UFC fight night 138

[Card]

 

[JMoore]

I think Souk feels like he has something to prove after the O'Malley fiasco. He seems to have a chip on his shoulder.
Martinez on the other hand looked pretty overwhelmed at the face off.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

lol Glom has the size advantage.

 

[zeckdo]

Court McGee looks gigantic! Must be the angle cuz holy shit he looks like 215lbs.

Villante looks like he could make welterweight with a proper diet.

Souk looks cut while Martinez looks a bit soft.

Feel like Madge is gonna look way better than +400 in there. he's got a good amount of size on Edwards, if he can use his jab and kicks from his muay thai experience, I expect this fight to be close.

 

[thephantom]

Decided to go with Golm,because Bhullar cant do anything except wrestling...

 

[DevilsPt2]

I wanted to like a lot of dogs, and have bet a few (McGee/Smith) and may still bet a few others after more tape. But I just rewatched Edwards/Trujillo (again hoping I would like Madge) and Edwards didn't get lit at all. Fight mostly played out in the clinch with Edwards feeding him a steady diet of knees then slipped throwing a kick, scrambled to top position, mounted him, flattened him out after Trujillo gave his back and finished it there. If there is a different fight showing Edwards getting lit up that you mistakenly thought was this one, please let me know. I would like to fade a young fighter with little experience at a big number, but from what I have seen I think Madge probably gets sparked.

Yea Trujillo was the fight I was talking about, sure he only backed Edwards up for about 20 seconds but I could see someone who can avoid his inevitable response winning a decision. I dont think hes goin to fight smart and use his wrestling advantage, I think he'll just keep missing. He expects to KO people and doesnt think he even has to use his wrestling imo, this will just lead to him pursuing the KO thats not coming. Or he could be the next Woodley lol.

Another thing I want to add is his power hides his defensive short comings and possibly a weak chin. He leave a lot of opportunity for his opponent when hes moving forward, good counter strikers could be a problem but thats prob not goin to be an issue here.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

These are just horrible predictions in this article. And some of them were wrong in UFC 229.
https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/10...ght-oezdemir-vs-smith-staff-picks-predictions


<{CMPALM}>

"Golm doesn’t seem experienced enough to know how to change the dynamics of a fight when he’s not immediately physically in charge. Bhullar may not recognize when he’s walking into trouble, but his combination of aggressive power punching, clinch control, and takedown offense should be enough to keep Golm off balance all fight. Arjan Bhullar by decision."

I could say the same about for Bhullar whom only had one fight this year and lost with a submission. It seems are doubting Golm possibles and potential.

I guess having a record of five wins by KO and finished all wins, all of them in the first round, and a submission is not experience according to this article lol.

 

[Tyrrax]

Feel like Madge is gonna look way better than +400 in there. he's got a good amount of size on Edwards, if he can use his jab and kicks from his muay thai experience, I expect this fight to be close.

None of the podcasts I listened to seem to have done proper research on Madge, the guy's a brown belt with 3 stripes, loves BJJ (lots of pictures of him in gi on his instagram) and submitted a black belt in one of his MMA fights, hard to say for sure how good he is on the ground, but I know at least some of his BJJ training was at Tiger Muay Thai (legit) don't know how much was in South Africa or how good they are there.

as for Muay Thai he has over 100 pro fights, mostly in Thailand and in 2011 when he started doing MMA he was ranked 2nd in the world by WPMF at 154lbs, lots of titles etc
When he had 70 he only had 3 losses
When he was 22-1 he had won 17 by ko

His single TKO loss in MMA was weird (his mouthpiece broke or something?) lots of brawling before that and he was dominating.

+430 is ridiculous (on bookmaker)
He did seem pretty easy to hit with heavy right hands by Dave Mazany and Edwards definitely has a very hard right hand, but he should be by far the better striker, probably much better BJJ and definitely much worse wrestling.

