UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

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BTW: I told myself I wouldn't do this, but I have to put something on Anthony Hamilton. Going back and watching Daniel Spitz fight the mediocre Mark Godbeer forces my hand. Spitz was totally gassed by the second round and was hit with everything but the kitchen sink. He has shitty wrestling, no real power and his defense is absolutely the worst. He is a 6'7" broom stick with arms.

I'm not going to put a lot on him because I don't like betting on low level heavyweights or heavy weights in general, but after re-watching film on Spitz, I cap Hamilton around -350 or so. So at -190 I have to put something small on him and I really recommend others do the same. At least go back and watch Spitz fight Godbeer and then make up your mind.

Iirc he took that fight on 1 week notice, so that probably contributed to it. But there's not that much impressive from his previous fights anyway
 
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Iirc he took that fight on 1 week notice, so that probably contributed to it. But there's not that much impressive from his previous fights anyway

Right, I watched them too. But even in his fight with Godbeer, he had a full training camp. He was in the locker room preparing to fight on a regional event when he got the call. He was slated to fight Matt Howell for KOTC on February 16 and then fight in the UFC on March 4.
 
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So Card contribute the most useful info in this forum but he doesn't bet .....wtf?
 
I think I will bet the ppv is under 125g buy at pick'em odd. Honest paying customer already fork out $100 for Mayweather/McGregor fight, not going to pay another $60 for a fight night card. I recall Mighty Mouse got 350g for show & 40g for reebok but the live gate only make 188g, this guy want 2 millions for super fight? Talking about ungrateful employee.

MM kills me. Hey says, "if TJ Mrs. weight I want his purse". Borg misses weight and crickets.
 
BTW: I told myself I wouldn't do this, but I have to put something on Anthony Hamilton. Going back and watching Daniel Spitz fight the mediocre Mark Godbeer forces my hand. Spitz was totally gassed by the second round and was hit with everything but the kitchen sink. He has shitty wrestling, no real power and his defense is absolutely the worst. He is a 6'7" broom stick with arms.

I'm not going to put a lot on him because I don't like betting on low level heavyweights or heavy weights in general, but after re-watching film on Spitz, I cap Hamilton around -350 or so. So at -190 I have to put something small on him and I really recommend others do the same. At least go back and watch Spitz fight Godbeer and then make up your mind.
LOL you can't cap Hamilton at -350, it's Anthony Hamilton, a proven 500 fighter in the UFC that is capable of losing to anyone. On paper he had 205er Marcel Fortuna beat everywhere but then what happened....

Hamilton is as unreliable as it gets, even for a heavyweight and Daniel Sptiz is about as bad as UFC heavyweights get. Theres no reason not to favour Hamilton but how much can you really favour him?

Ashlee Evans Smith was meant to beat Sara Moras, on paper she had a lot of advantages but at the end of the day it's Ashlee Evans Smith and she fulfilled he role as a 500 fighter. But at least Ashlee Evans Smith's coach wasn't Rick Little.
 
No, and I was being totally hyperbolic. But after spending $4.3 billion and losing superstars like Jon Jones, Brock Lesnar, Ronda Rousey and now having to pay Conor McGregor roughly $30 million per fight fight, they are in shaky territory. With no superstar and their PPV numbers down, you start getting a bunch of panicky investors and they are the foundation of which is the UFC's structural integrity. If you get a bunch of shareholders selling their stocks like the Ferrita brothers did.

If the backbone of the UFC starts to bend it can only bend so far before it breaks. Now look, I believe that they will survive this bit of turmoil, but it could be a rough couple of years where they are hemorrhaging money.

Frank and Lorenzo along with Dana were bleeding money for nearly a decade before they started making a profit. But they were committed because they were fans and this was their baby. WME–IMG is all about the bottom dollar and they won't hesitate to pull the plug if they think they have a worthless product.

