UFC FN 128 - Barboza vs Lee - Atlantic City

[Jamah]

Jesus christ LaFlare's still around? Isn't he like 40 or something

I believe that's more of a fade on Garcia, right?

He's 34 lol

 

[mkess101]

Do you like fight goes the distance? I can get it at around -164.

Yeah. I think Simon KO is by far the most likely way it doesn't see the cards too. Playing GTD with a small hedge of Simon KO at +500 seems totally reasonable to me.

Not how I'm playing it but for sure it's a viable way to play it imo.

 

[vkram]

Yeah. I think Simon KO is by far the most likely way it doesn't see the cards too. Playing GTD with a small hedge of Simon KO at +500 seems totally reasonable to me.

Not how I'm playing it but for sure it's a viable way to play it imo.

I hit it for 2 units pretty much because it has value in comparison to odds offered by other bookies. It's on Betfair btw if anyone wants to jump on.

 

[JBJISGOAT]

So far took:
Edgar ml + Vargas ml for 2 units.
Willis tko/ko +114
Barboza rd 3 +1500 and rd 4 +1825

Thinking branch at +145 as well.

 

[mkess101]

I hit it for 2 units pretty much because it has value in comparison to odds offered by other bookies. It's on Betfair btw if anyone wants to jump on.

Yeah your odds WAY better than 5d for sure.

 

[P4p Islam]

Jesus christ LaFlare's still around? Isn't he like 40 or something

I believe that's more of a fade on Garcia, right?

I like Laflares style paired with the fact that Garcia can only go 1 hard round.

It’s the perfect storm with the odds he’s getting.

 

[zeckdo]

My official FN 128 bets Fights 50$ each

Cummins+120
Bahdruzda+110
Simon wins by dec+171
Garcia+132
Hooker wins inside+290
John wins by dec+161
Branch+145
Barboza+135

Prop bets 50$ each
9 fights end in a dec+1187
10 fights end in a dec+3975
4 fights end in a dec+866

0 fights end in KO+2525
1 fight ends in KO+585
5 fights end in KO+749

4 fights end in sub+1262
5 fights end in sub+4150
6 fights end in sub+22000

Last event I won 695$ lets make this 2 winning events in a row!!!!!!!!

i think you are nuts for betting 50 bucks on exact fight props but good luck

 

[mkess101]

The o7.5 fights to end in KO/TKO on 5d is now UP to +47300 LOL. If this is a line error, instead of pulling it the line actually got BETTER.

I currently have a whopping $7 on it to win about $3300. Of course, it's probably about +47300 that I'd actually get paid if it was to hit anyway, so I'm not gonna put anything more on it.

 

[TITS]

How many fights do you guys think will go the distance?

 

[null]

The o7.5 fights to end in KO/TKO on 5d is now UP to +47300 LOL. If this is a line error, instead of pulling it the line actually got BETTER.

I currently have a whopping $7 on it to win about $3300. Of course, it's probably about +47300 that I'd actually get paid if it was to hit anyway, so I'm not gonna put anything more on it.

I have $2 on it as well at the opening price, along with an array of other KO/TKOs over props. We should get paid in the unlikely event we do get 8 KO/TKOs out of 11 fights.

 

[mkess101]

I have $2 on it as well at the opening price, along with an array of other KO/TKOs over props. We should get paid in the unlikely event we do get 8 KO/TKOs out of 11 fights.

You don't think they will claim "obvious line error"? None of these have ever even been close to odds like this. Even picking the exact # of KO's at 7 only pays +8000 or so.

It's obviously probably moot, but I gotta believe they might void the bets at some point. I hope not. Risking 7 bucks to potentially win $3300 is fine by me on something that's pretty unlikely but hardly impossible.

 

[aquamanpunch]

Does 5 Dimes still do one free monthly withdrawal in like some 2 hour window on Monday or Tuesday morning? Can it be a check or what? Thanks in advance!

 

[null]

You don't think they will claim "obvious line error"? None of these have ever even been close to odds like this. Even picking the exact # of KO's at 7 only pays +8000 or so.

It's obviously probably moot, but I gotta believe they might void the bets at some point. I hope not. Risking 7 bucks to potentially win $3300 is fine by me on something that's pretty unlikely but hardly impossible.

I don't think so. 5D doesn't create those lines in a complete vacuum and I have seen a similar jump between a really unlikely event prop like that and the next most really, really unlikely event prop like that before.

 

[mkess101]

I don't think so. 5D doesn't create those lines in a complete vacuum and I have seen a similar jump between a really unlikely event prop like that and the next most really, really unlikely event prop like that before.

Interesting. It just seems absolutely bizarre to me that the payout for guessing that EXACTLY seven fights ending in KO/TKO would be 80-1 while the payout for guessing that anywhere from 8-11 fights ending in KO/TKO is now 473-1. Makes absolutely zero sense. But...if it were to hit that would be pretty sweet.

 

[clemente]

if Willis doesn't get KO in R1, then live all in on Sherman

 

[mkess101]

if Willis doesn't get KO in R1, then live all in on Sherman

Umm...what?

3 of Willis last four fights have gone past round 1. He's won them all.

2 of Sherman's last 3 losses came after round 1.

Are you just looking at it like the flabbier looking guy must only have 5 minutes of cardio and then is done? Because I think that's pretty flawed thinking if so...

 

[clemente]

Umm...what?

3 of Willis last four fights have gone past round 1. He's won them all.

2 of Sherman's last 3 losses came after round 1.

Are you just looking at it like the flabbier looking guy must only have 5 minutes of cardio and then is done? Because I think that's pretty flawed thinking if so...

You should watch these fights how he looks past round 1, no way he keeps up with Shermans pace

 

[mkess101]

You should watch these fights how he looks past round 1, no way he keeps up with Shermans pace

He still hit TD's. Of course he slows down, most HW's do.

Sherman's defense doesn't improve after rd 1 either, which is why he's been starched in rds 2 and 3 within his last 5 fights.

 

[DevilsPt2]

How many fights do you guys think will go the distance?

The only finshes I'm fairly confident in are Santos and Lee. Secondarily I think Willis and Hooker have a good shot at a finish(more Willis than Hooker) but I think they both take the DEC. Then you got a small chance of Edgar getting a SUB and a small chance Chagas finishes Siyar.

 

[OutRun]

The only finshes I'm fairly confident in are Santos and Lee. Secondarily I think Willis and Hooker have a good shot at a finish(more Willis than Hooker) but I think they both take the DEC. Then you got a small chance of Edgar getting a SUB and a small chance Chagas finishes Siyar.

That Siyar-Luan fight is definitely not going to the cards.