UFC FN 130 PBP/Discussion

[mkess101]

Pretty much all the strikes thrown were considered significant. But even if you wanna look at total strikes, Till outlands WB 40/129 to 31/127. To your comment about Till not really doing much while walking forward, I agree with you, but again, WB wasn't doing anything to "win" those rounds. FWIW I thought Till won rounds 2, 3, and 5

@mkess101 WB landed 8 shots to Till's head while Till landed 18 to WB's head.

I rate hard body strikes similarly to head strikes. WB landed some hard, clean body shots (kicks and punches). Obviously it's all a bit subjective. Till's "landed" strikes just didn't look as flush or clean. But again, when you are talking about such low #'s overall, it's silly to complain either way. No matter who won, the other side would be complaining but neither really has merit imo. If it's a really close fight like this was and isn't ruled a draw, on a betting forum about half the people are gonna be unhappy. But we still need to stay as objective as possible. I scored it for WB, but really don't have a big issue with the fact it went the other way.

 

[iGnP]

I rate hard body strikes similarly to head strikes. WB landed some hard, clean body shots (kicks and punches). Obviously it's all a bit subjective. Till's "landed" strikes just didn't look as flush or clean. But again, when you are talking about such low #'s overall, it's silly to complain either way. No matter who won, the other side would be complaining but neither really has merit imo. If it's a really close fight like this was and isn't ruled a draw, on a betting forum about half the people are gonna be unhappy. But we still need to stay as objective as possible. I scored it for WB, but really don't have a big issue with the fact it went the other way.

Right. At the end of the day, at closing odds, Till +130 had value and WB -150 didnt. If they were to fight again tomorrow, I think most would bet Till at +130

 

[timmyclax22]

I rate hard body strikes similarly to head strikes. WB landed some hard, clean body shots (kicks and punches). Obviously it's all a bit subjective. Till's "landed" strikes just didn't look as flush or clean. But again, when you are talking about such low #'s overall, it's silly to complain either way. No matter who won, the other side would be complaining but neither really has merit imo. If it's a really close fight like this was and isn't ruled a draw, on a betting forum about half the people are gonna be unhappy. But we still need to stay as objective as possible. I scored it for WB, but really don't have a big issue with the fact it went the other way.

I don’t think Till backers would be complaining when almost everyone in the media including Mcarthy scores it for WB.

Like if all the media scored it for Till I’d say shit, maybe he did win.

 

[mkess101]

Right. At the end of the day, at closing odds, Till +130 had value and WB -150 didnt. If they were to fight again tomorrow, I think most would bet Till at +130

Yeah for sure. I bet WB when he was -115 and again at +105. Don't really regret it, I ended up basically paying a little juice on what ended up being a coin flip that I lost.

I actually did have Till dec in a RR that I hit 3 of 4 on, so that covered a good amount of my WB losses anyway. I actually had forgotten I threw that in there. I hit 2 of those today. Along with my absolutely dumb luck live bets of Allen at +130 and +500 (which I won only by his miracle choke he slapped on), those are the reason I ended up with a small profit today.

 

[mkess101]

I don’t think Till backers would be complaining when almost everyone in the media including Mcarthy scores it for WB.

Like if all the media scored it for Till I’d say shit, maybe he did win.

When people lose $ on a close fight they complain (me included at times). Whether the complaints have merit or not (and regardless of media scores), when money is involved people will complain.

 

[Gugabe]

Right. At the end of the day, at closing odds, Till +130 had value and WB -150 didnt. If they were to fight again tomorrow, I think most would bet Till at +130

Till winning a decision that 8% of the media agreed with doesn't make him value at coinflip odds. What sort of insane troll logic is that? WB essentially got the fight that most WB backers were expecting, where he outlanded a fairly-stationary Till by a decent margin in effective striking, and took a hard knock in there. Based on what we've seen, if the fight took place in a 'even' playing field so far as judging bias was concerned (And there was no reason to automatically assume it would be a factor pre-fight. We've had locals lose contentious splits lately, like Gastelum), WB @ -150 makes a lot of sense. If the media was split dead-even on the decision, Till +130'd be the value side.

You made a silly play that was the definition of public juiced, and got bailed out by shoddy judging. It's okay, but it doesn't make the original play +EV. It's like if I was to say that Allen -250 was EV since he won.

 

[mkess101]

Till winning a decision that 8% of the media agreed with doesn't make him value at coinflip odds. What sort of insane troll logic is that? WB essentially got the fight that most WB backers were expecting, where he outlanded a fairly-stationary Till by a decent margin in effective striking, and took a hard knock in there. Based on what we've seen, if the fight took place in a 'even' playing field so far as judging bias was concerned (And there was no reason to automatically assume it would be a factor pre-fight), WB @ -150 makes a lot of sense.

You made a silly play that was the definition of public juiced, and got bailed out by shoddy judging. It's okay, but it doesn't make the original play +EV. It's like if I was to say that Allen -250 was EV since he won.

I was on WB and thought he won, but it was close enough that I'd say laying -150 juice didn't have value. I bet him at better odds than that so I still believe my bets had a bit of value but -150? Nah. And comparing it to Allen's miracle? C'mon.

