UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

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iGnP said:
hmm can you elaborate a bit? I think the odds are pretty accurate. if you think this fight is a 55/45 deal like odds imply, id agree that its more likely that OSP finishes Latifi than OSP winning a decision (38% and 22%, respectively). Latifi has been finished in 3 of his 5 losses and OSP seemingly only wins by stoppage. What do you cap each outcome (and what do you cap the fight straight up, if you dont mind asking)
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I think the fight is 50/50 honestly as far as the ML goes. So small value in Latifi ML at + odds.

So breaking down how I see the percentages I put it about 25% for each scenario (either guy itd or by dec). That's a rough % obviously, so really it's more a range between 20-30% for each I guess. And I probably even think OSP dec is closer to 30% and itd is closer to 20%. If forced to actually assign a % (kinda silly, but whatever LOL) I'll go dec 27% and itd 23%.

OSP has finished fights yes, but in a lot of those he was the bigger guy and better grappler so he gained top position and won by sub. I don't see him getting Ilir on his back and finishing that way at all. The sweet head kick KO of Anderson in his last fight was his first KO win in his last 8 fights, and prior to those it was a KO over Cummins. Both Anderson and Cummins have awful chins imo and have been KO'd in a ton of their losses, so knocking them out isn't a big surprise. In addition, OSP lost a close decision to Oezdemir fairly recently (split) and won a decision over Cavalcante (another low volume guy who just looks to load up and land a bomb with his striking--similar to Latifi).

In the last 5 years, Ilir has 3 losses. 2 by stoppage, 1 by dec. The knee by Bader was beautiful and probably would have KO'd an elephant. To me, that's just "one of those things that happens". That loss is also sandwiched between two decision wins for him. So obviously it's not like he isn't in fights that go 3 full rounds.

If you think OSP sub is in play (I really don't) then that changes things of course. I'm working under the assumption that's very unlikely here, and that if OSP wins itd it's by KO. Stylistically, this just seems like the type of fight to me that goes the distance and is pretty close. So if I cap OSP dec hitting 27% of the time, +347 is solid value.
 
mkess101 said:
I think the fight is 50/50 honestly as far as the ML goes. So small value in Latifi ML at + odds.

So breaking down how I see the percentages I put it about 25% for each scenario (either guy itd or by dec). That's a rough % obviously, so really it's more a range between 20-30% for each I guess. And I probably even think OSP dec is closer to 30% and itd is closer to 20%. If forced to actually assign a % (kinda silly, but whatever LOL) I'll go dec 27% and itd 23%.

OSP has finished fights yes, but in a lot of those he was the bigger guy and better grappler so he gained top position and won by sub. I don't see him getting Ilir on his back and finishing that way at all. The sweet head kick KO of Anderson in his last fight was his first KO win in his last 8 fights, and prior to those it was a KO over Cummins. Both Anderson and Cummins have awful chins imo and have been KO'd in a ton of their losses, so knocking them out isn't a big surprise. In addition, OSP lost a close decision to Oezdemir fairly recently (split) and won a decision over Cavalcante (another low volume guy who just looks to load up and land a bomb with his striking--similar to Latifi).

In the last 5 years, Ilir has 3 losses. 2 by stoppage, 1 by dec. The knee by Bader was beautiful and probably would have KO'd an elephant. To me, that's just "one of those things that happens". That loss is also sandwiched between two decision wins for him. So obviously it's not like he isn't in fights that go 3 full rounds.

