UFN 119 - Machida vs Brunson - Sao Paulo

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To play devils advocate. You say he relies on reflexes which is one of the things that tend to fade fast in your 30s and Machida is 39 now. Also, I think Machidas has really bad punching power at middle weight. He hit Weidman clean several times with full power without Weidman even flinching basicly. I'd certainly agree that Brunson has a bunch of defensive flaws but I dont see Machida being able to take advantage at this stage of his career.

Fair enough. I kind of thought that after I wrote it. . Reflexes will play a significant part but I guess my point was that Machida has never been a super athlete or a fighter who requires one major athleticism like a Roy Jones Jr.. Instead he is more about timing and setting traps, more like a Bernard Hopkins who fought successfully into his late 40s. Indeed, Machida’s historically been a fighter who lays back in the cut and waits for his opponent to get frustrated and then run into a flamethrower. Just like what happened with Rashad Evans and Ryan Bader.

And we seen Derek do this exact same thing when he faced off against Robert Whittaker. What’s more, I believe Machida has just as much left in the tank is Anderson Silva — if not more — and DB was so tentative to engage there. Ergo, I believe he may get over aggressive this time searching for a definitive finish and get smoked.

Additionally, I think the two years away my do Machida some good considering that he had lost three of his last four and his brain needed a rest. He has been in the gym honing his skills at the highest levels and getting his mind right. Plus putting together new techniques and letting his body rest. This could be a vintage performance from Machid; kind of when Dominick Cruz came back and ran through Miz like a hot knife through butter
 
The funny thing was that he admitted he posted in error before actually seeing the actual weigh ins. People called him on it. And now they are funny. If he had money on Brooks he'd be screaming in here how it's great news from Brooks.

Just try to be level headed no matter who you bet. It was a very bad look. But I really hope Fig pulls it out
LOL "level headed"

You were literally making stuff up, saying he was "off balance and he looked like he was going to fall over". Then saying "he was putting on a poker face".....the guy was literally crying in front of everyone how is that a poker face?

The guy made weight like he always does and he wasn't late to weigh in

I never denied he had a hard cut, I know how much he cuts but you were totally blowing it out of proportion because of the crying. People seem to forget that crying it an emotion response not a physical one. If he wasn't crying, no one would have been saying much. People are so quick to jump to conclusions, due diligence.
 
LOL at CC saying that he’s going to submit Maia now. Goddamnit, this maniac probably believes what he is saying. He was a Junie Browning type of guy in college which got him kicked out of one University — I think it was Iowa State but don’t quote me — which forced him to go to a JUCO and then finally transfer to Oregon state when he had his shit together. But he was a bully in school from all accounts. A loud mouth party boy and thug in the Junie Browning/JT Money style of persona. This is why he was awarded him the apropos monicker of “Chaos“ in school. Now I have to shave a bit of money off of him.

My main plays are going to be : (roughly)
Covington ML-125 1.25 units
Covington X decision +155 3.00u
Covington r3 +1700 0.2 units
Maia r1 +690 1.00 units
 
LOL at CC saying that he’s going to submit Maia now. Goddamnit, this maniac probably believes what he is saying. He was a Junie Browning type of guy in college which got him kicked out of one University — I think it was Iowa State but don’t quote me — which forced him to go to a JUCO and then finally transfer to Oregon state when he had his shit together. But he was a bully in school from all accounts. A loud mouth party boy and thug in the Junie Browning/JT Money style of persona. This is why he was awarded him the apropos monicker of “Chaos“ in school. Now I have to shave a bit of money off of him.

My main plays are going to be : (roughly)
Covington ML-125 1.25 units
Covington X decision +155 3.00u
Covington r3 +1700 0.2 units
Maia r1 +690 1.00 units

I'm hedging with 0.5u on CC Sub 3 @ +5700. I don't think he's going to win, but I overwhelmingly see it coming via late RNC if he does.
 
and when he gets in a grappling exchange he is tough to shake. Once on top
I got offered the fight 3 weeks ago, but they didn't announced it yet, was already training to take a fight in Oct, Nov, weight was good, UFC reached out to me, we both pressure, both have good submission, fight similar, FOTN, last fight I had 4 fights in 8 months and it was hard on my body, the weigh cuts, I wasn't 100%, I should have waited, will win by KO



If all of this is true, I think Luque should be a bigger favorite than he is. I was hesitant to pull the trigger but if he's close to 100% he should take this.
 
LOL "level headed"

You were literally making stuff up, saying he was "off balance and he looked like he was going to fall over". Then saying "he was putting on a poker face".....the guy was literally crying in front of everyone how is that a poker face?

