UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

[And]

 

[rev0lver]

man alejandro perez looked worrying, been thinking about pulling the trigger all week now not so sure.

People gave me doubts and I finally pulled my trigger on Iuri lol. Happy that his line got better too

 

[Arkham's Notorious Geyser]

What are the odds Giles gets a submission, dude's got more submission wins than TKO's and I'm liking his Odds at 30 to win 385

I think I might go 50 for him to win by TKO, and 30 for him to win by Submission, and putting 30 on Anders to win by Knockout
I'll have covered any losses that way, I would do the rounds, but I'm not feeling to confident on that, no way to cover the losses there.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

What are the odds Giles gets a submission, dude's got more submission wins than TKO's and I'm liking his Odds at 30 to win 385

I think I might go 50 for him to win by TKO, and 30 for him to win by Submission, and putting 30 on Anders to win by Knockout
I'll have covered any losses that way, I would do the rounds, but I'm not feeling to confident on that, no way to cover the losses there.

By Giles you mean Mark Perez, right? You had me scratching my head there for a moment.

I'm already playing the Perez nsc and sub props, so I'm agreeing with you there. Don't think it's generally a good idea to play 3 opposing props on the same fight as you're planning to, and you're not 'safe' from a loss if it goes to a decision.

And a little trivia, heard Pat Millitech mentioning Anders got into mma initially because of his interest in bjj, although his style might suggest otherwise. Also noticed Anders has slimmed down a lot compared to his earlier fights, so he might be less liable to gassing.

 

[betterthanjones]

Whaaaaats up people who y'all feeling for this event? Man I only know like 3 guys on this card lmao that's what happens when you haven't been following the smaller events for like 3 years now.

So has T-City improved like, a lot? I only remember him from 2014/15, don't see nothing special in him back then. But the odds suggest otherwise. Swanson has proven that he isn't a world beater, but keeps the FW gate pretty damn tight.


Who y'all on for Moraes/Funkmaster? I'm waiting to see if the line moves in favor of Moraes and take a stab on Sterling. Sterling is a sucker to bet against man, he has that "how to win a fight 101" shit in his playbook and always makes it a close one.

Any juicy dogs or over/unders for tailing fun?

 

[danareem]

Whaaaaats up people..........

I lean Ortega slightly because of finishing ability. He showed a lot of improvement in his last fight, vs moicano.
Sterling? Idk, fail to see how he decisively beats Moraes
Lawler/Rda card next week is much better for betting imo,

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I like Knight/Benitez does not go the distance -110 on BM

 

[EzFlyer]

i'm very big on cub as i've stated, but man, i had to take some ortega sub +285.. that's how he freakin wins... pseudo hedge...

 

[betterthanjones]

I lean Ortega slightly because of finishing ability. He showed a lot of improvement in his last fight, vs moicano.
Sterling? Idk, fail to see how he decisively beats Moraes
Lawler/Rda card next week is much better for betting imo,

Well said well said spoken like a true wise bettor. Guess we'll just be looking for some tiny action this card.

I like Knight/Benitez does not go the distance -110 on BM

Damn how did I miss Jason Knight fighting on this card. Looks like a likely play, both guys do fight with aggression.

i'm very big on cub as i've stated, but man, i had to take some ortega sub +285.. that's how he freakin wins... pseudo hedge...

What's your reasoning for being big on Cub? I just don't think that highly of Ortega, but he might have inflated his ceiling since I last judged him.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Davis getting hammered a bit. Glad I some +150 earlier

 

[EzFlyer]

Fights to end in SUB
O2.5 +105 .4u
O3.5 +319 .2u
O4.5 +929 .1u
O5.5 +2850 .05u
O6.5 +11600 .02u

Could likely see subs from Ortega, Knight, Alex Perez, and Ramos. Then unlikely but possible subs from Morales/Sterling, Markus Perez, Davis, Souk, Alcantara, and Neto.

totally could see it man, thought about over subs again.. went with some stabs on U5.5 dec and below (U5.5 was +4xx), but small plays

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Heres the thing with Swanson, he's 34 years old now, he's slower than he used to be, he's less dangerous, he's on a physical decline. Artem Lobov hit Cub Swanson in the head 80 times and he took him down with a knee tap, that's concerning.

Orgeta is the younger fighter, he's undefeated and he's far more dangerous. Say all you want about Ortega's flaws but the man finds ways to win. Swanson may be the better striker, the better athlete, the better wrestler but he has 5 rounds to make errors and Ortega will capitalise on opportunities.

I just see Swanson ending up on his back in some point of the fight and once Ortega and him are on the ground it will not go well for Swanson. Ortega doesn't even need to take him down, Swanson will throw a cartwheel kick or something and end up on the mat or Ortega might drop him.

Ortega looks better everytime we see him, his striking looked the best it's ever looked last fight. If Artem can land 80 times to the head, I don't see why Ortega can't.

I'm still salty about missing Ortega at +120, thats a great bet. I don't wanna play a beat up line so I'm passing but I'll be surprised if Swanson can pull it off. Ortega clearly the sharp side

 

[null]

Every time you call the over or unders for the fights to go distance event props "dec", it reminds me when we had a rare technical decision in the UFC and it didn't count as one for the over, EZ.

 

[Gugabe]

Heres the thing with Swanson, he's 34 years old now, he's slower than he used to be, he's less dangerous, he's on a physical decline. Artem Lobov hit Cub Swanson in the head 80 times and he took him down with a knee tap, that's concerning.

