UFC on FOX 29 Poirier vs Gaethje

[Gladiatorz]

i know bro, always 1 fucking prediction fuck up your party

I'm immunized now I'm like this everytime

 

[turbozed]

Jotko, Casey, Stylebender, all with significant pants-height advantages. I was told to look into it.

Thank you for putting in the work and helping track this all-important metric.

One thing though, Tavares appeared to have been sagging his joggers a bit, and was barefoot while Jotko was in shoes. I would say this is an apparent significant pants-height advantage, but only a slight true pants-height advantage.

Agree on Casey and Israel tho!

 

[turbozed]

I wouldn't expect her to have a blue belt at all based on what we've seen from her in the cage because she went to the ground exactly once, got control of the back but forgot to put hooks in. The next time she had a chance to go to the ground she escaped to stand back up.

idk I only tried to research this bitch when I saw that multi-paragraph breakdown a few pages ago; overlooked WMMA fights with clear skill delta usually turn my eyes into dollar signs but this one just looks shitty lol

EDIT: also paging mkess cause he bought her line too. Where did you find tape on her?

In WMMA, with inexperienced fighters like this, you're not going to be able to get a lot of tape to watch. With Mueller, you only got one fight (which at least was a decision) and some training footage. With inexperienced WMMA, it's like the early days of MMA. A significant strength advantage and even a slight grappling advantage I value a lot more than striking. Also, the recency bias and perception angle comes into play a bit. People tend to overvalue impressive KOs at the UFC level, so you get a better price on the opponent. Nobody can be positive of what the line should be here, but the range is weighted in favor of Mueller IMO. Higher risk, higher variance doesn't necessarily mean no value.

Either way, Mueller was -110 so people can always arb out at Dobson +130 now.

 

[Sadistics]

we're operating off of limited info on this, make no mistake. dobson tuf / debut and mueller DWTNF - there's guesswork involved, too, or assumptions. i.e. "Mueller will be better not on short notice" (certainly looks better physically), etc.

but you're right, the info is limited. not my style to go 2u on a girl like this, just going w/my gut.

Dobsons last 2 fights pre tuf are also available, one being against Nicco Montano.

 

[mrbaapt]

glad vettori said he's going to pressure. no one knows how to execute that kind of gameplan like cordeiro.

Sure worked so well for Ellenberger.

 

[vkram]

Sure worked so well for Ellenberger.

Despite his losses, Ellenberger has looked much improved since he went to Cordeiro.

 

[Gugabe]

Rewatching Bhullar-Henrique.

Why the fuck is Wiec an underdog here? It should be dead evens at worse, IMO. I rate beating Hamilton by dec over anything Bhullar did.

 

[Sham5916910]

Rewatching Bhullar-Henrique.

Why the fuck is Wiec an underdog here? It should be dead evens at worse, IMO. I rate beating Hamilton by dec over anything Bhullar did.

Bhuller had a much sterner test for his debut and Adam could have lost that decision. Adam is a weak hw who gets taken down by everyone he only weighed 232 yday. Adam has no power on the feet either not good at hw. Adam also has a horrible habit of backing into the fence. Bhuller will dictate where this fight goes and win on the feet or maintain heavy top position to cruise to a decision. This should not be an even line.

Wow just read you think beating ham is better than a win over henrique. Jeez

 

[lilbloaty]

Rewatching Bhullar-Henrique.

Why the fuck is Wiec an underdog here? It should be dead evens at worse, IMO. I rate beating Hamilton by dec over anything Bhullar did.

 

[Gugabe]

Bhuller had a much sterner test for his debut and Adam could have lost that decision. Adam is a weak hw who gets taken down by everyone he only weighed 232 yday. Adam has no power on the feet either not good at hw. Adam also has a horrible habit of backing into the fence. Bhuller will dictate where this fight goes and win on the feet or maintain heavy top position to cruise to a decision. This should not be an even line.

Wow just read you think beating ham is better than a win over henrique. Jeez

I will still be here when Wiec wins by razor-close, ugly-as-hell split decision that nobody in the whole world enjoys aside from me. Bhullar looked mediocre outwrestling Henrique, who is essentially a LHW, and is a worse fighter from a worse camp than Hamilton. -300 on a fight between 1-0 UFC HWs that are never gonna be ranked is positively absurd.

 

[onC]

I will still be here when Wiec wins by razor-close, ugly-as-hell split decision that nobody in the whole world enjoys aside from me. Bhullar looked mediocre outwrestling Henrique, who is essentially a LHW, and is a worse fighter from a worse camp than Hamilton. -300 on a fight between 1-0 UFC HWs that are never gonna be ranked is positively absurd.

I think everyone agrees that Wieczorek is the obvious right side at +300, but saying that he should be the favourite is a bit too extreme.

 

[Sham5916910]

I will still be here when Wiec wins by razor-close, ugly-as-hell split decision that nobody in the whole world enjoys aside from me. Bhullar looked mediocre outwrestling Henrique, who is essentially a LHW, and is a worse fighter from a worse camp than Hamilton. -300 on a fight between 1-0 UFC HWs that are never gonna be ranked is positively absurd.