I suspect Edwards will want to stand and bang and get another KO, if he's too dumb to use his wrestling then I'm pretty confident he'll lose, having a lot of power doesn't usually get you the win against vastly superior technique.
If he does take Madge down a lot he'll be in some danger at least, I'd probly side with the wrestler to stay on top not get submitted and win most scrambles but who knows..

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

These are just horrible predictions in this article. And some of them were wrong in UFC 229.
https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/10...ght-oezdemir-vs-smith-staff-picks-predictions


<{CMPALM}>

Once you've identified analysts as utterly ignorant (and there are plenty of examples in that link above), you can safely ignore them.

 

[Bestonian]

I'm pretty big on Fishgold as I stated earlier. My reasoning being:
Fishgold not only was the LW Champ in Cage Warriors (same org as McGregor was before UFC) but also holds the record for most title defenses in LW, three.
He is pretty good on his feet but not better than Kattar but Fishgold does Khabibesque clinch pushing where he can go for takedowns. If it hits the ground then Fishgold is going to be absolutely dominating, Fishgold actually prefers the ground and is a great sub artist. On top of that Fishgold has gone 5 rounds quite a few time and still have gas left in the tank.

Him moving to a lower weight class vs a guy who has unproven ground game is a good omen.
Fishgold by submission is 6.50 odds and a great pick, imho.

edit: forgot to add that Kattar is a BJJ blue belt. He did beat a legit black belt in Burgos but IIRC Burgos has fallen in love with his hands and isn't really trying to go to the ground at all.

 

[Gugabe]

These are just horrible predictions in this article. And some of them were wrong in UFC 229.
https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/10...ght-oezdemir-vs-smith-staff-picks-predictions


<{CMPALM}>

"Golm doesn’t seem experienced enough to know how to change the dynamics of a fight when he’s not immediately physically in charge. Bhullar may not recognize when he’s walking into trouble, but his combination of aggressive power punching, clinch control, and takedown offense should be enough to keep Golm off balance all fight. Arjan Bhullar by decision."

I could say the same about for Bhullar whom only had one fight this year and lost with a submission. It seems are doubting Golm possibles and potential.

I guess having a record of five wins by KO and finished all wins, all of them in the first round, and a submission is not experience according to this article lol.

Yeah. BE staff seem to be giving less and less fucks over time. I think the issue is them not being accountable to records, and a lot of lazy wikicapping.

I'm pretty big on Fishgold as I stated earlier. My reasoning being:
Fishgold not only was the LW Champ in Cage Warriors (same org as McGregor was before UFC) but also holds the record for most title defenses in LW, three.
He is pretty good on his feet but not better than Kattar but Fishgold does Khabibesque clinch pushing where he can go for takedowns. If it hits the ground then Fishgold is going to be absolutely dominating, Fishgold actually prefers the ground and is a great sub artist. On top of that Fishgold has gone 5 rounds quite a few time and still have gas left in the tank.

Him moving to a lower weight class vs a guy who has unproven ground game is a good omen.
Fishgold by submission is 6.50 odds and a great pick, imho.

I kind of like Fishgold's grappling advantage, but I think your CW reasoning is insane troll logic.

 

[Bestonian]

These are just horrible predictions in this article. And some of them were wrong in UFC 229.
https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/10...ght-oezdemir-vs-smith-staff-picks-predictions


<{CMPALM}>

oh wow... i usually write and reason my bets with the logic of a 5 year old but this write up is horrible.

 

[Yotsuya]

Have we ever seen Bhullar actually effectively wrestle fuck someone though? He ended up on top of Henrique early but did literally nothing with it, just laid heavy on him like a big sack of shit. I believe Rogan even commented that many refs would have stood them up.

I remember him nicking the first two rounds of that bout and completely giving away the third against a much fresher looking Henrique, who was out striking (!) Bhuller in the last round. A red flag for me because Henrique has next to no power in his shots and his striking is basic at best. And he's a fighter with noted bad stamina but despite that looked the much fresher fighter against Bhuller....