The guy made weight like he always does and he wasn't late to weigh in

I never denied he had a hard cut, I know how much he cuts but you were totally blowing it out of proportion because of the crying. People seem to forget that crying it an emotion response not a physical one. If he wasn't crying, no one would have been saying much. People are so quick to jump to conclusions, due diligence.

Lol at you saying I made something by saying I thought he looked like he was trying to steady himself and looked unstable.

Have you still not watched it?

You even admitted you commented before you actually watched it.

If you didn't see how he walked to the scale then we just see things differently.

Then you jump back in when he's rehydrated as if you won a game of tic tac toe. SEE GUYS. LOOK GUYS! Do you even know how a bad cut effects a fighter? It will effect him in the second and third rounds. Not a few hours after he's rehydrated. Jesus

I think he can still win and I've probably got 5X more money on the guy than you do. But I'm not gonna be blinded by my bet.

You are probably the most hyperbolic poster in here. EZMONEY this EZMONEY that.

Once again. If Brooks came out like that at the weigh ins. You'd be screaming EZMONEY! Brooks almost died at the scale
 
Lol at you saying I made something by saying I thought he looked like he was trying to steady himself and looked unstable.

Have you still not watched it?

You even admitted you commented before you actually watched it.

If you didn't see how he walked to the scale then we just see things differently.

Then you jump back in when he's rehydrated as if you won a game of tic tac toe. SEE GUYS. LOOK GUYS! Do you even know how a bad cut effects a fighter? It will effect him in the second and third rounds. Not a few hours after he's rehydrated. Jesus

I think he can still win and I've probably got 5X more money on the guy than you do. But I'm not gonna be blinded by my bet.

You are probably the most hyperbolic poster in here. EZMONEY this EZMONEY that.

Once again. If Brooks came out like that at the weigh ins. You'd be screaming EZMONEY! Brooks almost died at the scale
SMH, just take the L champ, you were making stuff up, go watch the video again.
 
I think the whole line on Lineker vs. Vera is crazy....Lineker does one thing - plows forward the entire fight, constantly gets hits and throws looping hooks. If he didn’t have a ridiculous chin he wouldn’t be able to fight and his chin will deteriorate eventually.

Vera will have a huge size advantage and seems to massively improve every fight (even when on short notice)

I can see many paths that Vera can win this. Very surprised he’s still such a big dog
 
If all of this is true, I think Luque should be a bigger favorite than he is. I was hesitant to pull the trigger but if he's close to 100% he should take this.
agreed i will take a stab on Luque i think there is a good chance this could look like a mismatch.. if Luque starts to slow there is always livebet to cover
 
I think the whole line on Lineker vs. Vera is crazy....Lineker does one thing - plows forward the entire fight, constantly gets hits and throws looping hooks. If he didn’t have a ridiculous chin he wouldn’t be able to fight and his chin will deteriorate eventually.

Vera will have a huge size advantage and seems to massively improve every fight (even when on short notice)

I can see many paths that Vera can win this. Very surprised he’s still such a big dog

I think some people are overrating vera massively. Looked horrible against ning and pickett and pulled a nice sub out the bag last time that will prob be his defining moment. Lineker is going to deztroy him
 
Likely the same way
T-Wood beat Maia
Matt Hughes beat Renzo, Royce, and Renato Verissimo (Charuto)
Ricco Rodriguez beat Big Nog (in reality lol)
Usman beat Moraes
Guida beat Haoki
Phil Davis beat Vinny Magalhães
Hendo beat Big Nog
Brock beat Mir II

There is no one litmus test that’s going to give a definitive answer as to how this or any other D1 Wrestler vs. high level BJJ black belt plays out. But plenty of d1-wrestlers have used their top heavy pressure and solid fundamentals to best BJJ black belts many of times throughout MMA history. Remember, this isn’t a strict BJJ match and to quote Renzo Gracie said, “Ig you punch a black belt once he becomes a brown belt. Punch a brown belt he becomes a purple belt. Punch a purple belt..”. You get the idea.
Well thought out reply and agree with all of these except for the T-Wood and Maia as example for two reasons:
1) We can't really compare CC to Woodley. Woodley is levels ahead.
2) Woodley is not just a phenomenal wrestler. He is, without a doubt, the holder of a "best takedown defense" title in UFC. This is why Maia also failed so badly. How likely it is that CC's TDD is as good or similar? I'd say very low.
 
Will not be offering a free play for this card. Swamped with capping MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA for my loyal subscribers of Barry's Handicapping Service.
However, I promise to offer a value pick for UFC 217 due to the sheer awesomeness of the card.
I do want to remind everyone that doing your due diligence is a must before betting a BRAZILIAN event.
Favoritism and shenanigans should be a major factor that should not be overlooked fellas.

