UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 25, 2017.

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  1. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    http://www.fightmetric.com/fighter-details/def8166ff24bd237

    1 td in his ufc career. 1. His debut against Mike de la Torre.

    Cub is a Jackson's lifer.. you think he's gonna take ortega down as part of gameplan? No way...

    How the hell is he the favorite against cub??

    Just don't get it. I just don't. I cap it -200 cub.
     
  2. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Someone sell me on where the value is on these.. could be ml, could be props, etc:

    Sanders-soukhamthath
    Giles-neto
    Morales-lopez
    Alex perez-de Tomas
    Alej perez-Alcantara


    Cause I got nothing. I have a very small play on alcantara sub +450, that's it for all 5.

    (And yes, the best answer might be "pass")
     
  3. quincy k

    quincy k Brown Belt

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    and his 30 percent connect ratio compared to cubs 50

    to make maters worse, absorbs one strike more per minute than landed
     
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  4. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    I have Tomas tko/ko and R1 both around 13.0. I think his chance is early on before he gets battered and tired. Same goes for Neto, so I'm playing under 2.5 and Giles R3.
     
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  5. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    i like that giles rd 3 idea, good spot
     
  6. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    how do you know this? great intel if true.
     
  7. conmemay

    conmemay Boxer-Puncher

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    Better to pass but if u want some action.. i think

    Sanders-soukhamthath - Sanders ML
    Giles-neto - Giles R3
    Morales-lopez - Morales ML
    Alex perez-de Tomas - Pass
    Alej perez-Alcantara - O2.5
     
  8. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    This is lazy on my end but ive been really busy recently- do we have any strong leans for me to degen out with?
     
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  9. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    lol, ortega ITD +185 when sub is +165.

    2 of his last 4 are ko/tko.
     
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  10. onC

    onC Blue Belt

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    For people who can play at 5dimes, Benitez ITD +822, KO/TKO +1700. Those are both just simply ridicilous.
     
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  11. bigbets36

    bigbets36 White Belt

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    My biggest bet on the card is Alex Perez it'd -115. Alex can finish Tomas on the feet or on the ground. Tomas couldent even make weight. Alex comes from a good camp and is way better than Tomas everywhere.
     
  12. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Wow. Yes, I like those. One of my favorite plays is that fight ending ITD -110. Too bad I can't hit those lines. Benitez is a southpaw against the orthodox Knight. That body kick will be open for him and Knight is questionable to the body. Benitez rips that kick very hard and fast
     
  13. turbozed

    turbozed Red Belt

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    Eh I don't really agree with this. If you're fighting Demian Maia, you're going to devote all of your focus on not getting taken down. If you're fighting Artem Lobov and are winning comfortably, you probably care little about whether you get knee tapped. The level of effort trying not to get taken down is going to be commensurate with the threat of what will happen if you do get taken down. It's misleading to take situations out of context but sometimes we do this when we want to look for evidence on decisions we've already made.

    When it comes to Ortega's lack of takedowns early in fights, it's definitely a tactical choice. He definitely doesn't want to waste energy because it looks like he's not quite as good at locking in submissions while his opponent is fresh. Aside from the De La Torre fight, he hasn't finished an opponent early since 2013. I think when you watch the Tavares and Diego Brandao fights, the reason is pretty clear. He's just not strong enough to lock up submissions when his opponent isn't tired because they just power out.

    It looked clear to me that Ortega intentionally saves some in the tank and then goes for the finish. It was most obvious in the Brandao fight. Not one attempt to really be offensive in the 2nd round, and then right as the 3rd started he's trying all sorts of stuff, jumping guard for a guillotine, and diving for the clinch.

    Likewise with his striking, it doesn't look all that threatening in the early rounds since he doesn't throw with very much power. Aside from a spinning back elbow against Brandao, nothing he throws in rds 1 and 2 seem to bother his opponent much (I haven't rewatched Moicano fight yet so not sure if he had moments in that fight).

    The fact that Ortega has a very narrow window to finish fights, and that he can't seem to win a round on points, but that he's still been able to pull out victories is amazing. All credit to him for implementing something that has worked. However, how long can it work against someone who is wise to his game? If Brandao had a bit more energy or was in full defensive mode in that 3rd round, how much longer could Ortega have dove into him looking for a sub? The strategy is bound to fail eventually, just not sure if it's this fight.
     
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  14. quincy k

    quincy k Brown Belt

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    i have round 3 as well at 2500
     
  15. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    but he did make weight...?

    devil's advocate:
    inoue is a slick sub guy and didn't sub him...
    perez wins most of his fights via decision...

    (for the record i have alex perez sub in a few rr's)
     
  16. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    rd 3 knight sub is like.. my actual pick for the fight.. hehe. if you think benitez rd 3.. you should prolly play both guys rd 3 +700 on bm (i did!)
     
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  17. quincy k

    quincy k Brown Belt

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    i rarely do rd 3s unless i get +2000 or more primarily due to the fact that you can use it as a hedge dec sometime in the 3rd round.

    most of the times there are a lot of ways you can work a +2000 rd 3 if the fight gets past the first 10 minutes in a three round fight
     
  18. onC

    onC Blue Belt

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    All of those seem juicy.

    I dont play props (limits), but Im on Benitez ML. Love watching Knight fight, but his best wins are Chas Skelly and Alex Caceres. Lamas was the first top 5 guy he faced, and he just simply got smashed.
     
  19. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    i'm totally lost on your reasoning or what you're trying to say here. you are on benitez because knight lost to a top 5 guy..? what's that got to do with anything? what's benitez's top win? sam sicilia? knight's beaten several guys who are on or above benitez's level...

    i'm not trying to knock you or anything, i just don't get the post
     
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  20. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    I favour Knight over Benitez, but Knight shouldn't be such a big fav.
    Knight striking defense isn't good and Benitez hits hard, his kicks are brutal. If the fight doesn't go the ground, it's going to be a lot closer than most people think.
    Gabriel's takedown defense isn't good, but he has trained a lot with Khabib this camp, so I expect some improvements in that area.
     
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