UFC fight night 138

Look at Thiago Santos, he was also chinny at mw but looked far better at lhw. I think Smiths chin will hold up better at lhw. He is quite durable and if he survives r1 than it will be interesting. I woudlnt bet Volkan at this odds because there is a risk he will lose Smith at dog odds is the way to go.
It isnt worth to bet him risk/profit wise

You mean the The Thiago Santos that blasted Smith earlier this year?

What is your definition of "durable"? In Smith's 13 losses he has been finished 12 times. That is far from durable
 
You mean the The Thiago Santos that blasted Smith earlier this year?

What is your definition of "durable"? In Smith's 13 losses he has been finished 12 times. That is far from durable
But look at his ufc carrer, he took beatings in some fights but came back strong and won.
 
But look at his ufc carrer, he took beatings in some fights but came back strong and won.

I am quite familiar with his UFC career. But I understand that some fighters have the Power of The Avengers and come on strong and defeat the enemy!

However this is a betting forum and I was trying to provide some analysis. Please enlighten us on your in depth analysis of this fight.
 
I am quite familiar with his UFC career. But I understand that some fighters have the Power of The Avengers and come on strong and defeat the enemy!

However this is a betting forum and I was trying to provide some analysis. Please enlighten us on your in depth analysis of this fight.
I see Smith surviving r1 and finishing Volkan in r3.
 
If the fight starts R3, I'm hammering Smith. Volkan's path to victory is a KO1 IMO.
 
And his last fight was in July 2017 ? Thats A concern for Volkan bettors too
I'm more concerned with how he gave up against DC than I am anything. Also the instaboop nature of Volkan's KOs doesn't fill me with huge confidence, since he's connected on guys with big swings and not visibly perturbed them. It's possible he just had two fluke KOs on opponents that hadn't quite settled into the fight.
 
He was sticking his jab in Zaleski's face effectively. Nothing Zaleski's tried until the crazy spinning kick really accomplished much.
That was such a small sample size of the fight, I think it's silly to think the fight would continue that way for all 3 rounds. And that's why fighters have cornermen in their corner to give them advice and change things up in between rounds.
 
Volkan has the touch of death in the clinch, against the cage, that's it. Dude is pretty accurate and powerful at punching the side of the head during an underhook battle. He knocked down Cirkunov with it, and rocked Manuwa bad, Manuwa was really ko'd by the way Volkan pushed him down and Jimi fell right on his head. I know it wasn't much, but Smith looked like he was very comfortable in the clinch against Rashad.
 
But look at his ufc carrer, he took beatings in some fights but came back strong and won.
Anthony has heart and that is for sure. But you have to take into consideration that the beatings he took were from smaller men.
 
no action for me on the main event but probably live betting smith if he survives r1.
 
Why do people think Volkan's leagues ahead of Anthony Smith? It's not like Volkan's shown incredible striking or anything. It's 2 instaboops off armpunches and a dubious decision against OSP. If he were that insanely powerful normally, I think he hurts DC a lot more. Smith's proven a better chin, cardio and heart which goes a long way in what I think'll be a fairly non-technical slugging fest.
Because he is..
Smith getting all that hype because he beat two absolutely washed up chinny fighters. Watch his career before Evans fight

He started well vs Thiago but got hit in the body and folded
Lombard was winning that fight before he gassed. Smith enjoyed big reach advantage in that fight but could not do anything with it
Sanchez the ultimate bum was beating him too until he gassed like he always does
Elvis - who the fook is that guy

Smith been incredibly lucky. He is just like Derrick. Losing the fight and pulls out the win out of nowhere. Disgusting

This is the first time (maybe other than Santos) when he faces a legit guy who is in his prime. Pluss add to that Smith is chinny as fuck. And volkan has big power.

People fading Volkan because of this debut fight which he took on short notice and beat very tough guy in OSP. Win over OSP>everything that Smith has ever done. Imo this is a mismatch
 
Because he is..
Smith getting all that hype because he beat two absolutely washed up chinny fighters. Watch his career before Evans fight

He started well vs Thiago but got hit in the body and folded
Lombard was winning that fight before he gassed. Smith enjoyed big reach advantage in that fight but could not do anything with it
Sanchez the ultimate bum was beating him too until he gassed like he always does
Elvis - who the fook is that guy

Smith been incredibly lucky. He is just like Derrick. Losing the fight and pulls out the win out of nowhere. Disgusting

This is the first time (maybe other than Santos) when he faces a legit guy who is in his prime. Pluss add to that Smith is chinny as fuck. And volkan has big power.

People fading Volkan because of this debut fight which he took on short notice and beat very tough guy in OSP. Win over OSP>everything that Smith has ever done. Imo this is a mismatch
Mismatch is taking things too far but I agree Volkan is the rightful favourite and OSP > Smiths' wins.
 
Because he is..
Smith getting all that hype because he beat two absolutely washed up chinny fighters. Watch his career before Evans fight

He started well vs Thiago but got hit in the body and folded
Lombard was winning that fight before he gassed. Smith enjoyed big reach advantage in that fight but could not do anything with it
Sanchez the ultimate bum was beating him too until he gassed like he always does
Elvis - who the fook is that guy

Smith been incredibly lucky. He is just like Derrick. Losing the fight and pulls out the win out of nowhere. Disgusting

This is the first time (maybe other than Santos) when he faces a legit guy who is in his prime. Pluss add to that Smith is chinny as fuck. And volkan has big power.

People fading Volkan because of this debut fight which he took on short notice and beat very tough guy in OSP. Win over OSP>everything that Smith has ever done. Imo this is a mismatch
Volkan didn't beat OSP, that decision was incredibly iffy (http://mmadecisions.com/decision/7740/Volkan-Oezdemir-vs-Ovince-Saint-Preux) and OSP looked really, really flat in it. I'm not saying Smith's particularly good, but I think this is a fight between two overperformers and haven't seen anything particularly encouraging out of Volkan. Smith, for all his failings, has heart, cardio and durability. If it's going to be two mediocre kickboxers going for it, I'll go for the one that doesn't quit over the one that quit badly in his last fight.
 
So I tortured myself by watching a bunch of Sarah Moras and Talita Bernardo fights. After doing so, I absolutely can't fathom how Moras is a -220 favorite.

Bernardo has significantly better wrestling and at least equal jits. Their stand-up is probably about equal or a very tiny edge for Bernardo; they both suck overall, and there are things Bernardo does better, and things Moras does better. Moras does have better cardio (although Bernardo looked better in that regard against Aldana), and generally does more with top position than Bernardo does.

So again, how is this a -220 fight? Based on what I saw, this is very much a pick'em fight. I would imagine it's a close decision either way.
 
While I ruminate a little more on how confident I am with Talita Bernardo and how much I want to bet on her, I did lay down

5 units on Moras-Bernardo going the distance at -265.
 
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