Orgeta is the younger fighter, he's undefeated and he's far more dangerous. Say all you want about Ortega's flaws but the man finds ways to win. Swanson may be the better striker, the better athlete, the better wrestler but he has 5 rounds to make errors and Ortega will capitalise on opportunities.

I just see Swanson ending up on his back in some point of the fight and once Ortega and him are on the ground it will not go well for Swanson. Ortega doesn't even need to take him down, Swanson will throw a cartwheel kick or something and end up on the mat or Ortega might drop him.

Ortega looks better everytime we see him, his striking looked the best it's ever looked last fight. If Artem can land 80 times to the head, I don't see why Ortega can't.

I'm still salty about missing Ortega at +120, thats a great bet. I don't wanna play a beat up line so I'm passing but I'll be surprised if Swanson can pull it off. Ortega clearly the sharp side

Swanson should be about -250, Ortega'd already be out of the UFC if he hadn't been pulling off these miracle, low-percentage comebacks. I'd take Guida or Moicano against him in a rematch happily at even money. The Lobov 5-rounder was more a product of the Jackson's gameplan for 5-rounders, along with a case where Swanson dominated him aside from a competitive first round but it's remembered a lot more harshly than it should be since people were expecting a shellacking off the KZ fight.

Read your own logic. You're saying Swanson is a better athlete, better striker and better wrestler... but you want to take Ortega to find a miracle comeback kill-shot at even-money? Ortega hasn't shown a huge amount of power in his striking thusfar, and his submission game's being overrated. Moicano panic-wrestled him a gift, and you could see from Moicano's reaction immediately afterwards how much of a brainfart it was. I literally said, immediately after Moic-Ortega, that I'd take Lamas, Aldo, Swanson or any other top FW at -200 against him. Ortega's run is going to be remembered as a weird fluke in a year or two once he goes back to the undercard. I'd take Knight over him as a prospect.

 

[EzFlyer]

man this card is soooo top heavy.. both for betting and for fight interest. 80+% of my 20 units i have so far are on the final 5 fights right now..

i can't find angles on the first 8 fights really, just very small plays.

 

[EzFlyer]

Every time you call the over or unders for the fights to go distance event props "dec", it reminds me when we had a rare technical decision in the UFC and it didn't count as one for the over, EZ.

fuckin bs!

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Swanson should be about -250, Ortega'd already be out of the UFC if he hadn't been pulling off these miracle, low-percentage comebacks. I'd take Guida or Moicano against him in a rematch happily at even money. The Lobov 5-rounder was more a product of the Jackson's gameplan for 5-rounders, along with a case where Swanson dominated him aside from a competitive first round but it's remembered a lot more harshly than it should be since people were expecting a shellacking off the KZ fight.

Read your own logic. You're saying Swanson is a better athlete, better striker and better wrestler... but you want to take Ortega to find a miracle comeback kill-shot at even-money? Ortega hasn't shown a huge amount of power in his striking thusfar, and his submission game's being overrated. Moicano panic-wrestled him a gift, and you could see from Moicano's reaction immediately afterwards how much of a brainfart it was. I literally said, immediately after Moic-Ortega, that I'd take Lamas, Aldo, Swanson or any other top FW at -200 against him. Ortega's run is going to be remembered as a weird fluke in a year or two once he goes back to the undercard. I'd take Knight over him as a prospect.

IDK man, I think Ortega's submission game is one the most dangerous in MMA. Ortega is such an opportunist and I just believe Swanson will give him opportunities over the course of 5 rounds.

Despite all the advantages Swanson has on paper, it could be game over in once this hits the mat. Most of Swanson's losses are by submission, most of Ortega's wins are submissions.

Swanson can win this fight but he needs to fight a very smart fight, he can not afford to give Ortega certain positions. I have a hard time seeing Swanson getting a finish, he's a decision machine as of late. This means he's gotta hang tough for 5 rounds and I just think thats too long, Ortega finds ways to win. I'm not sleeping on Ortega's striking either, it literally looks better every fight.

Again, Swanson can win but he needs to fight a tactical fight which is not what he's know for. He may need to limit a significant portion of his game, no takedowns, no cartwheel kicks, no crazy combinations. By being risk averse he may make less errors but he may also sacrifice some of what makes him such a good fighter.

 

[EzFlyer]

I like Knight/Benitez does not go the distance -110 on BM

took it, good spot

 

[Jae Gibbz]

fuckin bs!

Fuck that. Ian McCall pulling out of the Jared Brooks fight was the biggest bullshit ever. If that fight happened and went to a decision which was easily the most likely outcome, I would have won ~$2000 off of $15 from the event over props. Oh yeah, it also voided all the other over event props I would have hit also

Also the Dan Omie fight... Fuck Danho. If he would have just manned up and held out instead of pussing out from that light nut shot, I would have won ~$1000 from a 3man big + odd parlay closer

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Fuck that. Ian McCall pulling out of the Jared Brooks fight was the biggest bullshit ever. If that fight happened and went to a decision which was easily the most likely outcome, I would have won ~$2000 off of $15 from the event over props. Oh yeah, it also voided all the other over event props I would have hit also

Also the Dan Omie fight... Fuck Danho. If he would have just manned up and held out instead of pussing out from that light nut shot, I would have won ~$1000 from a 3man big + odd parlay closer

Yup. Here they are.








There are my bad beats regarding event over/under props and technical decisions... Fucking bullshit