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You talking about me ? We will see how elite Makdesi keep up against Abel. This card overall sucks betting wise. Nearly every fight has a good chance to ruin your night.
UFC FOX 26 - RDA vs Lawler - Winnipeg
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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You cant trust abel as a fav he sucks post usada
Not a good first impression on the UFC. At least it saved my boy @Revolver some money
Was ready to cash in big and put #elite hashtags in my signature
Oh well. I don't know how his weight cutting is, but I read he was considering going all the way up to featherweight to compete on TUF.
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Here is my breakdown for Bofando/Laprise:
35 year old Bofando was pretty much retired from fighting before being called up for a European card to face off against Charlie Ward. There isn't a record of Bofando making it out of the first round in any of his MMA fights. He's been able to put everyone out in the 1st round. Bofando hasn't faced anyone reasonably skilled in his MMA career, however, so it's difficult to judge what his skill level is. To be fighting for 7 years and not being able to find a reasonably skilled opponent is a bit fishy, however. Agreeing to a modified rules "MMA" fight with no grappling or clinching might be an indication as to why Bofando's record looks so protected.
Though Chad Laprise isn't the strong wrestler that will take Bofando down and dominate on the mat, he still looks like a bad matchup for Bofando. Laprise has fought quality opponents at LW in Barbarena and Trinaldo. With only one fight at 170, he still had a dominant performance against Brian Camozzi earning fight of the night. Though looking small for the weight class, his cardio looked improved at his WW debut.
Laprise has solid defensive footwork and cuts angles nicely during striking exchanges. Whatever strikes that do land usually land on Laprise's solid guard or are glancing. With the bladed stance, Bofando will have to avoid jumping in and overcommitting as Laprise's counters are generally sharp. Bofando also is prone to having his kicks caught by opponents, something which against Laprise will end up with him eating a flurry or getting put on his back.
Bofando will need to rely on his athleticism and flashes of explosiveness in order to have any success here. These traits may be diminished now out of his fighting prime, and there is a big question mark as to how long his weapons will stay sharp throughout 3 rounds. As long as Laprise can avoid some highlight reel headkick or a big left hand, the more likely his experience and more well-rounded game should win him the fight.
For this fight I bet on Laprise ML with a small hedge on Bofando Rd1. Live betting after Rd1 might be a good idea, but I can't get enough down on LB unfortunately.
35 year old Bofando was pretty much retired from fighting before being called up for a European card to face off against Charlie Ward. There isn't a record of Bofando making it out of the first round in any of his MMA fights. He's been able to put everyone out in the 1st round. Bofando hasn't faced anyone reasonably skilled in his MMA career, however, so it's difficult to judge what his skill level is. To be fighting for 7 years and not being able to find a reasonably skilled opponent is a bit fishy, however. Agreeing to a modified rules "MMA" fight with no grappling or clinching might be an indication as to why Bofando's record looks so protected.
Though Chad Laprise isn't the strong wrestler that will take Bofando down and dominate on the mat, he still looks like a bad matchup for Bofando. Laprise has fought quality opponents at LW in Barbarena and Trinaldo. With only one fight at 170, he still had a dominant performance against Brian Camozzi earning fight of the night. Though looking small for the weight class, his cardio looked improved at his WW debut.
Laprise has solid defensive footwork and cuts angles nicely during striking exchanges. Whatever strikes that do land usually land on Laprise's solid guard or are glancing. With the bladed stance, Bofando will have to avoid jumping in and overcommitting as Laprise's counters are generally sharp. Bofando also is prone to having his kicks caught by opponents, something which against Laprise will end up with him eating a flurry or getting put on his back.
Bofando will need to rely on his athleticism and flashes of explosiveness in order to have any success here. These traits may be diminished now out of his fighting prime, and there is a big question mark as to how long his weapons will stay sharp throughout 3 rounds. As long as Laprise can avoid some highlight reel headkick or a big left hand, the more likely his experience and more well-rounded game should win him the fight.
For this fight I bet on Laprise ML with a small hedge on Bofando Rd1. Live betting after Rd1 might be a good idea, but I can't get enough down on LB unfortunately.
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Here is my breakdown for Silva/Mein:
Both Erick Silva and Jordan Mein have had long UFC careers. Silva since 2011 and Mein since 2013. During this time both guys have been solid and exciting fighters but neither have been able to string together more than a couple of wins and break into top 10 territory. Now with both guys on the downslope of their careers, a run for either doesn't seem likely.
