UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

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Yeah I'm with EZ, I'm in the central US time zone and I'm not really a fan. Granted, it's not a huge deal as I can still be in bed by midnight or so and get close to a normal night's sleep. But I usually like to enjoy some cocktails and I need to dial that back on a Sunday night. At least they do these Sunday cards pretty rarely I guess...

Aren't you off Monday every Sunday card? I know the kids are always off school too
 
i'm working tomorrow morning :( next work holiday is freakin memorial day.
 
Took it too, though I'd be pretty stunned if Alves/Millender ended in a sub. Otherwise though, yeah, I'm with you.

Millender has pretty weak sub defense. Personally I'm on the unders in fights to go the distance.

U5.5 +142
U4.5 +367
U3.5 +1056
U2.5 +3400
U1.5 +19700
 
Aren't you off Monday every Sunday card? I know the kids are always off school too

Ha ha I wish. I'd even entertain heading in to the office a bit late tomorrow, but my wife would just wake me up normal time to help get my daughter ready for school anyway!
 
Millender has pretty weak sub defense. Personally I'm on the unders in fights to go the distance.

U5.5 +142
U4.5 +367
U3.5 +1056
U2.5 +3400
U1.5 +19700

Man when is the last time Alves even thought about attempting a sub though?

Edit: 7 years ago (and coincidentally 7 fights ago) he subbed Abedi.
 
You all just gotta move to the Canadian mountain time zone! Main events starts at 8 pm. Just so happens it's a long weekend here as well. And it's only -18C today!

I love how Canada comes up with Holidays to match US - you even have something for Washington and Lincoln lol? I think they have one to match our Independence Day and Thanksgiving.

My favorite one is the random one that everyone calls different things, maybe Canada Day but I've heard it called different things. It's basically "a holiday to have a holiday" day lol"
 
sarah moras might have the worst stats in the game. 1.1 strikes landed per minute. 0.46 takedown per 15 (not good for a ground fighter with no striking). 9.09% takedown accuracy.

The Andrade fight really skews those stats. Other than that she fought off her back for most of the Dufresne fight and finished AES in about a minute.
 
The Andrade fight really skews those stats. Other than that she fought off her back for most of the Dufresne fight and finished AES in about a minute.
you taken a side in this one? dont take much notice of stats really. was just checking them for DK
 
So I was the one saying I'd played Yancy KO/TKO and Yancy rd 1 as my hedges to my Cerrone ML play. And @lifeisgood12345 replied that Yancy sub is in play (his argument the same as yours in that if Yancy rocks him he may go for the sub). So I guess maybe your post is directed at me? (Not sure, it's a little confusing) I did acknowledge that's a possibility (Yancy rocking then subbing Cerrone), but is very unlikely to happen. To me, the extra payout for Yancy KO (I got it at +235) vs his itd line ( was +190ish at the time I think) is worth the risk of a Yancy sub. Cerrone has 42 pro fights, and one loss by sub (gulliotine by Bendo in 2010).

Yancy is tough, but he hasn't faced anyone at Cerrone's level yet has he? And if Yancy gets rocked (which seems to happen often, although he recovers well), Cerrone is actually a lot better at transitioning from hurting someone to locking up a sub. I would say Cerrone sub is far more likely than Yancy sub (which odds agree with, +440 vs +900).

I do agree that if Yancy really hurts Cowboy he's likely to finish. That's one thing about Cerrone, he hasn't shown (esp lately) the ability to recover well after being hurt. Historically in his career it has taken a lot to actually hurt him in the first place, but he's not a guy who's recovered well once he is hurt.

No I wasnt shootin at you, I have no need to attack but in self defense. I'm admittedly biased against Cerrone, thought Till would KO him, thought Lawler would KO him, thought Masvidal would KO him and thought Brazilian Cowbo would KO hm. Prob thought Matt Brown would KO him. I'm just saying dont overlook the possibility of Yancy getting a sub.

To go further, I'd say Cerrone hasnt fought many guys who actually were a sub threat. Last time he had a minimal sub threat was RDA but he got KOed n under a mnute.
 
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The Andrade fight really skews those stats. Other than that she fought off her back for most of the Dufresne fight and finished AES in about a minute.

I'm on Moras sub due to nice odds, but I'm also gonna play Pud -3.5 at +255. If Moras can't get it to the mat, her striking does suck bad. If this fight stays standing, could easily be 30-27's across the board for Pud where Moras just looks lost the entire time.

Nothing big, as with almost any WMMA fight, but to me this is the best way to play it.
 
FFS, I was looking at Cerrone KO/TKO @6.00 earlier, come to bet it and it's moved to 4.33 :(

edit: Scratch that! Just found it boosted on Sky @6.00 - 0.5u
 
No I wasnt shootin at you, I have no need to attack but in self defense. I'm admittedly biased against Cerrone, thought Till would KO him, thought Lawler would KO him, thought Masvidal would KO him and thought Brazilian Cowbo would KO hm. I'm just saying dont overlook the possibility of Yancy getting a sub.

To go further, I'd say Cerrone hasnt fought many guys who actually were a sub threat. Last time he had a minimal sub threat was RDA but he got KOed n under a mnute.

Nah I didn't mean you were attacking me, just that your reply was responding to posts I'd made.

I mean, Cerrone has fought guys in his career that are sub threats for sure. The fights play out differently sometimes obviously. You could argue Jury is as much a sub threat as Yancy for sure, and Cerrone clowned him on the mat. Nate of course, though that was standing the whole time. Miller is probably a bigger sub threat than Yancy. Cerrone's fought enough guys that there are better grapplers than Yancy in that mix for sure.

Cowboy COULD be done though. If we are actually talking about a shell of his former self, then all his past accomplishments don't matter much. I'm just not ready to write him off as done just yet.
 
Some other lines I'm gonna play:

Trinaldo +3.5 pts at -120. If you don't think Vick stops Trinaldo and that this fight will be close (I do), this is a nice line. I have other Trinaldo action, but the concern is of course there that Vick gets some hometown love in a really close fight. I have this feeling all of us on Trin are gonna end up pissed when Vick gets a split dec win in a fight we think he lost. Guess I'm (sort of) guarding against that scenario with this bet. If Trin wins, well, I'll be happy anyway by winning this one plus my other bets.

Tybura/BB u1.0 at +207. It's a HW fight. BB tends to come out aggressively. It's not hard to envision either him landing one of those monster haymakers early, or getting Tybura down and mashing his face in. It's also easy to envision Tybura hitting Lewis with a counter or a head kick and ending his night quickly. At over 2-1, I think there's some value here.

Burkman NSC +310 and/or Not Morono itd -105. Maybe Burkman is just shot. Maybe. But as was mentioned earlier itt, he isn't trying to cut to 155 anymore. And since Morono has been fighting UFC level competition over his last 5 fights, he's finished none of them.
Just wanted to give you props for being right very often lately and especially for having insight that makes a lot of sense to me. I'm basically a rich whale that follows MMA closely and I've made over 6figs last event after going pretty big on some of your plays you were giving very good arguments for. Seeing rockhold get wrecked and making bank after that pretentious cunt (lifeisgoodsthsmh) who claims to be some basketball godlike capper was touting him big time felt really good too. I admire your humility and down to earth capping brother #nohomo
 
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