 

[iGnP]

Till winning a decision that 8% of the media agreed with doesn't make him value at coinflip odds. What sort of insane troll logic is that? WB essentially got the fight that most WB backers were expecting, where he outlanded a fairly-stationary Till by a decent margin in effective striking, and took a hard knock in there. Based on what we've seen, if the fight took place in a 'even' playing field so far as judging bias was concerned (And there was no reason to automatically assume it would be a factor pre-fight), WB @ -150 makes a lot of sense.

You made a silly play that was the definition of public juiced, and got bailed out by shoddy judging. It's okay, but it doesn't make the original play +EV. It's like if I was to say that Allen -250 was EV since he won.

But I didn’t have money on the fight. I arbed out and took an insignificant profit after Till missed weight and I was holding a Till +140 ticket with WB sitting at -125

I don’t think i said anything that’s worthy of being deemed trolling. WB didn’t outland Till by a decent margin, Till actually outlanded him according to FM. In order for WB to have value at -150, he’d need to win >60% of the time. With the way the fight played out today, I can’t see how you feel like WB -150 was the right side. Both WB and Till landed between 5-10 strikes per round with Till probably getting the better of “octagon control”. If you wanna argue the FM stats aren’t accurate, I can’t confirm them obv but that’s what I’m going off

 

[TITS]

I got Till at +140 (on an open parlay) with Magny and Elias.

Hate the Spartan all you want, but he was the only lock besides Magny on that entire card. Still have both of them on pending parlays, along with my "dark horse" underdog Claudio Silva. Just got to close it out on Friday with some guaranteed winners.

 

[Oblivian]

Another disappointing circle jerk.

 

[mkess101]

I got Till at +140 (on an open parlay) with Magny and Elias.

Hate the Spartan all you want, but he was the only lock besides Magny on that entire card. Still have both of them on pending parlays, along with my "dark horse" underdog Claudio Silva. Just got to close it out on Friday with some guaranteed winners.

Elias didn't look like a "Lock" or a -400 favorite. Despite the scorecards, all the rounds were close and with a couple of judges seeing it a bit differently he potentially could have lost that fight. Don't get me wrong, I scored it for him 29-28 but acting like he just breezed through as a -400 favorite is silly.

 

[TITS]

Elias didn't look like a "Lock" or a -400 favorite. Despite the scorecards, all the rounds were close and with a couple of judges seeing it a bit differently he potentially could have lost that fight. Don't get me wrong, I scored it for him 29-28 but acting like he just breezed through as a -400 favorite is silly.

Elias outstruck Trevor 77 to 41, two judges scored it 30-27. My point was that I saw him as a guaranteed win. I had no worries putting him on multiple parlays.

 

[mkess101]

Elias outstruck Trevor 77 to 41, two judges scored it 30-27. My point was that I saw him as a guaranteed win. I had no worries putting him on multiple parlays.

He looked like a -200 favorite to me. He won, deservedly so, but the fight was competitive. If I lay -400 I want it to look very easy for that guy. Elias looked just as tired in rd 3 at Hot Sauce and while you won your bets (which is great, congrats) I don't think his line had any value at all.

 

[LEMONZEST]

and you would think that wonderboy wouldve learned from that fight not even taking into consideration that this fight was in the UK

I know that was another reason I bet him. I assume he would have learned and never repeat that mistake...

 

[LEMONZEST]

I had it 3-2 Till.

It was no robbery, close decision that could have gone either way.

Almost like Woodley fight but Woodley was closer to the finish than Till. At the same time Woodley had his back to the cage a lot in that fight whereas Till was the aggressor, cutting off the cage and had Wonderboy's back against the cage a fair part of the fight and landed a lot of small kicks to WB's front leg.

Give Till credit for the fight and gameplan.

Till was very close to getting a finish after that KD....

 

[LEMONZEST]

Please let me know when Wonderboy/Till fight starts...

 

[burge13]

No idea why Wonderboy is popular. Boring as F to watch and Welterweight is quickly becoming the most boring division in the UFC. Covington, Usman, Woodley & WB are all top 5 and boring. RDA better win the interim title to add some spice

 

[susanto]

But I didn’t have money on the fight. I arbed out and took an insignificant profit after Till missed weight and I was holding a Till +140 ticket with WB sitting at -125

I don’t think i said anything that’s worthy of being deemed trolling. WB didn’t outland Till by a decent margin, Till actually outlanded him according to FM. In order for WB to have value at -150, he’d need to win >60% of the time. With the way the fight played out today, I can’t see how you feel like WB -150 was the right side. Both WB and Till landed between 5-10 strikes per round with Till probably getting the better of “octagon control”. If you wanna argue the FM stats aren’t accurate, I can’t confirm them obv but that’s what I’m going off

Did U regret closing your Till bet?

 

[Oblivian]

I was on Wonderboy small and didn't have a problem with the decision. Horrible fight to be honest.

 

[mkess101]

I was on Wonderboy small and didn't have a problem with the decision. Horrible fight to be honest.

I think there are more complaints from bettors that lose really close, boring fights than from those that lose really close but super exciting fights.

Like, if I have to sit through a snoozer I at least want to be paid dammit! Whereas let's say you were on Shogun in his first fight with Hendo. Yeah you lost $, but at least you got to see an all time epic fight.

I have nothing to back up this viewpoint other than it at least seems that way here after the fights.