Mein has dropped his last three fights. Despite looking competitive in the first round of each fight (and very good in the first of the Alves fight), Mein's volume and intensity significantly drops off afterwards. Against Alves, this meant being a bit too defensive and relying on a high guard that Alves exploited with a nice liver kick. Against Meek Mill and Belal Muhammad, Mein was unable to prevent being outgrappled and controlled for the final two rounds. This is particularly troubling in the Muhammad fight since Mein looked especially conservative with his energy usage in the first round and still was at a significant fatigue disadvantage in the later rounds.
Despite being only 28 years old Mein's slowdown doesn't seem too surprising. The man has been fighting professionally since 2006 and his first fight listed is in 2002. That's about 11 years of professional service and 42 fights. One would imagine his body might be slowing down now. More proof of that is Mein retirement after the KO loss to Alves and near 2 year absence.
Erick Silva has had a rough going in the past couple of years. Dropping 3 out of the last 4 fights, and not looking like the aggressive and frenetic fighter that he used to (and a noticeable loss of leanness) has got people wondering whether the USADA era has led to a significant decline for Silva.
Whether or not USADA is a factor, one would expect at this point for Silva to slow down regardless. Now 33 years old and in fighting service for 12 years, Silva has had to alter his fighting style recently to stay competitive. After getting faceplant KO'd spectacularly by Nordine Taleb, Silva has tightened up his striking considerably. Against Chagas, Silva was able to control the range and throw shorter and more balanced strikes than his former self. Against Medeiros, he added a bit more defensive movement and feints.
With the longer reach and more impressive striking performances in his resume, it would seem like Mein has an advantage on the feet here. A few years ago, Mein's varied offense and aggression would seem to be a very tough matchup for Silva's lack of defense. Now, with both guys lowering their volume and aggression, the striking is a bit more even.
After the first round, this fight will be Silva's fight to lose though. Silva doesn't slow down quite as much as Mein does come round 2, and was even to get a finish against Chagas in Rd3. Mein is just too content in his past 3 losses to defend and react to what his opponent is doing in the later part of the fight to be reliable at round winning. The fact that he's been outgrappled in the last 2 is also a problem as Silva is a submission threat for all three rounds.
Silva at underdog odds looks enticing in this spot. If Mein's decline and lowered volume is a trend, the O1.5 rounds looks pretty nice too at -130. Both guys aren't the wild go-forward strikers they once were, and despite Silva's suspect chin and propensity get sent to the mat often (whether he gets his clean or not), his recovery isn't too bad. A bad early stoppage against Medeiros was a lucky hit for bettors fading Silva's chin in his last fight and Yancy was throwing full force in that 2nd round.
Both Erick Silva and Jordan Mein have had long UFC careers. Silva since 2011 and Mein since 2013. During this time both guys have been solid and exciting fighters but neither have been able to string together more than a couple of wins and break into top 10 territory. Now with both guys on the downslope of their careers, a run for either doesn't seem likely.
Mein has dropped his last three fights. Despite looking competitive in the first round of each fight (and very good in the first of the Alves fight), Mein's volume and intensity significantly drops off afterwards. Against Alves, this meant being a bit too defensive and relying on a high guard that Alves exploited with a nice liver kick. Against Meek Mill and Belal Muhammad, Mein was unable to prevent being outgrappled and controlled for the final two rounds. This is particularly troubling in the Muhammad fight since Mein looked especially conservative with his energy usage in the first round and still was at a significant fatigue disadvantage in the later rounds.
Despite being only 28 years old Mein's slowdown doesn't seem too surprising. The man has been fighting professionally since 2006 and his first fight listed is in 2002. That's about 11 years of professional service and 42 fights. One would imagine his body might be slowing down now. More proof of that is Mein retirement after the KO loss to Alves and near 2 year absence.
Erick Silva has had a rough going in the past couple of years. Dropping 3 out of the last 4 fights, and not looking like the aggressive and frenetic fighter that he used to (and a noticeable loss of leanness) has got people wondering whether the USADA era has led to a significant decline for Silva.
Whether or not USADA is a factor, one would expect at this point for Silva to slow down regardless. Now 33 years old and in fighting service for 12 years, Silva has had to alter his fighting style recently to stay competitive. After getting faceplant KO'd spectacularly by Nordine Taleb, Silva has tightened up his striking considerably. Against Chagas, Silva was able to control the range and throw shorter and more balanced strikes than his former self. Against Medeiros, he added a bit more defensive movement and feints.
