Just finished watching tape for Chookagian/Borella and here are my thoughts:
Pretty easy fight to understand here. Borella will look to take Chookagian down with a bodylock trip and then establish top control. Chookagian will try to work her outfighting game, score points, and manage the distance well enough to keep Borella off of her.
At -150, we are betting that Chookagian is able to avoid the takedowns and outland Borella to win the fight over 60% of the time. Chookagian seems like she should be able to do this.
Borella looked great in her debut, plowing straight through Kalindra Faria for a perfect first round submission win. In her Invicta fight against Milana Dudieva, Borella won a comfortable decision with her trip takedowns and top control as well.
Chookagian should be to stifle Borella's game through her competent management of distance. That was the theme for all three of her UFC fights. Against Murphy, Chookagian was able to potshot Murphy at range for all three rounds and win a comfortable decision despite Murphy's constant forward pressure.
Chookagian fell a bit short against Liz Carmouche's more balance offense which was a mix of forward pressure, varied striking, and quick level change takedowns. Carmouche was able to put Chookagian on her back multiple times in the first two rounds of that fight, and the sight of Chookagian on the ground throwing up a full guard and working for submissions of her back will have some doubting her chances against Borella here. However, the scenario is a bit different with Borella.
At 125 lbs, Chookagian will be fighting at a weight class more suited for her, and she won't be overpowered quite as easily. Though vulnerable to deep double leg takedowns by Carmouche, Chookagian was strong in the clinch against bigger girls than Borella. Borella's game is also going to be more limited than Carmouche. Her striking output is very low, and Borella will be outpointed by the faster paced and higher volume Chookagian for every second the fight stays standing.
Borella is not a pressure fighter, and will give Chookagian much more room to work than either Carmouche or Murphy. Chookagian is adept at maintaining range to pot-shot, and getting out of the way of return fire or takedown attempts. Borella may have to rely on crashing forward to close the distance and to clinch up. There's a chance this still might work against Chookagian, but it's unlikely that it will. Chookagian will be a bit too mobile, athletic, and will have certainly gameplanned to avoid Borella's strengths.