UFN 124 - Stephens vs Choi - St. Louis

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I agree that Choi won the first round against Cub, 2 of the 3 judges disagreed though. And outside of the fact that he maybe should have edged a close first round (and the fact that he can take a serious beating), I didn't really see anything in that fight that I would look at as a positive moving forward. I'm also not sure I agree that Cub is a far tougher matchup.

I guess what I'm wondering is, what has Choi shown you guys that make you believe he should be -170 here? All three of his previous UFC fights ended in under three minutes. What happens if he doesn't get the early KO? IMO we have clear evidence that it's unlikely to go well for Choi.
^ what O said pretty much sums up my thoughts as well. Are you implying that Choi might have cardio issues?
 
I do not think Stephens does well against strikers. Stephens does not do well at finding angles. His power is also extremely overrated. I will say that he's improved his kicking game quite a bit though. I'd be very hesitant to conclude Stephens will give Choi trouble standing because of the Cub fight. Cub and Stephens have a very different striking style.

Agree that Cub and Stephens are different stylistically. But what strikers has Stephens not done well against since moving to 145? He had competitive fights with Holloway and a better version of Cub than the one Choi faced. If you're referring to the Moicano fight, Moicano showed excellent lateral movement and mixed in takedowns to secure rounds. Both of these are things that we have not seen from Choi.
 
^ what O said pretty much sums up my thoughts as well. Are you implying that Choi might have cardio issues?

Yes, I absolutely think he has cardio issues. It looked to me like he was already slowing down at the end of the first round and he was totally shot two minutes into the second. On top of that, he showed that he's more than willing to engage in a brawl. Technique went completely out the window in that fight.

I can understand passing on the fight, but betting Choi here as a favorite is a leap of faith IMO.
 
Agree that Cub and Stephens are different stylistically. But what strikers has Stephens not done well against since moving to 145? He had competitive fights with Holloway and a better version of Cub than the one Choi faced. If you're referring to the Moicano fight, Moicano showed excellent lateral movement and mixed in takedowns to secure rounds. Both of these are things that we have not seen from Choi.

You just named the fights. His last 3 fights (all losses) at 155 lbs were against strikers as well. The better question is when has he done well against strikers. Stephens just doesn't show much in terms of footwork, cutting angles, throwing punches straight down the middle, etc. I also don't think his power is great.

Like I said, I haven't bet the fight yet. I've been pretty good on betting for or against Stephens in his past few fights, but I don't feel good either way on this one.
 
You just named the fights. His last 3 fights (all losses) at 155 lbs were against strikers as well. The better question is when has he done well against strikers. Stephens just doesn't show much in terms of footwork, cutting angles, throwing punches straight down the middle, etc. I also don't think his power is great.

Like I said, I haven't bet the fight yet. I've been pretty good on betting for or against Stephens in his past few fights, but I don't feel good either way on this one.

Very fair points. I have 1u on Stephens at +170, so not a high confidence bet (yet anyway) for me. My argument is mainly against betting Choi at his current price.
 
Do Cho Choi started losing when Cub started to pressure him in r2. His gas tank is suspect too, he was breathing hard after r1 in his corner.
 
Choi is a stalking pressure fighter. That sounds like a dangerous opponent for somewhat singleminded Stephens. Someone who seems to be coming forward but is always ready to either counter or evade. I'm not sure if Stephens has tools to pressure back as aggressively as Swanson needed to do to get Choi off his game. Choi also seems like a person who takes losses seriously and will improve his game. It was already his attitude in ring interview after Swanson fight. One could almost see wheels turning inside Choi's head trying to figure out what went wrong and what he can improve. Choi took a ton of damage last time, but it's been a year and I'm not sure that Stephens has enough power in his hands to evoke that brain trauma.
 
Hoping for a good PVZ/JRC line
 
I'd smash PVZ as an underdog. Well, I'd smash her no matter what odds, who's even talking about betting?
 
I just finished watching tape for the Jeremy Stephens/Doo Ho Choi fight.