Just woke back up ventures like the ABA or XFL or Bodog fight or the United States Football League (USFL) which all were in good shape — until they weren't. The UFC is not the NFL or the MLB or the NBA or they have a mainstream audience with guaranteed revenue. Moreover, the UFC doesn't have a fighters union which makes things even worse. And with people jumping ship like Rory McDonald and Lorenz Larkin as other fighters remain unhappy with shit like Reebok, things could get ugly quick.

When you got somebody like Bellator that's owned by one of the top fortune 500 companies in Viacom, it's not implausible to see WME unloading the UFC to Sumner Redstone.

Don't get it twisted, this is a LONG ways down the road and very unlikely to even happen, but you never know.

BTW: I said Myspace because it was bought by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp for $500 million and is today worth around $27 million. <Lmaoo>

Comparing the UFC to the xfl which didn't even make it half a season before being pulled from tv? Gtfo
 
Man I just watch Spitz five with 50-year-old out of shape Cabbage and my God I wanted to set fire to my computer screen. The fight went all three rounds and it was a goddamn hiding go seek match. Even at this stage however, Cabbage was able to land hard shots or Spitz throughout the fight. Then he was in this other AMMY fight last year with a guy who is 0-0 never fighting outside pro and barely scraped by. The fighter was Russell Koharchick and he looks like he should be fighting a middleweight. He was comically out sized but he still took Spitz to a split decision LOL

I mean, Spitz is just a terrible when it comes to UFC quality HW's fighters and he probably wouldn't even crack the top 10 of Bellator HW's either. I'll be absolutely stunned if Hamilton loses to him. It's going to take something real weird for that to happen. I don't think highly of Hamilton at all really, but he is levels above Spitz from everything I've seen.
 
i think it's plenty of time to rehydrate/recover (and i have over 2u on branch)

I agree that he has plenty of time to recover but Luke is a giant 185 pound fighter and making the cut for the first time in a real real long time could have taken a lot of steam out of him. If he is not at least 85% of prime Luke Rockhold he is in trouble. Especially if this fight hits the championship rounds because David branch can swim. Also what's your member what us remember that branch was able to go the distance with the monster that is Anthony Johnson. I still think Luke gets it done — probably with a body kick — but at that betting line I can't fault anyone for taking a stab on the dog.
 
LOL you can't cap Hamilton at -350, it's Anthony Hamilton, a proven 500 fighter in the UFC that is capable of losing to anyone. On paper he had 205er Marcel Fortuna beat everywhere but then what happened....

Hamilton is as unreliable as it gets, even for a heavyweight and Daniel Sptiz is about as bad as UFC heavyweights get. Theres no reason not to favour Hamilton but how much can you really favour him?

Ashlee Evans Smith was meant to beat Sara Moras, on paper she had a lot of advantages but at the end of the day it's Ashlee Evans Smith and she fulfilled he role as a 500 fighter. But at least Ashlee Evans Smith's coach wasn't Rick Little.

Bro I agree. Hamilton isn't that good. But Spitz is probably one of the lowest tier that you can get and still be in the UFC. We will see but I think Hamilton makes it look really really easy.
 
Comparing the UFC to the xfl which didn't even make it half a season before being pulled from tv? Gtfo

Dude I'm not comparing them in size and scope, but XFL had the financial capital of a product that should have been able to turn a profit. My main point was that just like how Vince McMahon and his investors pulled the plug on the XFL when they saw it wasn't a lucrative venture, the same type of investors backing the UFC could do the same thing. Just because of the UFC been a public shared commodity with the owners having no loving attachment. For 15 years the UFC was never a publicly traded company through ZUFFA and it was the baby of the investors so they didn't care to bleed money to try and make their dream work. That's my only point.
 
This could just be a huge misperception on my part, but does Luke strike anyone else as at least somewhat of a frontrunner? Meaning a guy who's terrific when he's the hammer, but who isn't gonna fight like a dog when he's the nail? I'm trying to think back to any times he's overcome real adversity to win. Chris I guess won the early part of the fight against him and then threw that silly spinning kick that Luke parlayed into the stoppage. But Luke was never really in trouble there, wasn't trying to battle fatigue, etc.

