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UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 25, 2017.

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  1. onC

    onC Blue Belt

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    Yeah, I guess I didnt make sense. I mean that Knight is still closer to the level of the guys he beat than he is to the elite of the division (like Lamas). Benitez isnt far off from those guys in my opinion.

    Dont get me wrong, I think Knight wins around 70% of the time. I played Knight at -230 when he opened, but switched sides after watching tape (and Benitez shooting up up to +280).
     
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  2. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Tomas missed weight last fight and was well out from 125 this fight hence why they changed the fight to 135. He may not have technically missed weight but it looked highly likely he would again
     
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  3. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    that makes more sense hehe. cool, thx
     
  4. Caicara

    Caicara Purple Belt

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    I see value in Cub ITD +375
     
  5. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    What's the consensus on Morales/Lopez?
     
  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
  7. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Sanders-soukhamthath - I like Souk NSC around +200, he throws kill shots and has never been finished, Sanders has had trouble putting guys away after hurting them

    Giles-neto - Took a stab at Giles KO +212, hard to be too confident in anything with Neto's long layoff.

    Morales-lopez - Neither guy has impressed, but I do favour Morales and likely by decision. Better fundamentals and much more experience under the big lights. This will be the first time Morales has had a full camp, his 4 UFC fights have all been short notice. I'm 4-0 on Morales fights so far!

    Alex perez-de Tomas - I like your sub play, on it myself at +330, as well as 3u on his -235 ML. My most confident pick on this card but most of the value is gone now.

    Alej perez-Alcantara - Was planning on playing Alcantara NSC before it opened -270. I'm now on Perez +3.5 around evens, he always makes fights close.


    It was initially supposed to be FLW, but due to an unhealthy weight cut for Tomas it was changed to BW.
     
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  8. 2bet

    2bet Blue Belt

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    They genuienely don't like each other, a finish wouldn't surprise me.
    2,62 for U2.5 is not a bad line, but I always try to avoid betting the unders in the lower weight classes.
    I am on Morales btw
    Lopez looks like a little teenage punk and I think Morales will beat him up, Morales is way more proven
     
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  9. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    Bought out of most of my Hotzman bet. Just not feeling it
     
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  10. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Maxed Swanson/Ortega FOTN +350, with a tiny hedge on Morales/Lopez +700
     
  11. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    fuck it i'm pulling the trigger on alejandro perez. sanders gave yuri a lifechanging beating and i think there's a good chance we see yuri alcantrashcan tonight.
     
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  12. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    that's funny, i'm feeling it big time.
     
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  13. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    I'm on Benito. Longer, more athletic, smarter, better technique. His weakness is meh wrestling which Morales is not ideal to exploit.

    Of course Benito is unproven in certain ways, but for tiny juice it's worth gambling on the clearly superior talent who has been training as a fighter for longer. Morales isn't good and can easily get cut from the UFC in the near future.
     
  14. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    yea it really should get it and 350 wasn't bad. don't blame ya.

    i'm just gonna throw a dart at the dartboard on some bigger dudes.. w/the idea that maluko is a fuckin psycho and might get rocked early and come back type of deal, +850 isn't great but /shrug

    i like your +350 the best. that price is gone
     
  15. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    I'm normally not much of an over/under guy, but I'm REALLY feeling under on Knight/Benitez

    First, Benitez has terrible takedown defense and gives up his back regularly, so this fight has quick Knight submission written all over it. But even if that doesn't happen, both guys have hittable faces, crackable chins, and a bit of pop to their strikes. Throw in Benitez guillotine, and there are all sorts of ways for this to end early. Really would be surprised if it goes the distance.
     
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  16. 2bet

    2bet Blue Belt

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    I bought out of my Saenz bet for the same reason.
    Dvalishvili looks fit and fired up, while Saenz looked rather old, sad and unfit at the weigh-ins.
    I still see his upsides but the dude lost his last 3 fights and is 37 already, his career is pretty much over anyway. It might be his final UFC payday
     
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  17. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    Still on him just smaller.
     
  18. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    I'm thinking about it.
     
  19. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    Doesn't go distance is 1 of my biggest bets of the night. And I don't usually go large on over unders
     
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  20. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    anyone playing neto/giles?
     
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