UFN 121 - Werdum vs Tybura - Australia

[betrayedlurker]

Alright, you convinced me. I just doubled my Kelly +3½ points wager. Risking 3.2 units to win 2 units now.

Respect. I'll be cheering for you dawg.

 

[Sadistics]

i think he's going to win, most people think the opposite.

What's your Tybura reasoning? I struggle to see where he holds any advantage

 

[mkess101]

Most likely gonna be a smaller card than normal for me, unless live lines look extra juicy.

I like the Kelly +3.5 too, I had to take -170 but still good value. I also put a little on his dec line at +290

Really playing a lot of overs and fight go distance props, and fading Hamilton's chin with Wiezcorek KO.

 

[mkess101]

What's your Tybura reasoning? I struggle to see where he holds any advantage

I don't think Tybura wins but hell if I'm gonna lay the juice on Werdum. Tybura is more a threat than the Big Ticket was, and HW just has that craziness that seems to happen.

You know what prop has value to me? NOT Werdum by sub at -190. Just way too many ways the fight can play out to think that 1/3 the time this ends with Werdum winning by sub. I think it's more like 20-25% that Werdum wins by sub. I'm hitting this prop for a few units.

 

[Jamah]

I don't think Tybura wins but hell if I'm gonna lay the juice on Werdum. Tybura is more a threat than the Big Ticket was, and HW just has that craziness that seems to happen.

You know what prop has value to me? NOT Werdum by sub at -190. Just way too many ways the fight can play out to think that 1/3 the time this ends with Werdum winning by sub. I think it's more like 20-25% that Werdum wins by sub. I'm hitting this prop for a few units.

Betting on Werdum at the current odds isn't smart IMO. Werdum is going to struggle to get Marcin to the mat, and even if he does, it's not like he is going to get an easy sub. Tybura's BJJ isn't bad at all.
Marcin isn't a power puncher and Werdum's chin is solid, but Tybura knocking Werdum out with a head kick wouldn't suprise me.

 

[piglord]

What's your Tybura reasoning? I struggle to see where he holds any advantage

i think the standup is going to be competitive and he may have an edge, i also think he's good enough to stuff the takedowns. it's not like werdum is a great wrestler anyway. i don't expect tybura to get raped like walt.

i also love fading guys who're coming off spectacular wins. honestly the +300 is too enticing to pass up.

 

[mkess101]

Betting on Werdum at the current odds isn't smart IMO. Werdum is going to struggle to get Marcin to the mat, and even if he does, it's not like he is going to get an easy sub. Tybura's BJJ isn't bad at all.
Marcin isn't a power puncher and Werdum's chin is solid, but Tybura knocking Werdum out with a head kick wouldn't suprise me.

What do you think about NOT Werdum by sub at -190? As you said, Tybura isn't some scrub on the mat (not Werdum level, but good enough to survive probably). And that's assuming the fight even goes there. The more I think about it, the more I like this bet.

 

[BatBoyJG]

i think the standup is going to be competitive and he may have an edge, i also think he's good enough to stuff the takedowns. it's not like werdum is a great wrestler anyway. i don't expect tybura to get raped like walt.

i also love fading guys who're coming off spectacular wins. honestly the +300 is too enticing to pass up.

Agreed I have 2u on it

 

[Jamah]

What do you think about NOT Werdum by sub at -190? As you said, Tybura isn't some scrub on the mat (not Werdum level, but good enough to survive probably). And that's assuming the fight even goes there. The more I think about it, the more I like this bet.

I like it too

 

[EzFlyer]

Who is going to be the underdog that nobody talked about that wins this time? Hamilton or Young? (or Mokhtarian)

hey i have young NSC!

 

[EzFlyer]

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-121-pbp-discussion.3660979/