UFC Fox 27 - Jacare vs Brunson II - Charlotte

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I don't like this card for betting at all, and I've never said something like that before
 
Took Brunson +150, no value at the current line. Thinking about arbing out actually, I think Souza's decline is not nearly as bad as some think.

Was going to bet Neto BJJ, but after watching tape not that impressed. I think the odds are spot on, not seeing much value on either side.
 
Jacare was on the Juice IMO. I know the way my body looks on and off the stuff. There's very little doubt he's now off

What that has to do with the actual fight is up in the air. But he's not physically the same as he was a few years ago
 
Yes, just like how Rampage looked good last weekend on the scales. How in the world would you argue that someone would "look even better" in regards to being ripped when hydrated? I honestly think the body composition analyzing on this forum is as bad as the #elite #lock talk.
 
Oblivian said:
Yes, just like how Rampage looked good last weekend on the scales. How in the world would you argue that someone would "look even better" in regards to being ripped when hydrated? I honestly think the body composition analyzing on this forum is as bad as the #elite #lock talk.
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Rampage did look good on the scale. What's your point?

It's not about being ripped. It's about the mass of ones chest, shoulders/traps. The looseness of the midsection. He's obviously off the juice, if you want to ignore it that's cool

You are taking Monday morning to new levels in here. You are wrong as much if not more than anyone in here. But you have a nasty habit of bringing up others losses while completely ignoring your own

There is absolutely nothing wrong with analyzing a way a fighter looks or that his physique may be changing.

It's amazing that you'd get up in arms over it
 
turbozed said:
Just finished watching tape for Chookagian/Borella and here are my thoughts:

Pretty easy fight to understand here. Borella will look to take Chookagian down with a bodylock trip and then establish top control. Chookagian will try to work her outfighting game, score points, and manage the distance well enough to keep Borella off of her.

At -150, we are betting that Chookagian is able to avoid the takedowns and outland Borella to win the fight over 60% of the time. Chookagian seems like she should be able to do this.
Borella looked great in her debut, plowing straight through Kalindra Faria for a perfect first round submission win. In her Invicta fight against Milana Dudieva, Borella won a comfortable decision with her trip takedowns and top control as well.

Chookagian should be to stifle Borella's game through her competent management of distance. That was the theme for all three of her UFC fights. Against Murphy, Chookagian was able to potshot Murphy at range for all three rounds and win a comfortable decision despite Murphy's constant forward pressure.

Chookagian fell a bit short against Liz Carmouche's more balance offense which was a mix of forward pressure, varied striking, and quick level change takedowns. Carmouche was able to put Chookagian on her back multiple times in the first two rounds of that fight, and the sight of Chookagian on the ground throwing up a full guard and working for submissions of her back will have some doubting her chances against Borella here. However, the scenario is a bit different with Borella.

At 125 lbs, Chookagian will be fighting at a weight class more suited for her, and she won't be overpowered quite as easily. Though vulnerable to deep double leg takedowns by Carmouche, Chookagian was strong in the clinch against bigger girls than Borella. Borella's game is also going to be more limited than Carmouche. Her striking output is very low, and Borella will be outpointed by the faster paced and higher volume Chookagian for every second the fight stays standing.
Borella is not a pressure fighter, and will give Chookagian much more room to work than either Carmouche or Murphy. Chookagian is adept at maintaining range to pot-shot, and getting out of the way of return fire or takedown attempts. Borella may have to rely on crashing forward to close the distance and to clinch up. There's a chance this still might work against Chookagian, but it's unlikely that it will. Chookagian will be a bit too mobile, athletic, and will have certainly gameplanned to avoid Borella's strengths.
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Nail. Head.
 
Yea. Just like how Rampage...

LOFL

This 6th grade?
 
forum dog play looking good. sharp action coming in consistently all week shortening the price to 2.86
 
quincy k said:
jacare himself has admitted that hes lost strength because of the pec.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/6/...loss-robert-whittaker-future-ufc-uke-rockhold

at 38, post usada, post surgery, not out of the question that hes going to have problems grappling and taking down brunson

not out of the question to think that he might be coming into this fight with a pre-existing injury as well.
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It's not like anyone is saying he can't or won't win. Or that he looks like utter shit

It's like you can't even point out obvious shit in here because 1 guy will say.....but remember that other time

A fighter can still win looking bad on the scales. A fighter can lose looking good
 
michi972 said:
@EzFlyer thoughts on Koch?
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think he's maybe the more likely finisher of the two but think the fight goes 3 and think green gets a close decision.

that about sums it up. bets in line w/this. very small on koch nsc, even smaller on green dec (by virtue of some rr action), and a sub-1u play on O2.5.

not a fight i'm targeting. i would say "lookin to live bet it" (and i am), but it's hard to get much down live for me right now.
 
as much as i want to stay from other forum member's argu... i mean, discussions. I think both @Oblivian and @SBJJ have valid points. this thread does get a major hard on based on physiques and it usually plays into whatever narrative they have already created in their minds (rampage from last week). but w that being said, i dont think its wrong to assume Jacare, at the tail end of his career, post USADA, may have a decline that coincides with the way he looks during the weigh ins, whether its rehydrated or what. fighters get older, their athletic ability declines, and they potentially cant train as hard due to nagging injuries or loss of passion.
 
iGnP said:
as much as i want to stay from other forum member's argu... i mean, discussions. I think both @Oblivian and @SBJJ have valid points. this thread does get a major hard on based on physiques and it usually plays into whatever narrative they have already created in their minds (rampage from last week). but w that being said, i dont think its wrong to assume Jacare, at the tail end of his career, post USADA, may have a decline that coincides with the way he looks during the weigh ins, whether its rehydrated or what. fighters get older, their athletic ability declines, and they potentially cant train as hard due to nagging injuries or loss of passion.
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With Ya 100%. And that is a good way to discuss it

I don't think anyone has said he looks horrible. Just different than a few years back.
 
SBJJ said:
With Ya 100%. And that is a good way to discuss it

I don't think anyone has said he looks horrible. Just different than a few years back.
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Yes, and that his obvious physical decline (because it is indeed obvious) is coinciding with losses as well. Does that mean he loses tonight? No. But it makes a bet on a +150-or-whatever opponent, a capable opponent at that, a no-brainer. We shouldn't take flack for dissecting what a fighter looks like.

The 'good old days' of this forum are a nostalgic block for some guys here sometimes.
 
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