UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

[MMA Goodfella]

Dam Gonzalez is a beast at '55

I had to make and post this..

They were my thoughts so I projected them on to this guy...

 

[Kthankss]

Man USADA has done a number on some of these guys... Not sure what's going on with Rockhold (Sick/weight cut/Usada) but he looks completely different. Huge size disparity with Lombard and Smith also... I'm taking:

Smith ML @ +100 for 1 unit
Moraes submission or on points @ +650 .5 unit
Branch ML @ +400 for 1 unit
Alex Reyes ML @ +375 for 1 unit

Are most people on Gilbert Burns? I've noticed his price has come in a little...

 

[Rapidryan88]

Had a muggy parlay
30 gets 91.6 with William hill odds boost
Ledet
Gillespie
Sam creasey
Akhmetov
Rahardian

 

[AmericanBeauty]

Man I just watch Spitz five with 50-year-old out of shape Cabbage and my God I wanted to set fire to my computer screen. The fight went all three rounds and it was a goddamn hiding go seek match. Even at this stage however, Cabbage was able to land hard shots or Spitz throughout the fight. Then he was in this other AMMY fight last year with a guy who is 0-0 never fighting outside pro and barely scraped by. The fighter was Russell Koharchick and he looks like he should be fighting a middleweight. He was comically out sized but he still took Spitz to a split decision LOL

I mean, Spitz is just a terrible when it comes to UFC quality HW's fighters and he probably wouldn't even crack the top 10 of Bellator HW's either. I'll be absolutely stunned if Hamilton loses to him. It's going to take something real weird for that to happen. I don't think highly of Hamilton at all really, but he is levels above Spitz from everything I've seen.

hahha you are not alone brother hahahahaah

 

[Jamah]

I'm surprised that nobody is on Lombard. Smith was getting destroyed by Sanchez and almost quitted on r1. The only fight that he won without getting hurt badly was against Elvis Mutapcic.
This is a close fight to call because USADA Lombard can't be trusted either, but I'm going to make an small bet on him. I think that he will take him down and work on top.

 

[Stunna77]

I'm surprised that nobody is on Lombard. Smith was getting destroyed by Sanchez and almost quitted on r1. The only fight that he won without getting hurt badly was against Elvis Mutapcic.
This is a close fight to call because USADA Lombard can't be trusted either, but I'm going to make an small bet on him. I think that he will take him down and work on top.

If Lombard was smart he would use his judo, but he has been content to strike lately and is giving up a LOT in physical advantages to Smith. The size difference, post USADA, gas tank, age, etc, makes Smith as easy bet for me when he was evens. Lombard needs a rd1 finish or to use his wrestling all 3 (not sure he has the gas for it) and Smith is no slouch on the ground.

 

[Jamah]

I don't like what I've seen from Smith on the ground so far, and I don't trust Smith's cardio even after he solved his lyme disease.
He gassed very fast against Sanchez, but he was able to win because Sanchez gassed harder in the later rounds because he doesn't know how to use is energy properly.
I took Lombard +110, but I like Smith at evens too, I think that it's a close fight. Please Lombard take him down.

 

[rille31]

I'm surprised that nobody is on Lombard. Smith was getting destroyed by Sanchez and almost quitted on r1. The only fight that he won without getting hurt badly was against Elvis Mutapcic.
This is a close fight to call because USADA Lombard can't be trusted either, but I'm going to make an small bet on him. I think that he will take him down and work on top.

Lombard is the much better grappler (bjj bb) and much better td artist with his high level judo background, also propably has a boxing advantage technically but his cardio and the size of smith might be to much for him

 

[Yotsuya]

I'm surprised that nobody is on Lombard. Smith was getting destroyed by Sanchez and almost quitted on r1. The only fight that he won without getting hurt badly was against Elvis Mutapcic.
This is a close fight to call because USADA Lombard can't be trusted either, but I'm going to make an small bet on him. I think that he will take him down and work on top.

My bet on Smith is the one I'm most nervous about. I also hate myself for betting such a mediocre fighter against talented freak like Lombard. I might change my play if the odds keep getting wider.