Lol, true. Bhullar threw 35 strikes during first two rounds, took Henrique down and rested the rest of the R2 on top of him. Henrique threw twice as much R1-2 and had cardio to outland Bhullar 2:1 in the third. Bhullar will be in trouble in R3 unless he's changed up his game. Even if Golm needs to wrestle so much that he'll lose power in his hands like happened against Johnson there's a good chance he'll take Bhullar out with clinch knees he hit Johnson with or kicks his legs out and gets a tko on ground. Bhullar's chin has not been tested, we don't know how he fights off his back and he does not like low kicks at all.

 

[MMAOracle]

I just placed my bet on volkan. after watching their tape, here is my assessment

my assessment of volkan
1) super aggressive (he creates critical moments unexpectedly)
2) gas tank is fair (1st round strong/2nd round fair/ 3rd round fair)
3) strong defense
4) good at escaping ground
5) deadly punch

my assessment of Anthony smith
1) gas tank is slightly better than Volkan
2) has a tendency to expose his chin after he strikes
3) reserved striking (only goes in for the kill if he is absolutely sure so he sometimes misses critical moments)
4) sloppy ground
5) moderate defense

My prediction is
Volkan by KO in 2nd round

 

[raketmannen]

I guess having a record of five wins by KO and finished all wins, all of them in the first round, and a submission is not experience according to this article lol.

Well that's 100% correct, if you go out and finish all your opponents early you don't get enough cage time to gain experience, you never have to handle any adversity... Before the Johnson fight he had a total of 10 minutes inside the cage profesionally, that's the opposite of being experienced.
Compare that to Bhullar who have won three 3 round decisions, one 5 round decision, got a couple of finishes

 

[rille31]

So this starts the usual time or one hour early?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

So this starts the usual time or one hour early?

Usual time.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Well that's 100% correct, if you go out and finish all your opponents early you don't get enough cage time to gain experience, you never have to handle any adversity... Before the Johnson fight he had a total of 10 minutes inside the cage profesionally, that's the opposite of being experienced.
Compare that to Bhullar who have won three 3 round decisions, one 5 round decision, got a couple of finishes

Exactly the problem with Bhullar he can only do a Dec victory for majority of his fights. Its being only a few fights that he had done a TKO. Some predicting that Bhullar would do tko over Golm is a ridicules bet.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Fishgold is very interesting prospect. He is very athletic, strong grappler, and his striking was massively improved in his last fight. His striking should look even better with a year layoff to continue to train and improve.

Kattar has wins vs Burgos and Fili, but neither was THAT impressive. Sure he won 30-27 vs Fili, but he barely won each round. Against Burgos it looked like he was going to lose before he got his first KO since 2011.

Not only is Fishgold young and improving after dominating Cage Warriors-- he also is moving down to 145 pounds after fighting at 155 in CW and he looked great on the scales. Fighting smaller guys is very favorable for a chain wrestler.

Kattar's grappling defense is completely unproven, and if he had THAT bad holes in his leg kick defense vs Moicano, can we really expect it to be airtight? Fishgold will probably get at least some takedowns, and could catch him in a Guillotine or work to a RNC.

Obviously Kattar has the advantage standing up with his jab, but Fishgold is faster and probably more powerful. Kattar *should* win the standup but he's not going to dominate and I don't see him getting the KO.

Fishgold at +2xx is a great bet. He is definitely more likely to finish, and this is going to be a close decision fairly often too. There is no reason for Kattar to be this juiced.

 

[AmericanBeauty]

my only worry is volkans gastank but apart from that hes the superior fighter.
Rumble often mentioned how good oezdemir takes his shots, they do alot of sparring.
I don't see it going smiths way.

Golm is taller and weighs more and well overpower the overrated indian dude.