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@PolarBearPaulVarelans
Any thoughts on the Tuivasa Hunsucker fight? I know you were on Tai to beat Mayes, curious to hear what you think here.
I'm super-salty about missing the under 1.5 opener at -110, even though I was home at the time. So salty I didn't even hit the -170, which I probably should have.
Honestly, I think all the various props with Tuivasa, including ultra-specific ones like Tuivasa TKO/KO round 1 at -140, have value, but I may just play Tuivasa ML to guarantee money, as I'm struggling to think of bizarre scenarios where Hunsucker wins. There is definitely value at -475, but I'm hoping it improves even further prior to the bout.
Hunsucker is just an unbelievable bum; I put a lot of money on Vaderaa, himself a bum, on -250 against him on Contender's and thought it was terrific value.
Hunsucker's striking is abysmal, on par with guys who have boxed for a month or two, his weak, slow leg kicks are a joke, he sticks his chain straight up in the air while throwing wide, telegraphed punches, just begging to be hit, and to top it all off, his grappling sucks and he has 3-4 minutes of cardio.
For all of Tuivasa's flaws, like his lack of defense or grappling, he has genuinely good offensive striking, and not only his punches, but one of the most brutal leg kicks in the heavyweight division.
Can Hunsucker get lucky and connect on a punch? Yeah, maybe, but he actually lacks power, and we've seen before that Tuivasa has a tough chin, eating some huge shots from JDS until the sequence that floored him, although even then, Tuivasa was perfectly cognizant, he simply couldn't get out of mount.
So I guess it would require an absolutely perfect counter from Hunsucker followed by perfect follow-up strikes?
I can't imagine we're talking any better than 5-10% though, which is either -1900 to -900 for Tuivasa.