 

[wack3d]

Rockhold struggling to speak

wow he looks pretty bad.. thought he looked less muscular too compared to his past couple fights? i am stabbing on Branch +450

 

[wack3d]

This could just be a huge misperception on my part, but does Luke strike anyone else as at least somewhat of a frontrunner? Meaning a guy who's terrific when he's the hammer, but who isn't gonna fight like a dog when he's the nail? I'm trying to think back to any times he's overcome real adversity to win. Chris I guess won the early part of the fight against him and then threw that silly spinning kick that Luke parlayed into the stoppage. But Luke was never really in trouble there, wasn't trying to battle fatigue, etc.

Branch rd 4 is +3050 and Branch rd 5 is +3800. If Branch survives Luke's superior skill early, I think he may be able to make this a war of attrition. A dogfight where cardio ends up being a big factor. Luke is a giant MW that cuts a lot of weight. If Luke thinks he'll walk through Branch and after rd 3 Branch is still there, still in his face...

Obviously just tiny amounts for props like this, but I think they do have a shot.

tailing on these props for a few peanuts +4000 and +5000 avaliable on unibet

 

[iGnP]

If Lombard was smart he would use his judo, but he has been content to strike lately and is giving up a LOT in physical advantages to Smith. The size difference, post USADA, gas tank, age, etc, makes Smith as easy bet for me when he was evens. Lombard needs a rd1 finish or to use his wrestling all 3 (not sure he has the gas for it) and Smith is no slouch on the ground.

did you bet on Smith SU or ITD? Anything on round 3 prop?

 

[Stunna77]

did you bet on Smith SU or ITD? Anything on round 3 prop?

A little on all three..1.5u in total staked

 

[mkess101]

Reyes dec +960? Admittedly I haven't seen much of him, but Perry has a tendency to head hunt and show periods of serious inactivity. Plus Perry seems to have a good chin and recovery if he does happen to get cracked. At these odds I think this is worth a stab.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Tony Martin vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier


So I finished up my film watching and finally found who I like and why. Sorry this is so long but I tried to hit all the highs and lows of the matchup. Essentially there isn't a lot to like on this card, so I'm trying to pick my spots, and I think I found one here. So…

Grappling powerhouses Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Tony Martin lock horns tonight as the main event on the FS1 preliminary card. Stylistically, we have Judo vs. good ol' 'Murican wrasslin with OAM repping the former and Martin the latter. Nevertheless, as is often the case, when two high-level grapplers meet up, neither can routinely find the takedown. So, it will be interesting to see how the TD game works out. Statistically, Martin has a solid 64% TDD ratio while OAM is virtually impenetrable with a 86.33% TDD of his own.

It should be noted however that there is a gulf of difference in their respective opponents wrestling/grappling abilities. Specifically, Martin has faced some real top-notch grappling specialists in BJJ black belts Leonardo Santos, Beneil Dariush and Fabricio Camoes, as well as the strong wrestling of a Johnny Case. Meanwhile, OAM's most formidable TD threat is a toss-up between Carlos Diego Ferreira and David Michaud. Yea. Drastic differences.

Presuming there is a stalemate in the grappling — with both men counseling out the others TD abilities — it will come down to which fighter has progressed the most in their striking. While both sides have shown marked improvement in their striking skills, I think it is Martin who has made the larger strides.

OAM is heavily muscled and still looks tight and robotic with his striking technique. He still pushes his punches and he lacks any semblance of fluidity on the feet. In fact, when facing another grappler — who he couldn't control on the mat in Ferreira — we witnessed significant stretches of the fight where OAM was just getting pieced up.

For his part, Martin looked better than ever in his last fight against Case. In what was a a near exclusive kickboxing match, Martin bested him opponent everywhere. The best takeaway for the Martin camp is how well he utilized the distance. Martin used every centimeter of his 73.5 inch wingspan to dictate where the bout took place and lambasted Case with crackling punches down the middle. In doing so he would land thunderous straight right jabs and powerful crosses and kicks to all levels. Further, Martin seamlessly integrated his wrestling as he transitioned from strikes to the blast double and single leg TD to ice the rounds.

What's more, Martin has seemingly plugged the biggest hole in his game which is his abysmal cardio. Since making his octagon debut, the foremost issue surrounding Martin has been his shallow gas tank; however, after being diagnosed with acid reflux disease and treating the ailment, his conditioning has been remarkable. The fight with Case was a very high volume affair and Martin only got sharper as the fight wore on.

