UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 25, 2017.

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  1. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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  2. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    i've loaded up on cub early here. i really like this line. he's too fast for ortega. it's just that simple.

    confident that i will be able to hedge live if needed, as ortega is a tricky/opportunistic guy who can come from behind.
     
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  3. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    cub gonna beat ortegas face in for 2.5 rounds then dive into a guillotine, mark my words.
     
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  4. SBJJ

    SBJJ Red Belt

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    image.png
     
  5. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Cub ML hard... hedged with Ortega by R3 or R5 bullshit.
     
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  6. Rebound59

    Rebound59 金繕い belt

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    Interestingly, I got on an early line on Ortega at +125 and he's now at +105 on 5dimes. I won't mind if I am proved to be wrong. I like Cub a lot.
     
  7. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    I like cub too, but is the Ortega prop bet rd 3 or rd 5?
     
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  8. Rapidryan88

    Rapidryan88 Green Belt

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    Like cub, probs live bet Ortega if cub dominates cause as proven Ortega can pull some out of the blue shit.
     
  9. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Sub r5, let’s gooo
     
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  10. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    So we are all on Cub ML with the plan to hedge Ortegra sub and/or rd5....niiiceee.
     
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  11. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Maybe also sub R3.
     
  12. BatBoyJG

    BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    I like Ortega
     
  13. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Why? He's needed miracle comebacks in 3 straight fights to make up for his mediocre striking.
     
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  14. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    The fact that he's done it 3x in a row says something though lol. The dude's durable and goes for it when he needs to. He's on track to beat Yoel's late finish title.

    I'm not on Ortega ML here especially at near-evens tho
     
  15. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    No. It really doesn't say anything about it being a consistent quality. Yoel atleast showed massive explosion. Two of those 3rd-round miracles were the other dude literally diving into subs for Ortega.
     
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  16. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    IMO this narrative about Ortega is way overblown, especially looking at the Guida and Moicano fights.

    Against Guida, two of the three judges had it 19-19 headed to the third round and Ortega was turning it up as he always does late in fights. I thought he was on his way to winning the third round if the finish didn't happen, in which case he would have won a split decision.

    Against Moicano, all three judges had it 19-19 headed to the third round and it was a very competitive round before the guillotine. Ortega easily could have won a decision if the fight continued. Despite the big differential in significant strikes landed, Ortega was the one coming forward the entire fight and landing the more damaging shots. He was absolutely relentless with his pressure and he walked through Moicano's best shots like they were nothing.

    The problem with Ortega is that in the past he's given away rounds with his lack of volume or he's spent too much time hunting subs off his back instead of trying to work his way back up. But when he's the aggressor and he has guys moving backwards, he's at his best. He's shown a granite chin, great cardio and a sense of urgency when he knows a fight is close late. He's also still only 26 with plenty of room to improve.

    I'm not sure if I'm willing to bet him against Cub at this price, but I'd be very nervous if I was big on Cub.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  17. oliverinsix

    oliverinsix Yellow Belt

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    I'll get to catch this one live. The last and first event I attended, I saw Ortega snatch up another third round finish after two competitive rounds and Jason Knight endure a barrage before he got stopped. Like both guys chances to win ITD
     
  18. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    I feel like Swanson pulls out the patented 5-round 'Legkick and volume-kickbox' gameplan of Jacksons fighters in 5-rounders, as he did against Lobov to a large degree. I don't see Ortega having the tools to deal with it, and think we're getting a fairly ho-hum 50-45.
     
  19. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Ortega's boxing looked much improved vs Moicano, perhaps we will see something new from him again. Although the lay off here isn't nearly as big as it was before so maybe not as much time to learn new techniques.
     
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  20. RuthlessRich

    RuthlessRich Ghost

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    I wanna put a fairly large bet on cub but man ortega is tough and known to comeback, cubs submission losses plays into his main strength
     
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