UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

[Slohog]

Havn't followed MMA too closely in a bit, and I love me some Tybura, but isn't he a bit smaller then Beast?

Also he looked fairly bad against Arlovski and has already lost to some big dude without much skills (although Johnsson is a very different match up). I think he's probably better but it's not like he's the 2nd coming of Prime Fedor like some people thought back in the day.

 

[vkram]

Havn't followed MMA too closely in a bit, and I love me some Tybura, but isn't he a bit smaller then Beast?

Also he looked fairly bad against Arlovski and has already lost to some big dude without much skills (although Johnsson is a very different match up). I think he's probably better but it's not like he's the 2nd coming of Prime Fedor like some people thought back in the day.

Yeah he is a bit smaller but he is a more technical striker with a solid ground game. I think he can outstrike Lewis to a decision. He got out-grinded by Johnson and out-techniqued by Werdum but Lewis is more of a banger.

 

[piglord]

i thought tybura looked atrocious against werdum. looked like a fan happy to be in there with his idol. i may take a shot on lewis.

 

[raketmannen]

Lewis won the Shamil and Browne fights from losing positions, and he's had the back issues. I can't really put any confidence into him.

I know, neither do I, but there's a middleground between being confident in someone and them being a +400 underdog

 

[michi972]

One fight ago, I would go blind on Cowboy, now...

 

[Wiktoruspro]

One fight ago, I would go blind on Cowboy, now...

Its dog or pass imo

 

[Oblivian]

+Yancy arguments are sounding very similar to the +Cote arguments from a while back.

Ding ding ding. I was very surprised so many people liked Cote in that fight and I am looking at this one very similarly. Yancy has never looked that good honestly. He's looked tough as hell, but he always takes some hits. Cowboy has supposedly been "on the decline" since RDA finished him. We then saw him dominate Cowboy Oliveira, dominate Cote, and dominate Story. He's been on a skid, but against insanely tough matchups. Medeiros has been scraping by against guys that Cowboy would dominate.

 

[sonhow]

Ding ding ding. I was very surprised so many people liked Cote in that fight and I am looking at this one very similarly. Yancy has never looked that good honestly. He's looked tough as hell, but he always takes some hits. Cowboy has supposedly been "on the decline" since RDA finished him. We then saw him dominate Cowboy Oliveira, dominate Cote, and dominate Story. He's been on a skid, but against insanely tough matchups. Medeiros has been scraping by against guys that Cowboy would dominate.

I'd love to get Cowboy as a dog in a fight like this. We have no idea how good Till (potentially) is but I think he would smash Yancy pretty easily. Also just a fight ago Cerrone won like 12 minutes vs Lawler in their 15 minute fight.

 

[EzFlyer]

I’m pretty big on yancy.

Two fighters going in different directions

Cowboy looked like a little hoe in that till fight.

That's what is keeping me off of cowboy here. Man idk.

 

[iGnP]

Ding ding ding. I was very surprised so many people liked Cote in that fight and I am looking at this one very similarly. Yancy has never looked that good honestly. He's looked tough as hell, but he always takes some hits. Cowboy has supposedly been "on the decline" since RDA finished him. We then saw him dominate Cowboy Oliveira, dominate Cote, and dominate Story. He's been on a skid, but against insanely tough matchups. Medeiros has been scraping by against guys that Cowboy would dominate.

Cowboy is a nightmare match up for Cote and Story. I can't really explain his dominance of Oliviera, though. Not concerned about his durability here if he were to stand for extended periods against Yancy?

 

[ill800]

I’ve always been a cowboy fan but the guy is a proven flake

He loves to party. Doesn’t watch tape. Fights for a check. And he’s 34 and has a ton of wear on his tires. He lost all three of his fights last year, two by stoppage

I’m done backing him after the till fight. Too many red flags. Has flaked too many times

 

[Oblivian]

Cowboy is a nightmare match up for Cote and Story. I can't really explain his dominance of Oliviera, though. Not concerned about his durability here if he were to stand for extended periods against Yancy?