With the longer reach and more impressive striking performances in his resume, it would seem like Mein has an advantage on the feet here. A few years ago, Mein's varied offense and aggression would seem to be a very tough matchup for Silva's lack of defense. Now, with both guys lowering their volume and aggression, the striking is a bit more even.
After the first round, this fight will be Silva's fight to lose though. Silva doesn't slow down quite as much as Mein does come round 2, and was even to get a finish against Chagas in Rd3. Mein is just too content in his past 3 losses to defend and react to what his opponent is doing in the later part of the fight to be reliable at round winning. The fact that he's been outgrappled in the last 2 is also a problem as Silva is a submission threat for all three rounds.
Silva at underdog odds looks enticing in this spot. If Mein's decline and lowered volume is a trend, the O1.5 rounds looks pretty nice too at -130. Both guys aren't the wild go-forward strikers they once were, and despite Silva's suspect chin and propensity get sent to the mat often (whether he gets his clean or not), his recovery isn't too bad. A bad early stoppage against Medeiros was a lucky hit for bettors fading Silva's chin in his last fight and Yancy was throwing full force in that 2nd round.
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I am one of the few on Abel. No other reason than fading makdessi. I have zero faith in maks chin or that he will be able to get up when taken down. I do agree with everything that has been said about Abel’s faults. And realize that the best bet is a pass and second best would be the underdog at these odds.
Even if Abel does exactly what I think he will do I know this was a bad bet, and it’s something I am trying to get myself out of doing. But I think Abel murks him in the first or gets enough takedowns to win a dec.
Even if Abel does exactly what I think he will do I know this was a bad bet, and it’s something I am trying to get myself out of doing. But I think Abel murks him in the first or gets enough takedowns to win a dec.
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Jan looked really good. Best I've seen him I think. While Cannon didn't look that great to me
Josh looked confused and pretty sad he missed. Didn't look good to me
Abel needed towel and didn't seem happy
Silva looks so different than his horse meat days. God damn
Mak at 153. Looked ok though
BangBros seems like a cool guy
Josh looked confused and pretty sad he missed. Didn't look good to me
Abel needed towel and didn't seem happy
Silva looks so different than his horse meat days. God damn
Mak at 153. Looked ok though
BangBros seems like a cool guy
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Why make the bet then? Also I'd suggest watching Makdessi/Patrick if you're banking on Abel wrestlefucking.
Abel's TDs come from charging forward with a big strike that he converts to a TD, it works on guys that have tried to block or stood their ground to try and counter, but Makdessi has great footwork/range management and will step out of the way.
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Jan was shakin while flexing and cannon looked fine.
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While I don’t think it sucks it’s not like the halloway vs aldo card.
Lines have moved to create some potential
Mack daddy makdessi +3.5 -135
Oh yea I’ll have some of that.
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Welp Luca fury finally blocked me Bros. I responded to him touting about his 4 straight “sweeps”.
Winning one favorite bet per card is not a sweep. Dude is a salesman always manipulating his stats.
Anyhow watching tape on Stewart and Marquez. From what I remember from the contender series is that Marquez is a tank. Don’t know if I can play Stewart even at +300
Winning one favorite bet per card is not a sweep. Dude is a salesman always manipulating his stats.
Anyhow watching tape on Stewart and Marquez. From what I remember from the contender series is that Marquez is a tank. Don’t know if I can play Stewart even at +300
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I made the bet a few days ago when odds first dropped. I do not like makdessi and had in my mind to fade him. I know Abel will gas if the fight goes into the 3rd, I just don’t have any faith In makdessi at all. It was a split second reaction to my gut feeling at the time.
After time to digest it I know it was a bad bet, even if it wins. The only reason I brought it up was to reinforce to myself that not all winning bets are good bets and not all losing bets are bad. I am still learning hard lessons and win or lose this is another one. I didn’t go big and still think Abel murks him but in all honesty I should of gone small on makdessi or passed.
I may just buy out of some of it.
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Thats now my bet for that fight too. Love it
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Dude. I bet Canon. Jan looked really good.
Canon looked ok. Not as good as last fight IMO. Jan definitely looked more defined
I my arm shakes when I flex my biceps also
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I see you bumped the line up to -150
Think this is the best play on the card imo
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