Henrique is a big thick dude whos strong he took ngannou down. Yeah ngannou was raw but the same raw ngannou gave blaydes fits with his wrestling. Adam is a physically weak hw who backs into the fence from any offence thats a terrible idea against a wrestler grinder like bhuller. How the fuck is henrique worse than ham? Henrique would wreck him. Ham got kod by a mw and a bum hw with both with one punch the guys fuckin awful. Bhuller is an olympian and commonweath gold medalist with sone decent hands. Horrible stylistic matchup for adam

 

[Oblivian]

Props that are intriguing:
Vettori Sub +710, obviously ground game is Adesanya's weakness, Vettori more likely to get a sub that a GnP tko imo
Oliveira round 1 +525, not confident in Cowboy being disciplined enough to win a decision, but he's going to start strong as usual, Condit will probably start slow.
Sanders by decision +300, Williams gas tank sucks, but Sanders lost two fights in a row that he was winning, he might take less risks this time and coast to a decision.

edit: they're adding more props
Botesch KO +515, Shoeface is gonna try and wrestle but ole reliable Timmy might pull a KO
Moraga KO +550, Reis's stand up is his weakness, I'm on Moraga ML but I think tko is more likely than decision so the KO line has value.

I like Reis/Moraga ITD. I think it's about 50/50 on going the distance. For some reason, I think these two will go for it.

 

[Gugabe]

I think everyone agrees that Wieczorek is the obvious right side at +300, but saying that he should be the favourite is a bit too extreme.

I'd handicap this at about evens. It's a low-level HW fight, and that's what it deserves. I just don't understand why people think that 'Olympic Qualifier = Olympic Standard Wrestling', since there's a big gap there. I train with two dudes that made the last Olympics for Australia, and making it as a fringe country in a marginal weight class doesn't mean much in the global standings.

Henrique is a big thick dude whos strong he took ngannou down. Yeah ngannou was raw but the same raw ngannou gave blaydes fits with his wrestling. Adam is a physically weak hw who backs into the fence from any offence thats a terrible idea against a wrestler grinder like bhuller. How the fuck is henrique worse than ham? Henrique would wreck him. Ham got kod by a mw and a bum hw with both with one punch the guys fuckin awful. Bhuller is an olympian and commonweath gold medalist with sone decent hands. Horrible stylistic matchup for adam

Fringe Olympian and Commonwealth Games Gold means fuck all in wrestling terms, especially when you're talking about the heaviest weight class. Hamilton's shit since his chin's gone, not his skills. It's like how beating Arlovski by decision's way more impressive to me at this point that sparking him out in the first, since the former requires displaying a broader range of skills.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'd handicap this at about evens. It's a low-level HW fight, and that's what it deserves. I just don't understand why people think that 'Olympic Qualifier = Olympic Standard Wrestling', since there's a big gap there. I train with two dudes that made the last Olympics for Australia, and making it as a fringe country in a marginal weight class doesn't mean much in the global standings.


Fringe Olympian and Commonwealth Games Gold means fuck all in wrestling terms, especially when you're talking about the heaviest weight class. Hamilton's shit since his chin's gone, not his skills. It's like how beating Arlovski by decision's way more impressive to me at this point that sparking him out in the first, since the former requires displaying a broader range of skills.

Fringe Olympian / commonwealth games gold is more than enough to take adam no tdd down over and over. And he doesnt even need to do that adam has no standup. Hamilton has always sucked chin or no chin

 

[Yotsuya]

I will still be here when Wiec wins by razor-close, ugly-as-hell split decision that nobody in the whole world enjoys aside from me. Bhullar looked mediocre outwrestling Henrique, who is essentially a LHW, and is a worse fighter from a worse camp than Hamilton. -300 on a fight between 1-0 UFC HWs that are never gonna be ranked is positively absurd.

I have 1 unit on Wiec dec at 10.75. He's durable and has better conditioning, 5" reach advantage and questionable finishing ability.

 

[Sham5916910]

I have 1 unit on Wiec dec at 10.75. He's durable and has better conditioning, 5" reach advantage and questionable finishing ability.

He gassed against hamilton. Bhuller has been five rounds. I dont think you can say he has better conditioning so matter of fact we just dont know. Same with durabity infact hes fought bums we just dont know if hes durable. Reach means fa when you dont know how to use it

 

[Yotsuya]

He gassed against hamilton. Bhuller has been five rounds. I dont think you can say he has better conditioning so matter of fact we just dont know. Same with durabity infact hes fought bums we just dont know if hes durable.

I was trying to to watch tape but Fight Pass kept freezing over and over, so I went with MMA Vivisection. They said, that Wiec got tired but kept his composure regardless where as Bhullar lost the third round after gassing.

 

[Sham5916910]

I was trying to to watch tape but Fight Pass kept freezing over and over, so I went with MMA Vivisection. They said, that Wiec got tired but kept his composure regardless where as Bhullar lost the third round after gassing.

He won r3 (just) as ham was gassed af. Ham was way more gassed than bhuller was in r3.

 

[Yotsuya]

He won r3 (just) as ham was gassed af. Ham was way more gassed than bhuller was in r3.

Could be. Also I don't really have opinion about ml in this fight one way or another, but I do think Wiec dec is good deal at 10.75.