Have an open challenge on the table: $5000 dollar "beatheBarry" offer for anyone who wants to go toe to toe with Sherdog's resident handicapping savant. #maddcapper #geniusbettor
Your 5k to my 5k. Many of the critics here lambasting yours truly, but I back up my talk and I admit I am a confident son of a gun. I didn't get to where I am today through sheer luck, just good ol' fashioned blood, sweat and tears.

Want to encourage everyone who thinks Donald Trump isn't fit to be President to call your representatives to demand change. #ImpeachTrump
I'm having literal nightmares that nuclear armageddon is going to happen when #notmypresident goes to war with North Korea. Please, we need to find a way to get Bernie to replace Trump.
We the people are the only ones who have the power to unite and implement change. #dotherightthing

- Barry
 
Lol at you saying I made something by saying I thought he looked like he was trying to steady himself and looked unstable.

Have you still not watched it?

You even admitted you commented before you actually watched it.

If you didn't see how he walked to the scale then we just see things differently.
I have money on Fig. The pained expression was obviously a way too get into his opponents head, making brooks think fig is not 100%. The tears he shed are just sheer dedication to his weight cut, will do all it takes to lose water. I am even more confident that fig will win. #EZMONEY
 
just stumbled onto munhoz-font O2.5 -145...

how's this not been mentioned hehe.

neither guy has ever been finished.

i do have a play on munhoz sub +800 and munhoz NSC +210, but it very easily could (and maybe likely will) go all 3. gotta take some.
 
Isn't a patient Brunson the guy that lost to Anderson.

he knows he has five rounds.

im going to wait to live bet brunson and hoping for a machida good first round which can definately happen
 
It seems that Mark Dellagrotte is not going to be in Rob Font's corner, it doesn't even seem like he was involved in Font's camp for this fight. I've been checking out Font's instagram and he's been doing his camp under a coach called Tyson Chartier.

Chartier's instagram is full of posts from team Font down in Brazil and Mark Dellagrotte does not appear to be with the team. Mark Dellagrotte has also made no mention of Font's fight on social media.

I think this makes a big difference, Dellagrotte is always in Font's corner, how will Font perform without him. I really don't like that this fight is in Brazil for Font, last time he was in Brazil it didn't go well for him, tough opponent but Font looked off.

After watching more tape on Font and Munhoz, I really like Munhoz's chances a lot more than I did before. It also seems that Fury has bet Font so maybe Munhoz's odds will get back up to +150ish
 
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Many..
I think the whole line on Lineker vs. Vera is crazy....Lineker does one thing - plows forward the entire fight, constantly gets hits and throws looping hooks. If he didn’t have a ridiculous chin he wouldn’t be able to fight and his chin will deteriorate eventually.

Vera will have a huge size advantage and seems to massively improve every fight (even when on short notice)

I can see many paths that Vera can win this. Very surprised he’s still such a big dog
Many... paths? Like what lol. Lineker is gonna work him
 
Will not be offering a free play for this card. Swamped with capping MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA for my loyal subscribers of Barry's Handicapping Service.
However, I promise to offer a value pick for UFC 217 due to the sheer awesomeness of the card.
I do want to remind everyone that doing your due diligence is a must before betting a BRAZILIAN event.
Favoritism and shenanigans should be a major factor that should not be overlooked fellas.

Have an open challenge on the table: $5000 dollar "beatheBarry" offer for anyone who wants to go toe to toe with Sherdog's resident handicapping savant. #maddcapper #geniusbettor
Your 5k to my 5k. Many of the critics here lambasting yours truly, but I back up my talk and I admit I am a confident son of a gun. I didn't get to where I am today through sheer luck, just good ol' fashioned blood, sweat and tears.

Want to encourage everyone who thinks Donald Trump isn't fit to be President to call your representatives to demand change. #ImpeachTrump
I'm having literal nightmares that nuclear armageddon is going to happen when #notmypresident goes to war with North Korea. Please, we need to find a way to get Bernie to replace Trump.
We the people are the only ones who have the power to unite and implement change. #dotherightthing

- Barry
I accepted a while ago... crickets. Don't be scared homie ;)
 
Well thought out reply and agree with all of these except for the T-Wood and Maia as example for two reasons:
1) We can't really compare CC to Woodley. Woodley is levels ahead.
2) Woodley is not just a phenomenal wrestler. He is, without a doubt, the holder of a "best takedown defense" title in UFC. This is why Maia also failed so badly. How likely it is that CC's TDD is as good or similar? I'd say very low.

Thanks and on reflection I agree. I was just trying to present successful instances where high-level division one wrestlers defeated equally high level BJJ black belts and this was the case here. Moreover, T-Wood and Maia just happened so it was at the forefront of my mind LOL Nevertheless your rebuttal rings true.
 
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