Not concerned when he's just a slight favorite. This forum was surely singing a different tune on the matchup with Cote. Not many of us bet Cowboy and a lot of people felt strongly about betting Cote.

I can argue that Cowboy is a nightmare matchup for Yancy. Is Cowboy one that generally lets someone off the hook when they are hurt? Not at all. He'd have likely had Yancy finished in the matchups where Yancy came back. Cowboy struggles against guys that come out strong quickly. Yancy comes out aggressive, but while also getting clobbered.

 

[chemmy]

I’ve always been a cowboy fan but the guy is a proven flake

He loves to party. Doesn’t watch tape. Fights for a check. And he’s 34 and has a ton of tread on his tires. He lost all three of his fights last year, two by stoppage

I’m done backing him after the till fight. Too many red flags. Has flaked too many times

I think you got your tire analogy backwards.

 

[ill800]

I think you got your tire analogy backwards.

Lol

Fixed

 

[iGnP]

Not concerned when he's just a slight favorite. This forum was surely singing a different tune on the matchup with Cote. Not many of us bet Cowboy and a lot of people felt strongly about betting Cote.

I can argue that Cowboy is a nightmare matchup for Yancy. Is Cowboy one that generally lets someone off the hook when they are hurt? Not at all. He'd have likely had Yancy finished in the matchups where Yancy came back. Cowboy struggles against guys that come out strong quickly. Yancy comes out aggressive, but while also getting clobbered.

Yeah, i was actually w you on Cowboy against Cote. Hm, I have a small bet on Yancy so I wont regret losing it, but if you have to set a line for this fight, how much more of a favorite do you think Cowboy should be?

 

[Oblivian]

Yeah, i was actually w you on Cowboy against Cote. Hm, I have a small bet on Yancy so I wont regret losing it, but if you have to set a line for this fight, how much more of a favorite do you think Cowboy should be?

Probably more around the -200 range, maybe even higher. I think he's just as likely (if not more) to KO Yancy, but definitely more likely to snag a sub. Highly unlikely that this sees the scorecards.

 

[Agent Mulder]

For sure getting flashbacks from Cote/Cowboy and im not doing the same misstake again. I was on Cote and that was my worst bet of all time in hindsight.

 

[piglord]

man i can't believe they keep giving burkman fights.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/2/7/16983782/josh-burkman-meets-alex-morono-at-ufc-austin

interesting this is pretty short notice as morono's gas tank is a bit suspect.

 

[michi972]

I was heavy on Cowboy against Cote, now it's pretty hard to bet it.Cowboy is regressing while Yancy is progressing.Has Cowboy any motivation now, 2 knockouts in one year, actually 3(Masvidal knocked him out 2 times).Red flags.I hope Cowboy will come back on a victory path, but...

 

[t6p]

I get why people want to fade Cowboy, but I'm not getting this whole narrative about Yancy making all these improvements. What are we basing this on? Looking at his last 5 fights:

1) Makdessi- most scored the fight for Makdessi and if not for the knockdown at the end of the third, Makdessi certainly would have won
2) Trinaldo- Yancy had his moments, but was largely dominated (nearly stopped) by a Trinaldo who gassed pretty badly in the fight
3) Spencer- borderline not a UFC-level fighter
4) Silva- after seeing his fight against Mein, it's clear that Silva is completely shot, as is his chin. Fight was very competitive until the questionable stoppage
5) Oliveira- the best win of Yancy's career. But BC relies on athleticism more than technique and an absolute war where again, Yancy was nearly stopped in the first round

Without getting into too much MMA math, look at the common opponents there. Cerrone destroyed both Makdessi and Brazilian Cowboy, while Yancy struggled with both. Also, as Sham mentioned earlier in the thread, Yancy is only a few months removed from taking life changing type of damage. Not to mention the guys Cerrone has lost to on his losing streak would run through Yancy as well.

I think Cerrone is going to stop Yancy and look good doing it. If not, maybe he really is done. Personally, I'm very happy with the +100 I got on him here though.