UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

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like most of vick's opponents, i think trinaldo is going to struggle with the range. i'm not factoring trinaldo's age in as he shows no sign of fading but stylistically it's a difficult fight. that being said, vick does leave himself open and trinaldo can crack.

i think vick wins but not in love with the price.
 
Starting to think Yancy is the play vs Cowboy.

Till + Mas are more technical and better fighters overall than Yancy, but they both cracked Cowboy pretty easily without typically being KO guys. Yancy hits harder than either and he has nice chokes to finish stunned opponents.

After all of the mileage, damage, and drinking/partying Cowboy's chin isn't getting any better at age 34. The only concern is Yancy's defense is garbage, but Cowboy's offense looks like it's fading just as fast as his chin. He has looked like a complete non-threat offensively 3 fights in a row.

Some chance Cowboy has a mini-bounceback and cracks Yancy, but I have a hard time passing on Yancy at underdog odds. And I am not a Yancy fan by any stretch of the imagination.
 
Starting to think Yancy is the play vs Cowboy.

Till + Mas are more technical and better fighters overall than Yancy, but they both cracked Cowboy pretty easily without typically being KO guys. Yancy hits harder than either and he has nice chokes to finish stunned opponents.

After all of the mileage, damage, and drinking/partying Cowboy's chin isn't getting any better at age 34. The only concern is Yancy's defense is garbage, but Cowboy's offense looks like it's fading just as fast as his chin. He has looked like a complete non-threat offensively 3 fights in a row.

Some chance Cowboy has a mini-bounceback and cracks Yancy, but I have a hard time passing on Yancy at underdog odds. And I am not a Yancy fan by any stretch of the imagination.

Not sure about writing off Cowboy's offence. I bet on Mas and up until the kd I had Cowboy winning r1. He also was in control against Robbie last half of r1 and r2. I can't bet Yancy here he is two months removed from an absolute war where his brain got rattled way too many times. I also don't like Cowboy at current odds tho.
 
Yancy always relies on his durability/resilience. I don't think that Cerrone will gas out trying to finish him
 
Fransisco Trindaldo getting some serious disrespect at +190...am I underestimating Vick or what?

Thought the exact same thing, I capped this fight before lines came out and peg Trin as a -150 to -175 fav (age is obviously a concern, however). Smashed the opener at +175 and was shocked to find it come back up and settle at +190, added more. Vick struggles with Southpaws and pressure, Nick Hein dropped him twice, Dariush killed him, Matthews (pressure not SP) was having a lot of success striking, specifically when the threw his left hand. Vick's right hand stays very low while his chin stays high and he lingers in the pocket. Trin has faster hands than Dariush and Hein and arguably more power, I think he finds that chin unless Vick has fixed that tall man defense.
 
Starting to think Yancy is the play vs Cowboy.

Till + Mas are more technical and better fighters overall than Yancy, but they both cracked Cowboy pretty easily without typically being KO guys. Yancy hits harder than either and he has nice chokes to finish stunned opponents.

After all of the mileage, damage, and drinking/partying Cowboy's chin isn't getting any better at age 34. The only concern is Yancy's defense is garbage, but Cowboy's offense looks like it's fading just as fast as his chin. He has looked like a complete non-threat offensively 3 fights in a row.

Some chance Cowboy has a mini-bounceback and cracks Yancy, but I have a hard time passing on Yancy at underdog odds. And I am not a Yancy fan by any stretch of the imagination.

There is absolutely 0 chance that Yancy hits harder than Till and Mas can crack too. Not saying Yancy doesn't have power, but that statement is false. You know who also hits a hell of a lot harder than Yancy? Robbie Lawler, whom Cerrone took 3 and won the majority of the striking exchanges. Yancy getting overrated for BC brawl and Cerrone getting underrated for murderers row IMO.
 
I'm on Trinaldo too, but Vick is good at taking my money.
 
Imo Vick will takeit, but expected him at higher odds
 
Guys leaning Vick, thoughts on why you think he takes it? Assuming you like him to pick Trinaldo apart at range, maybe find a KO or choke?

