UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II
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Hooker's line is inflated due to his recent finishes and Barboza getting smashed by the two best wrestlers in the division imo. I don't think Hooker brings the type of pressure that has troubled Barboza in the past either. Feels like this will be contested at range where I have to favor Barboza until Hooker proves he's at that level. I guess I jumped a bit early but I put down 2u total on Barboza at +105 and +115. I may add if the line continues to improve. I think he should be a small to moderate fav here.
Also took Font for 1u at +105. I would have liked to add more around evens but no value left now at -195. Font will be significantly bigger/longer and he has the boxing advantage in a fight that should play out the feet. He's also the better grappler imo if it does end up hitting the ground.
I expected KGB Lee to be a bigger favorite as well. I went 2.5u on her opener at -215. I'm not at all impressed with Clark and I feel Lee should win easily on aggression alone. Best case for Clark is a razor close decision and I see it as unlikely.
Also took Font for 1u at +105. I would have liked to add more around evens but no value left now at -195. Font will be significantly bigger/longer and he has the boxing advantage in a fight that should play out the feet. He's also the better grappler imo if it does end up hitting the ground.
I expected KGB Lee to be a bigger favorite as well. I went 2.5u on her opener at -215. I'm not at all impressed with Clark and I feel Lee should win easily on aggression alone. Best case for Clark is a razor close decision and I see it as unlikely.
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With ya on KGB. Thinking she has a huuuuge strength and ground advantage. JRC was competitive on the ground with Rawlings and PVZ of all people. -285 isnt a great price for me though. Will be looking for better value on itd or her point spread.
Hooker/Barboza kinda screams pass to me. Agree with your points about pressure to an extent. Thought he showed a decent pressure game against Yair but got outgrappled lol. Barb coming back from back to back life changing beatings as well plus Hooker still relatively unproven against top tier opponents. Could be his coming out party or taught the vet lesson. Not willing to pay to find out.
Depending how 231 goes for me I'll be against you on Serg +155. Hopefully that line gets better. I'm thinking he'll have a bit of a speed advantage plus the more precision striking. Also, it might be unpopular to say but I think Font is a bit chinny. Even though Serg is the smaller guy, if he lands pretty clean I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop Font a time or two. Although to be fair I've had some square ass opinions in the past. Remember I bet Ben10 against Formiga and thought Brett John's was a good bet against Aljo LOL (To be fair I bought out after coming to my senses).
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Khabib was life-changing in that he knew he was never, never gonna even sniff the belt while that half-russian, half-bear was around. But he certainly didn't get beat up that bad, did he? And the Lee fight...I don't think I actually saw that one, so no comment there.
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30-25 on two cards and 30-24 on the other. 154 strikes to 25. I would say he got beat pretty badly..
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Im already on Iaquinta at +256. Better boxing, chin and cardio. No brainer. 1u
Barboza +120. I will be rooting for Hooker but this is the kind of fights that Edson shines. Not super confident but I like the odds. 1u.
I love to fade Jim Miller but I think it might be value at +217. I also like to fade Oliveira lol.
Will be watching Klose decision props. Kind of concerned Green always make fights close.
Barboza +120. I will be rooting for Hooker but this is the kind of fights that Edson shines. Not super confident but I like the odds. 1u.
I love to fade Jim Miller but I think it might be value at +217. I also like to fade Oliveira lol.
Will be watching Klose decision props. Kind of concerned Green always make fights close.
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Yeah, I dunno, Oliveira strikes me as a pretty good parlay piece. Not my favourite method by any means but Miller is dust at this point.
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Yea, betting -2xx favs isn’t my style either but I don’t see where Clark has an advantage here. I figured Lee would open around -400.
The beatings Barb took are definitely a concern but he still had Lee on wobbly legs in the third after taking all that damage. I don’t think he gets enough credit for his toughness. I think it’s unlikely that Hooker can take him down (if he even tries) and we haven’t seen him display anything resembling the type of pressure that troubled Barb against Ferguson and Dariush. I’m not ultra confident or anything but Hooker hasn’t earned his price. If he wins I won’t regret the play and these types of spots have been good to me in the past.
I wouldn’t touch Font at his current price but I think he’s the right side around evens. I can’t really argue with a small play on Pettis at +155 or better. I will say Pettis winning by anything but close decision would be a little shocking though. Font is going to have a big power advantage.
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I was all for fading Miller but after the way he came out in his last fight I'm not so sure. Oliveira is the kinda guy that crumbles completely vs that kind of adversity way too often.
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Could see it being pretty one-sided if Max is either 100% or impaired badly. I like Santos/Manuwa FOTN @ +500 and Oli/Nelson @ +600
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I'v seen videos of Hooker dominating Israel in sparring. I just leave that here.
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Wow would like to see those. I'm high on hooker atm, the guy has improved a lot and confidence is at an all time high. He's got good instincts too. However, I don't like that he keeps his hands too low and eats strikes too often. He's got a great chin but barboza's kicks are faaast, he could catch him with a quick high kick / spinning kick. No matter how good your chin is, you go to sleep with those. I don't know how kevin lee survived.
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Already got some action on this event. 1.2u on Iaquinta, 1u on Barboza. Got my eye on Green, Silva and Meerschaert as possible dogs I like
Bet 4u on KGB at -250 (2u of it parlayed with Oliveira), think she's better than Jess everywhere, especially the wrestling, and a lot bigger. Jess also left her gym 2-3 weeks ago mid camp, didn't see eye to eye with her headcoach, living alone with 2 dogs which seems to take up a lot of her focus
Bet 4u on KGB at -250 (2u of it parlayed with Oliveira), think she's better than Jess everywhere, especially the wrestling, and a lot bigger. Jess also left her gym 2-3 weeks ago mid camp, didn't see eye to eye with her headcoach, living alone with 2 dogs which seems to take up a lot of her focus
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Agree on that KGB assessment, gone huge on her, as well as Font.