Doo Ho Choi is quick and very accurate and is going to have a pretty big advantage with his hands going into the fight with Jeremy Stephens, he will land with his hands. I just don't think Jeremy Stephens has good hands and tends to loads up on his shots and doesn't throw fluid combinations.

The thing that concerns me is how hittable Doo Ho Choi is, he is also vulnerable to leg kicks which he doesn't check very well and right head kicks because he keeps his lead left hand low which works in favour of Jeremy Stephens. It's a 5 round fight, Doo Ho Choi's pressure style of fighting leads him to gassing/slowing down whereas Jeremy Stephens is better at pacing himself. Jeremy Stephens is a big featherweight too, so we could possibly see him going for takedowns too if things aren't going well for him standing up.

I'd really favour Doo Ho Choi if it was 3 round fight but a 5 round fight favours Jeremy Stephens. I do favour Doo Hoo Choi in this fight just because his hands, speed, accuracy are so much better than Jeremy Stephens but other factors like his defensive striking, his pace leading him to slow down especially in a 5 round fight, at best he should only be a -130 favourite, his current line of -170 is too high. Both guys have good chins and if it goes to decision, Doo Ho Choi most likely wins on the scorecards because he will throw and land more volume unless his leg gets chopped down.
 
I just finished watching tape for the Jeremy Stephens/Doo Ho Choi fight.

Doo Ho Choi is quick and very accurate and is going to have a pretty big advantage with his hands going into the fight with Jeremy Stephens, he will land with his hands. I just don't think Jeremy Stephens has good hands and tends to loads up on his shots and doesn't throw fluid combinations.

The thing that concerns me is how hittable Doo Ho Choi is, he is also vulnerable to leg kicks which he doesn't check very well and right head kicks because he keeps his lead left hand low which works in favour of Jeremy Stephens. It's a 5 round fight, Doo Ho Choi's pressure style of fighting leads him to gassing/slowing down whereas Jeremy Stephens is better at pacing himself. Jeremy Stephens is a big featherweight too, so we could possibly see him going for takedowns too if things aren't going well for him standing up.

I'd really favour Doo Ho Choi if it was 3 round fight but a 5 round fight favours Jeremy Stephens. I do favour Doo Hoo Choi in this fight just because his hands, speed, accuracy are so much better than Jeremy Stephens but other factors like his defensive striking, his pace leading him to slow down especially in a 5 round fight, at best he should only be a -130 favourite, his current line of -170 is too high. Both guys have good chins and if it goes to decision, Doo Ho Choi most likely wins on the scorecards because he will throw and land more volume unless his leg gets chopped down.

I agree with most of your breakdown, but I strongly disagree with the last sentence. As you said, accuracy is an issue for Stephens, but volume is not. He's attempted nearly double the significant strikes of his last 3 opponents. He put out virtually identical volume to Holloway as well, and going back a little bit further, he edged Swanson in significant strikes attempted over 5 rounds.

Looking at Choi's only fight that lasted more than 3 minutes, I don't see evidence that he can sustain that kind of pace over 3 rounds, never mind 5 rounds.

As much as I've defended Stephens today, I want to make it clear that I don't think he's some amazing bet here, especially since we don't have a complete read on Choi yet with the way his UFC fights have gone. But I do think that he's the right side at current prices.
 
Way too much juice on Usman....hes a freak for sure but Meek is a savage. He subluxated his rib about halfway through the Jordan Mein fight and still won.

If you've ever done this it hurts like fucking hell, I had it happen to a rib in the back that connects to spine and couldn't move right for a few days.

Can see this fight being back and forth ending in a close decision, don't think Usman is just going to steamroll a guy like Meek
 
Very interested on the lines for Belfort/Hall, Johnson/Elkins, Alves/Cummings, Taylor/Aldrich, and Kang/Cannetti.

If the odds allow it I'll probably have plays on all of these or whittle it down to a strong 2 or 3 leg parlay.
 
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