If you think OSP sub is in play (I really don't) then that changes things of course. I'm working under the assumption that's very unlikely here, and that if OSP wins itd it's by KO. Stylistically, this just seems like the type of fight to me that goes the distance and is pretty close. So if I cap OSP dec hitting 27% of the time, +347 is solid value.
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when you said you were surprised at how good the odds were, i thought you were implying OSP decision should be like +150 or something. that's why i was confused. I still think its more likely OSP wins by stoppage but yeah
 
iGnP said:
when you said you were surprised at how good the odds were, i thought you were implying OSP decision should be like +150 or something. that's why i was confused. I still think its more likely OSP wins by stoppage but yeah
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Do you think OSP sub is in play at all? He has 10 KO's and 7 subs, but I think that's misleading for reasons I stated. His subs are basically all top position subs where he's overpowering weaker guys. I can't see him getting Latifi on his back. It will be interesting to see OSP sub vs OSP KO when they release them. I think OSP KO is very possible, but sub is really unlikely. Not sure if odds will reflect that or not given the # of guys OSP has subbed lately.
 
Card said:
Paging subli and ivanilich





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Jessica Andrade: The preparation for this fight was very good. I know that Tecia always walks forward and knows how to control the octagon well. The idea is to corner her on the grid and hit. I brought Jessica Delboni (6-0) to play the role of Tecia in training, because they have the same height. I do not believe I'm better than her in all areas, but I'm stronger, more aggressive, and I'm better on the floor. I hope I can play the belt if I win on Saturday. I trained more for this fight, than for fighting Joanna. They questioned my academy, because of the defeat for Pedrita against Valentina, and I intend to win this fight for them.

Barão: This is going to be the first fight since I started training at ATT in Florida. Training in the USA is very easy than in Brazil. I've been training a lot of boxing. I'm trying to keep myself at a lighter weight during training so I do not have to cut as much weight as I can to fight.

Yahya: My opponent has 4 losses for submission and I have 18 wins that way. He leaves his neck very exposed, so I think I'll get a win that way. I hope I can win the bonus, but the most important thing is the win. I am very confident even though he has a knockout power.
 
mkess101 said:
Even though I like Latifi ML at + odds, I'm surprised at how good odds are on OSP dec at +347. Given that Latifi has stretches where he just does nothing at all, I think OSP can absolutely win a decision here. Some of it depends on Latifi's mindset, because if he wants to wrestle this most likely won't hit. But Latifi has shown me enough times that he's willing to stay standing and hope to land a bomb only to watch minutes tick off the clock with him showing very limited activity.

Worth a stab imo.
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You're saying Latifi has periods of no activity. Have you seen OSP fight? He frequently does nothing productive until he gets a finish.
 
Gugabe said:
You're saying Latifi has periods of no activity. Have you seen OSP fight? He frequently does nothing productive until he gets a finish.
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For sure that's true 100%. When you think about it, that strengthens my point. Let's say it ends up as a 15 minute sparring session with neither guy committing a lot. OSP doing little, and Latifi loading up to land a bomb but never getting there. Fans boo, maybe a few flurries but overall a pretty boring fight. Not super hard to imagine it playing out that way right? Bell rings, everyone is pissed that the fight sucked. But as for who won, nobody really knows or cares a whole lot.

In that scenario would you rather have Latifi dec +215 or OSP dec +347?
 
Anyone have the link for the early weigh-in? The one one MMAjunkie is unavailable
 
I have Emmett here, I appear to be in the minority.
 
Probably a bad sign when you can't even cut half a pound to prevent 20% of your purse from being taken away.
 
So my brother is in Vegas and asked me to help him come up with some good bets for the fights this weekend. I only picked underdogs I thought had a good chance, except in a parlay.

Josh Emmett over Jeremy Stephens
Ilir Latifi over Ovince St Preux
Brian Kelleher over Renan Barao
Ben Saunders over Alan Jouban
Eric Shelton over Alex Perez
Parlay: Andrade, Perry, and Kelleher
 
Just put the house on Platinum scoring a first round KO - its obvious.
 
Not sure about Perry honestly. Max Griffin is part of one of my parlays because I think there's value on him. He's like +300 at some bookies.
 
Theres actually a betting section on this site. I use 5dimes, its very easy to use

Latifi sounds good for a dog
 
Hope you did not bet a lot on Latifi

I'll tell ya what bro... Bet or no bet... Those are some good scraps.
 
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