So I was the one saying I'd played Yancy KO/TKO and Yancy rd 1 as my hedges to my Cerrone ML play. And
@lifeisgood12345 replied that Yancy sub is in play (his argument the same as yours in that if Yancy rocks him he may go for the sub). So I guess maybe your post is directed at me? (Not sure, it's a little confusing) I did acknowledge that's a possibility (Yancy rocking then subbing Cerrone), but is very unlikely to happen. To me, the extra payout for Yancy KO (I got it at +235) vs his itd line ( was +190ish at the time I think) is worth the risk of a Yancy sub. Cerrone has 42 pro fights, and one loss by sub (gulliotine by Bendo in 2010).
Yancy is tough, but he hasn't faced anyone at Cerrone's level yet has he? And if Yancy gets rocked (which seems to happen often, although he recovers well), Cerrone is actually a lot better at transitioning from hurting someone to locking up a sub. I would say Cerrone sub is far more likely than Yancy sub (which odds agree with, +440 vs +900).
I do agree that if Yancy really hurts Cowboy he's likely to finish. That's one thing about Cerrone, he hasn't shown (esp lately) the ability to recover well after being hurt. Historically in his career it has taken a lot to actually hurt him in the first place, but he's not a guy who's recovered well once he is hurt.