At the end of the day both fighters are on excellent winning streaks and are beginning to reach their full potential. Martin has reeled off 3 straight while OAM has secured victory in back to back appearances. Both have looked absolutely exceptional in their last few outings as Martin just scored his biggest win over the aforementioned Case and OAM has taken off his decision shackles while forcing both Drew Dober and Thibault Gouti to tap-out.

It's also worth noting, OAM hasn't been in there with many good opponents whereas Martin has faced a school of sharks since debuting.

Particularly, Martin's opposition has been the previously mentioned duo of grappling juggernauts in Santos and Dariush then the formidable Case to finish off the trifecta of animals in there. Not mentioned is Russian sniper Rashid Magomedov who Martin also tangled with. Conversely, OAM's biggest threats have been the unranked pair of fighters Carlos Diego Ferreira and Chad Laprise — both of whom he fell victim to. His best win is likely against the C-level LW in Drew Dober.

Summarily, I believe that it is Martin who has more advantages in this contest. Basically, if his conditioning holds up — like it did in the Case fight —!he should find success. I think he has better striking, is quicker, more explosive and definitely the better striker. He's also confident as hell right now. In this fight with Case, he drew a line in the sand and dared his opponent to cross it. Indeed, Martin planted his feet and through bombs with both precision and conviction. That could be the difference in this tilt.

By-and-large I believe we get a protracted kickboxing match here where Martin will be the man landing the cleaner and effective strikes. That said, playing the OAM round three prop at +2000 (or whatever it is now) is not the worst idea.

PREDICTION: Martin via DEC

 

[mkess101]

Yes and all work as a front runner. I just like making 185 these days kill him but I believe he has some dog in him. He did come back from a lot of adversity against Weidman and I have a war with January in which he went five arduous rounds came out the winner.

In many ways I think of Branch as the poor man's Jacare, and I say that with the upmost respect in the world. That is because Jacare is a an A+ level fighter and Luke beat him in his prime. But Branch and Jacare have very similar styles. Both are built pretty much the same. Both have near boxing centric approaches, with Jacare is a few notches up on Branch in this department. Additionally, both Branch and Jacare love to hit the takedown from the clinch and are both BJJ black belts with great top control. Again though, Jacare is a few levels ahead in this area as well. Having said that, I think Branch might have a higher fight IQ then Jacare. Summarily, if Branch can be even 75% of prime Jacare and simultaneously catch a rusty Luke coming off major surgeries and who is drained from a massive weight cut, you have the recipe for an upset.

I like Branch x DEC personally.

I think Branch is more measured in his striking entrances than Jacare. And while he's a very solid grappler, he's far from Jacare level. But I do see some similarities too. I did hit Branch dec +887 too a few weeks ago. I agree that has some value.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm on a lot more juiced favs this card combined with golf and then a few dogs. Branch points, Perry/Reyes ITD, OAM, Lombard, Gregor, Usman, Ledet, Spitz/Hamilton ITD, Hall, and Burns.

 

[ChoKuRei]

Tony Martin vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier


So I finished up my film watching and finally found who I like and why. Sorry this is so long but I tried to hit all the highs and lows of the matchup. Essentially there isn't a lot to like on this card, so I'm trying to pick my spots, and I think I found one here. So…

Grappling powerhouses Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Tony Martin lock horns tonight as the main event on the FS1 preliminary card. Stylistically, we have Judo vs. good ol' 'Murican wrasslin with OAM repping the former and Martin the latter. Nevertheless, as is often the case, when two high-level grapplers meet up, neither can routinely find the takedown. So, it will be interesting to see how the TD game works out. Statistically, Martin has a solid 64% TDD ratio while OAM is virtually impenetrable with a 86.33% TDD of his own.

It should be noted however that there is a gulf of difference in their respective opponents wrestling/grappling abilities. Specifically, Martin has faced some real top-notch grappling specialists in BJJ black belts Leonardo Santos, Beneil Dariush and Fabricio Camoes, as well as the strong wrestling of a Johnny Case. Meanwhile, OAM's most formidable TD threat is a toss-up between Carlos Diego Ferreira and David Michaud. Yea. Drastic differences.

