UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

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arrelione said:
So are they a lock, are you pretty confident about the play or are you playing it small?
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I'm confident but it doesn't pay a lot, that's why I'm small.

I'm a big numbers man
 
Wow and it's only been a month - Max Holloway's UFC 222 withdrawal marks the SIXTH main or co-main event change to the UFC calendar so far in 2018.
 
So few bets for me for this card, least stake this whole year so far. Only have Machida/Anders starts round 2 @-138 and Machida nsc @+324 right now. Maybe will bet Golm NOT itd @-139. Also maybe Shev DEC or starts round 2 (-225) ?
 
Gambling Man said:
Do you think Santos is more of a lock tonight than when he fought Spicely?
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no such thing as a lock but i believe the spicely fight was an aberration. just as well because he would be unplayable tonight if his only loss in recent years was to mousasi.
 
MidgardSerpent said:
https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/9/...injury-during-ufc-fight-night-95-loss-to-eric

I believe it. He had no trouble shrugging off Theo during 3 rounds and he just got taken down effortlessly by Spicely. It's just one of those flukey things that can happen. Not worth betting at current odds, though Santos made me some very good money in the past.
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I tend to agree. That's the thing too, when a guy is -400 the prevailing thought is that they almost "can't lose". But if the odds are actually a true reflection of the fight, that guy is gonna lose 20% of the time. There's variance, weird stuff happens.

Also, at least stylistically, this fight is way different. Smith most likely will stand and bang, which is what Santos wants.
 
How long until this event starts?

I ended up drinking expecting to go out tonight but plans fell through. Might get some drunk MMA gambling on the go instead if I can say awake.

I like Iuri as a pick em, Means if his odds get a bit better, Shevchenko decision and maybe Douglas Andrade as a decent dog. Potentially Prazeres as a pick em too.
 
Soto at evens on 5d. I favor him marginally here, I think he's better than Iuri.

2u Soto ML at -105.
Tiny hedge Alcantara sub .15u at +557.
 
Dooze said:
How long until this event starts?

I ended up drinking expecting to go out tonight but plans fell through. Might get some drunk MMA gambling on the go instead if I can say awake.

I like Iuri as a pick em, Means if his odds get a bit better, Shevchenko decision and maybe Douglas Andrade as a decent dog. Potentially Prazeres as a pick em too.
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15 min
 
someone hammering the Morales line.. i am taking a shot on Figueiredo now at close to evens
 
wow Morales went from +140 to evens in a couple minutes :D
 
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