out of ideas against Stipe.. he .. ran into him

At the end of the day very much like Edgar and Ortega I favour the favourite (Werdum) but 2/1 for Volkov? Got my attention
Click to expand...
Dont compare mediocore Volkov to the next FW champ :)
 
DarkneT said:
Just one of those gut feelings man I said it the other week about Ortega and Edgar
Don't quite know how it happens but it will, old vs young etc
Also I don't think Werdums fundamentals are very good, he gets away with murder because people don't want him getting on them

Forgive me because I'm in no way comparing Stipe to Volkov however I could see Werdum having early success then getting cocky and the longer fighter start running away with it later down the line
When Werdum ran out of ideas against Stipe.. he .. ran into him

At the end of the day very much like Edgar and Ortega I favour the favourite (Werdum) but 2/1 for Volkov? Got my attention
Click to expand...

Werdum "ran out of ideas" vs Stipe two and a half minutes into the fight?

I think it was more that Werdum spent months listening to how easily he dismantled Cardio Cain, about how his striking had caught up to his grappling, etc. And hit the banquet circuit. Thought he was invincible.

cain-velasquez-fabricio-werdum-ufc-188.jpg

upload_2018-3-12_6-29-28.jpeg

Was only a 4 lb difference a the weigh in, so maybe he wasn't slacking off during training (looks a little flabbier though) but I do think he read his own press clippings.
 
mkess101 said:
Werdum "ran out of ideas" vs Stipe two and a half minutes into the fight?

I think it was more that Werdum spent months listening to how easily he dismantled Cardio Cain, about how his striking had caught up to his grappling, etc. And hit the banquet circuit. Thought he was invincible.

cain-velasquez-fabricio-werdum-ufc-188.jpg

View attachment 354387

Was only a 4 lb difference a the weigh in, so maybe he wasn't slacking off during training (looks a little flabbier though) but I do think he read his own press clippings.
Click to expand...

Nah he realised quickly Stipes defence was legit and got stupid

Which is exactly why I can never bet on Werdum, he does dumb shit constantly
 
DarkneT said:
Nah he realised quickly Stipes defence was legit and got stupid

Which is exactly why I can never bet on Werdum, he does dumb shit constantly
Click to expand...

Stipes's defense isn't that great though LOL. He keeps his hands low and has been hit plenty in his career. Werdum did something stupid for sure, but it wasn't because in 2 minutes he realized Stipe had some impenetrable defense. It was because he thought he was so good that everyone would just be a cakewalk.
 
DarkneT said:
Just one of those gut feelings man I said it the other week about Ortega and Edgar
Don't quite know how it happens but it will, old vs young etc
Also I don't think Werdums fundamentals are very good, he gets away with murder because people don't want him getting on them

Forgive me because I'm in no way comparing Stipe to Volkov however I could see Werdum having early success then getting cocky and the longer fighter start running away with it later down the line
When Werdum ran out of ideas against Stipe.. he .. ran into him

At the end of the day very much like Edgar and Ortega I favour the favourite (Werdum) but 2/1 for Volkov? Got my attention
Click to expand...

I apologize but I must say that there were good reasons to bet Ortega beyond a gut feeling. Good results do not equal proficiency but of course the inverse is true as well. Oh and wasnt the Stipe fight 2:30 minutes? You said t yourself but I must agree, Volkov and Stipe are not even comparable.
 
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