Presuming there is a stalemate in the grappling — with both men counseling out the others TD abilities — it will come down to which fighter has progressed the most in their striking. While both sides have shown marked improvement in their striking skills, I think it is Martin who has made the larger strides.

OAM is heavily muscled and still looks tight and robotic with his striking technique. He still pushes his punches and he lacks any semblance of fluidity on the feet. In fact, when facing another grappler — who he couldn't control on the mat in Ferreira — we witnessed significant stretches of the fight where OAM was just getting pieced up.

For his part, Martin looked better than ever in his last fight against Case. In what was a a near exclusive kickboxing match, Martin bested him opponent everywhere. The best takeaway for the Martin camp is how well he utilized the distance. Martin used every centimeter of his 73.5 inch wingspan to dictate where the bout took place and lambasted Case with crackling punches down the middle. In doing so he would land thunderous straight right jabs and powerful crosses and kicks to all levels. Further, Martin seamlessly integrated his wrestling as he transitioned from strikes to the blast double and single leg TD to ice the rounds.

What's more, Martin has seemingly plugged the biggest hole in his game which is his abysmal cardio. Since making his octagon debut, the foremost issue surrounding Martin has been his shallow gas tank; however, after being diagnosed with acid reflux disease and treating the ailment, his conditioning has been remarkable. The fight with Case was a very high volume affair and Martin only got sharper as the fight wore on.

At the end of the day both fighters are on excellent winning streaks and are beginning to reach their full potential. Martin has reeled off 3 straight while OAM has secured victory in back to back appearances. Both have looked absolutely exceptional in their last few outings as Martin just scored his biggest win over the aforementioned Case and OAM has taken off his decision shackles while forcing both Drew Dober and Thibault Gouti to tap-out.

It's also worth noting, OAM hasn't been in there with many good opponents whereas Martin has faced a school of sharks since debuting.

Particularly, Martin's opposition has been the previously mentioned duo of grappling juggernauts in Santos and Dariush then the formidable Case to finish off the trifecta of animals in there. Not mentioned is Russian sniper Rashid Magomedov who Martin also tangled with. Conversely, OAM's biggest threats have been the unranked pair of fighters Carlos Diego Ferreira and Chad Laprise — both of whom he fell victim to. His best win is likely against the C-level LW in Drew Dober.

Summarily, I believe that it is Martin who has more advantages in this contest. Basically, if his conditioning holds up — like it did in the Case fight —!he should find success. I think he has better striking, is quicker, more explosive and definitely the better striker. He's also confident as hell right now. In this fight with Case, he drew a line in the sand and dared his opponent to cross it. Indeed, Martin planted his feet and through bombs with both precision and conviction. That could be the difference in this tilt.

By-and-large I believe we get a protracted kickboxing match here where Martin will be the man landing the cleaner and effective strikes. That said, playing the OAM round three prop at +2000 (or whatever it is now) is not the worst idea.

PREDICTION: Martin via DEC

Love it. Ive also been feeling good about tony in this matchup, you da man.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

hahha you are not alone brother hahahahaah

Great to know! I know Hamilton is a flake, but Spitz is just sooooooooo bad! He has no power in his punches, hey is slow as molasses, his striking defense is abysmal as he keeps his head straight up in the air like a fucking flagpole and he gases out abruptly. One minute he'll look decent and then the next the bottom has completely fallen out. If Hamilton just wants to get a win and play it safe, he can close the distance with his speed and bull rush Spitz up against the cage and dump him on his ass repeatedly. Potentially scoring a submission or TKO from elbows inside of Spitz's guard.

What's more, Hamilton desperately needs a victory to stave off the dreaded pink slip, and I think that he is going to take the path of least resistance and just blanket Spitz for as long as the fight goes. Alternatively, he could storm Spitz like he did Granowski and quickly end it with some thunder.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

So Card contribute the most useful info in this forum but he doesn't bet .....wtf?

Hey just enjoys MMA immensely and plays fantasy leagues and shit. We have tried desperately for years to fund @Card a betting account where all the regulars chip in $20 or so, but he has declined it over and over. I really appreciate what my man does to help us, as he gives us in valuable information regarding every conceivable angle of the participating fighters. In short Card is the fucking man.

At the end of the day everyone just appreciate it and make sure to let him know from time to time that…