Branch rd 4 is +3050 and Branch rd 5 is +3800. If Branch survives Luke's superior skill early, I think he may be able to make this a war of attrition. A dogfight where cardio ends up being a big factor. Luke is a giant MW that cuts a lot of weight. If Luke thinks he'll walk through Branch and after rd 3 Branch is still there, still in his face...

Obviously just tiny amounts for props like this, but I think they do have a shot.
 
Double parlay lock

Anthony hamilton
+
Justin ledet


Laying the juice this time...will post slip later in the slip thread. Lets fuckin get it boys
 
MY stats say Branch +172 is EV of this bet. If I had blind faith in them I would have already shoved an assload of money on him.

I am trying to subjectively assess the matchup to decide whether it is a still good opportunity or not in spite of Branch pillow fists. Of course he has SOME chance of KO, just have a hard time seeing it as > 10%. He hit Magalhaes in the face lots but still didn't KO him, and Magalhaes chin is probably just as bad as Rockhold or worse.

If you watch that fight, Branch really didn't want to mess around in Vinny's guard by following him to the mat (kind easy to figure out why). As good a grappler as Luke is with top position, don't think that Branch would have that same hesitation at all if he were to drop Luke. Luke off his back just isn't in Vinny's class at all. The couple times Branch did start to go there, he wasn't super aggressive as he was so wary of Vinny's guard.
 
We don't really have strong reasons to suspect Rockhold has a 'terrible chin', most likely it's about average. The main reason he got ko'd by Bisping isn't because he has a paper chin, but because of pure hubris, he got sloppy and careless and got his head snapped by a punch he didn't see coming. The best kind of punch to hit someone with for a ko, because it's so sudden you can't brace for it. Same way OSP embarrassed Shogun.

So banking on Branch getting a ko because of Rockhold's supposedly great weakness is pretty silly imo, although I'm sure he's perfectly capable of it....under the right circumstances. ;)

Exactly... KOing people is less a function of being a "heavy hitter" than having the ability to slip punches and hit people with shots they don't see coming. Bisping, who used to be a pure accumulation guy, has developed this ability recently, and Branch, thus far at least, has not shown it.

Personally I'm all over the o2.5 on this one. What a gift that this is set at -120 for a 5 rounder.
 
This could just be a huge misperception on my part, but does Luke strike anyone else as at least somewhat of a frontrunner? Meaning a guy who's terrific when he's the hammer, but who isn't gonna fight like a dog when he's the nail? I'm trying to think back to any times he's overcome real adversity to win. Chris I guess won the early part of the fight against him and then threw that silly spinning kick that Luke parlayed into the stoppage. But Luke was never really in trouble there, wasn't trying to battle fatigue, etc.

Branch rd 4 is +3050 and Branch rd 5 is +3800. If Branch survives Luke's superior skill early, I think he may be able to make this a war of attrition. A dogfight where cardio ends up being a big factor. Luke is a giant MW that cuts a lot of weight. If Luke thinks he'll walk through Branch and after rd 3 Branch is still there, still in his face...

Obviously just tiny amounts for props like this, but I think they do have a shot.

Yes and all work as a front runner. I just like making 185 these days kill him but I believe he has some dog in him. He did come back from a lot of adversity against Weidman and I have a war with January in which he went five arduous rounds came out the winner.

In many ways I think of Branch as the poor man's Jacare, and I say that with the upmost respect in the world. That is because Jacare is a an A+ level fighter and Luke beat him in his prime. But Branch and Jacare have very similar styles. Both are built pretty much the same. Both have near boxing centric approaches, with Jacare is a few notches up on Branch in this department. Additionally, both Branch and Jacare love to hit the takedown from the clinch and are both BJJ black belts with great top control. Again though, Jacare is a few levels ahead in this area as well. Having said that, I think Branch might have a higher fight IQ then Jacare. Summarily, if Branch can be even 75% of prime Jacare and simultaneously catch a rusty Luke coming off major surgeries and who is drained from a massive weight cut, you have the recipe for an upset.

I like Branch x DEC personally.
 
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