Trin seems to only struggle with strong grapplers, I think he can take Vick down here if he wants and he has nasty GnP. Just seems to me Trin has more options and is just as likely, if not more likely, to finish (Trin never been KO'd and is a good grappler himself).
 
Not sure about writing off Cowboy's offence. I bet on Mas and up until the kd I had Cowboy winning r1. He also was in control against Robbie last half of r1 and r2. I can't bet Yancy here he is two months removed from an absolute war where his brain got rattled way too many times. I also don't like Cowboy at current odds tho.

I'm definitely not writing it off, but just re-watching that fight he never looked like an actual threat to hurt Mas. And I mean...29/55 vs 10/38 on headstrikes is a pretty clear advantage for Mas.

Just think it's worth a lil risk at underdog odds. Still don't trust Yancy to bet a ton regardless
 
There is absolutely 0 chance that Yancy hits harder than Till and Mas can crack too. Not saying Yancy doesn't have power, but that statement is false. You know who also hits a hell of a lot harder than Yancy? Robbie Lawler, whom Cerrone took 3 and won the majority of the striking exchanges. Yancy getting overrated for BC brawl and Cerrone getting underrated for murderers row IMO.

Mas has 3 KO's in his last 20 fights. One was when Ellenberger got his toe stuck underneath the fence, one was Mutante's awful chin, and the third was against Cerrone. So take away the Ellenberger thing, and Yancy has as many KO's in his last 2 fights as Mas in his last 20.

Lawler is washed up too. He looked awful vs RDA, and his only KO in the past 3.5 years is round 5 against Rory after lots of cumulative punching.

I've seen people cite that fight as evidence that Lawler isn't toast and evidence that Cerrone isn't toast. But what if they are both washed up? Watch it again, it's really not a good fight as neither ever posed serious danger to the other and you have bizarre stuff like Robbie taking all of round 2 off.
 
Hard to say since both Lawler and Cerrone have been fighting absolute monsters. Lawler hasn't had an easy fight since 2013 when he KO'd Bobby Voelker silly. Hard to rack up KO's against the top 10 of the WW division. Same with Cerrone, last time he fought guys on Yancy's level he finished them all in succession: Matt Brown, Rick Story, Cote, BC.

Kinda going down a rabbit hole, but you can't just look at KO % to determine how hard someone hits. Mas can clearly crack, even when he wasn't KO'ing guys he was regularily hurting guys, Lawler too. RDA can make almost anyone look bad fwiw.
 
I'm definitely not writing it off, but just re-watching that fight he never looked like an actual threat to hurt Mas. And I mean...29/55 vs 10/38 on headstrikes is a pretty clear advantage for Mas.

Just think it's worth a lil risk at underdog odds. Still don't trust Yancy to bet a ton regardless

I said up until the kd cowboy was winning you cant then include head strikes post kd!! And you arent including kicks to head or body from cowboy either. I havent rewatched but im pretty sure there were a lot. Like i said i had money on mas and he was defo losing r1 in my book until the kd.
 
Guys leaning Vick, thoughts on why you think he takes it? Assuming you like him to pick Trinaldo apart at range, maybe find a KO or choke?

Trin seems to only struggle with strong grapplers, I think he can take Vick down here if he wants and he has nasty GnP. Just seems to me Trin has more options and is just as likely, if not more likely, to finish (Trin never been KO'd and is a good grappler himself).
I am not even sure that Vick can pick Trinaldo apart at range, the brazilian has outstriked Medeiros and Lee whos reach advantage against him was also significant. And even when Trinaldo is losing the standup battle he can find way to win this, like he did with Felder.
This price is just not accurate and i think we have to take advantage of this mistake.
3u Trinaldo ML @2.87 (maybe will close some when the fight is near)
 
My initial thought on Vick vs Trinaldo was that it would open close to a pick em, with Vick maybe a very small favorite coming off what was the best performance of his career against Duffy. After looking into it some more, I still feel the same way. I can't see any justification for Vick being a -230 favorite here.

