UFC FN 142 PBP/Discussion

Kyle Stephens said:
If anyone is still watching that thread, I want to point you out guys something about JDS.

He is not opportunist and I don't think he really researches fighters because he fights EVERYBODY the same exact way. I mentioned somewhere in these betting threads that Tai have no ground game and JDS will be well served to wrestle him. Once he got the mount (effortlessly) the fight was fucking over!!! What you think, that you are god standing up and you'll win every fight like that? Maybe, maybe not. And even if you do, you took tons of unnecessary damage. Silly.

Did you, brasilian Borat (Mike Bisping said it, not me) actually watched even one of his fights? He even fell on the ground from one of his dumb kicks and you didn't use it to your advantage? Was that close to being stopped by Tai, man, use your brain for a change. You are even worse than the typical low IQ HW, they at least try to find the path of least resistance.
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I mean for us spectators, it is easy to play armchair general. For every takedown attempt, there is a considerable amount of risk involved. Guys like Khabib give us a false illusion of how easy ground and pound is. If you get caught going for the takedown, you are screwed. If your submission fails, you are screwed since you are outta gas (ex. Souza). I think JDS was smart.

1) JDS knew that his ground is not all that
2) JDS knew that his submissions will not work until Tai is worn out
3) JDS knew that Tai had openings after every rushes

He knew Taivasa was far too aggressive and he had openings. SO HE CHOSE to wait. If things did not go well, I am sure JDS would have took it to the ground. Look bro, for HW its almost like samurai duel. One wrong punch and game over. Tuivasa prolly learned his lesson today. You cannot rush in every single time. He had some success initially but in the long run, it WILL bite you in the ass.

This is similar to gambling. Inexperienced gamblers go in big and win big. Heck, they even get lucky on a long winning streak. Eventually, the odds will catch up. Tai's luck has run out. With that aggressive rushing in, he will get knocked the fuck out in the top 10.
 
Im done with betting, 3 events fucked me up. Something is wrong, after 2 years of betting I coudlnt figure out how to make money on betting this parlays. Was a good time with you guys. I wish here everyone good results in the near future.

Goodbye and ,,powodzenia"

<RomeroSalute>
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Im done with betting, 3 events fucked me up. Something is wrong, after 2 years of betting I coudlnt figure out how to make money on betting this parlays. Was a good time with you guys. I wish here everyone good results in the near future.

Goodbye and ,,powodzenia"

<RomeroSalute>
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zero shame in leaving bro. in fact, hats off to you. Had I lost today's event, I woulda called it quits too. (I lost both bets yesterday, and I managed to make a strong comeback today by being a little reckless. I made bets without seeing any tape and just relied on numbers)
 
MMAOracle said:
I mean for us spectators, it is easy to play armchair general
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I agree with you on that. It's too easy sitting back in my comfortable chair at home.
But in this particular case I'm confident that I am right. It's not so easy to make someone pay for ill-advised TD attempt in the light divisions, which are full of crazy athletic fighters, what you're gonna do here? You'll just get taken down, even if you hit them, they are going to be fine most likely and you will be down with your back on the ground.

JDS was risking next to nothing to at least try TD v Tuivasa. He is more athletic and have better scrambling ability, even if he missed and somehow was еnded up on the ground he'll be able to stand up so fast Tai would not have the time to do anything to him.

Tai is white belt on the ground. He does not have even the fundamentals of grappling there. It was going to be so so much painless and easy for JDS to just take him down. At the least Tai would give him more space to work because of the danger of the takedown.

MMAOracle said:
Look bro, for HW its almost like samurai duel. One wrong punch and game over.
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I've saw enough HW fights to know they are not that dynamic. Ok, they hit hard, but one punch KO's are reserved for Ngannou and Stipe when backing up and clocking rushing Werdum on the chin. You have to have insane power to fuck someone up with just a punch (even @ HW), or opponent to do something so stupid and crazy to nail himself on your fist with all his momentum and practically knock himself out.
If this was the case as you said it that it is "one wrong punch and game over", Tai should be a winner. He was the one that hit JDS with good hard punches way before JDS began to make his game going. If it was one punch KO, JDS would have lost this.

Wiktoruspro said:
Goodbye and ,,powodzenia"
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Salute to you, sir!
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Like the last weekend?
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Was that the China card? Couldn't watch most of it live, but I definitely made profit on that. Had the Leech in a two part parlay with Lamas (the week before that) and Leech ITD prop and a parlay with Alistair ITD that paid off big, just made some additional dumb bets that cut into that money, so I only ended up $278 on 5dimes and I think around $200 on sbg off the top of my head. Really have to constantly remind myself I don't have to bet everything. I only had a few bets for the china event and in some way that makes you feel a bit exposed, so there's a tendency to force additional bets.
 
Another solid betting night. I'm on a hell of a streak here. I don't feel confident in the next event though.
 
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10 dollar free play from Bet365....lets go!!!
 
Dianabol said:
Surprising but not surprising, Australian judging can be biased af

I had it 1-1 going into the 3rd, Jake didn't do enough to win the 2nd
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I was leaning Martin R2, but it wasn't dominant enough that it was certainly in his favor IMO. Especially considering it was in Australia and Jake seemed busier with the huge haymakers.
 
Thought I had about cards as a post-event gambling skills thing.

Re-cap the cards based on where you think lines would stand in an immediate rematch or what you think the actual win-percentages would have been. I feel like it helps bring clarity to how you perform as a bettor.

JDS/Tuivasa should have been a Pick 'Em. I was on JDS, but he was having more difficulty than I expected.

Willis -300 or so. Hunt looked shit, but took a round.

Rua +200. He won, but R1 was bad enough that I still feel like Pedro gets him out of there more often than not.

Martin -200. Good win, but I feel like Matthews did well enough that it wasn't a 'lock' between the shoddy scorecards, the knockdown and Matthews taking a round.

Crute -200. Craig took a round and was pretty live as a dog.

Yusuff -1000.

Kunchenko -1000. Both complete shut-outs.

Reis -150. Good win, but dropped a round and Nguyen had enough bright spots.

Nakamura -200. Close, grindy fight.

Kai Kara France... -300? Obviously domination, but Garcia hurt/almost subbed him multiple times so it's hard to be confident in him as a lock.

Giagos -200. Jesus his cardio.

Ismagulov -1000.

Curious if anybody else'd have other opinions on the above?
 
Gugabe said:
I was leaning Martin R2, but it wasn't dominant enough that it was certainly in his favor IMO. Especially considering it was in Australia and Jake seemed busier with the huge haymakers.
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Yeah I looked at the fightmetric stats, Martin nearly outlanded him 2-1 in the 2nd round. Martin was the one pressuring and being aggressive too. All Jake Matthews likes to do with his striking is move backwards and then try and counter with an overhand or hook, not much depth to his game.
 
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