Like @Stunna77 already mentioned, Vick has shown himself to be vulnerable against southpaws, getting dropped twice in the first round against both Hein and Dariush, the only two southpaws he's faced. Vick's defense isn't great, he often leaves himself open for counters, which could be a major issue for him in this fight. Trinaldo throws a hard left hand counter and Vick's chin is a bit of a question mark. Also, the last time that Vick stepped up to this level of competition, it went very badly for him. Another concern for me is that Vick at times has been a slow starter, where as Trin typically comes out strong.

All that said, I can't be overly confident in Trinaldo either. I think we're starting to see improvements from fight to fight with Vick. He's become more effective at utilizing his reach, particularly using his jab. I think it's possible that this could wear on Trinaldo as the fight moves along, as it did with Duffy. Which brings me to my main concern here, which is Trin's gas tank. As he fatigues he starts to hold his hands lower and lower and his strikes become much more telegraphed. But, even when he's visibly gassed, his footwork does remain pretty solid and he still seems to carry a lot of his power. Another worry is that Trin has a tendency to shoot when he gets hurt and Vick is dangerous at locking up chokes with those long arms. Lastly, and this might be stupid, but eye pokes could be an issue here. I don't remember all the exact fights off the top of my head, but Vick constantly sticks his fingers straight out and has eye poked a high percentage of his opponents. It happened twice in the first round against Dariush.

There's going to be a few props that I'll be looking for but as of now I have 2u Trinaldo at +180 in what I see as close to a coin flip. I also expect Trinaldo to have a good first round, maybe even get a finish, so I'll be watching live bet closely if he seems to slowing down.
 
I said up until the kd cowboy was winning you cant then include head strikes post kd!! And you arent including kicks to head or body from cowboy either. I havent rewatched but im pretty sure there were a lot. Like i said i had money on mas and he was defo losing r1 in my book until the kd.

There were no headstrikes post-KD. He knocked him down and then round ended
 
My initial thought on Vick vs Trinaldo was that it would open close to a pick em, with Vick maybe a very small favorite coming off what was the best performance of his career against Duffy. After looking into it some more, I still feel the same way. I can't see any justification for Vick being a -230 favorite here.

Like @Stunna77 already mentioned, Vick has shown himself to be vulnerable against southpaws, getting dropped twice in the first round against both Hein and Dariush, the only two southpaws he's faced. Vick's defense isn't great, he often leaves himself open for counters, which could be a major issue for him in this fight. Trinaldo throws a hard left hand counter and Vick's chin is a bit of a question mark. Also, the last time that Vick stepped up to this level of competition, it went very badly for him. Another concern for me is that Vick at times has been a slow starter, where as Trin typically comes out strong.

All that said, I can't be overly confident in Trinaldo either. I think we're starting to see improvements from fight to fight with Vick. He's become more effective at utilizing his reach, particularly using his jab. I think it's possible that this could wear on Trinaldo as the fight moves along, as it did with Duffy. Which brings me to my main concern here, which is Trin's gas tank. As he fatigues he starts to hold his hands lower and lower and his strikes become much more telegraphed. But, even when he's visibly gassed, his footwork does remain pretty solid and he still seems to carry a lot of his power. Another worry is that Trin has a tendency to shoot when he gets hurt and Vick is dangerous at locking up chokes with those long arms. Lastly, and this might be stupid, but eye pokes could be an issue here. I don't remember all the exact fights off the top of my head, but Vick constantly sticks his fingers straight out and has eye poked a high percentage of his opponents. It happened twice in the first round against Dariush.

There's going to be a few props that I'll be looking for but as of now I have 2u Trinaldo at +180 in what I see as close to a coin flip. I also expect Trinaldo to have a good first round, maybe even get a finish, so I'll be watching live bet closely if he seems to slowing down.
Absolutely agree with you, just 2 things:
Trinaldo said in one of the interviews before fighting Miller that he has take a lesson from his loss to Lee and he will never hold his hands down again.
And second, i think Vick`s striking offence is def improving but his striking defence is getting worse (correct me if i am wrong).
 
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