UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

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  1. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    I for sure think Yancy has equal if not more power in his hands than Masvidal, maybe not the same snap to it though
     
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  2. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Outside of Cowboy fight, Mas has 4 knockdowns in his last 18 fights. Yancy has 5 knockdowns in his last 3 fights.

    I can't buy any narrative that Mas hits harder than Yancy. He has better technique, better striking defense, and is better overall. But he doesn't hit harder.

    Lawler closed +100 vs RDA and Cerrone was a fave vs Till, and both looked +500. This is a sign that their reputations both exceed their current fighting ability.

    I'd buy your murderer's row theory if Cerrone showed more offense in any of his past 3 fights and was losing close battles. But Lawler hasn't dominated in forever and he looked completely hopeless vs Mas + Till. Bojan Velickovic arguably put up a better fight against Till than Cowboy did.

    Hard to believe that somebody who was so dominant for so long has already declined this much, but he loves to drink/party, has a ton of mileage, doesn't seem to be the most intelligent fighter...maybe the age cliff came early for him.

    I say this all as somebody who was ITCHING to bet against Yancy after his BC win. I think both fighters are going to land, but Yancy's strikes are going to hurt more and he is much more likely to finish. IMO odds should be flipped with Yancy being -145
     
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  3. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Interesting, re: Trin holding his hands low. Old habits might die hard on a 40 year old guy though, especially if/when he does slow down. I'd have to go back and watch, but I think I did notice him keep them up against Miller.

    I'm not sure that it's gotten worse, honestly. It's always been pretty bad IMO.
     
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  4. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm adding 0.5u to Trinaldo decision at +420. I think it's a bit more likely than him finishing and the price is better.
     
  5. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Vick eye pokes almost every opponent to the point where the ref should warn him before the fight starts and deduct a point for a blatant poke.
     
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  6. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    I should have had a comma in my post "no way he hits harder than Till, and Mas can crack too."
     
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  7. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Yancy much more likely to finish? Are you completetly discouting Cowboy;s ability to take this to the mat where he will run circles around Yancy?
     
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  8. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Is there any evidence that Cerrone will run circles on the mat? Yancy is a BJJ black belt, and my understanding was the only reason he never uses it is bc he doesn't have the wrestling to take the fight to the ground.

    Edit-- nvm, can't find any evidence that he is a black belt dunno why I thought that. But he has some nice chokes and escaped from Brazilian Cowboy taking his back, doesn't seem like his jiu jitsu is bad by any stretch and Cowboy may have declined like the rest of his game.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2018
  9. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Yancy isn’t a bad grappler in his own right.
     
  10. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    where/when did you hear this?
     
  11. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    No, but Cerrone is on a different level IMO. I feel pretty confident in saying that Yancy would much prefer to keep this fight standing. He definitely doesn't want Cerrone on top of him.
     
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  12. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    If Cowboy's odds go down a bit, ill prob switch sides from my small Yancy bet
     
  13. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Remember what Cerrone did to BC on the mat?
     
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  14. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Vick is a massive lightweight. Massive. It’s almost not fair. And he uses his reach well. He can control range and has a good jab.,

    That being sad we know he’s a flawed fighter. The naked kicks would get him knocked out at welterweight. I can see Trinaldo coming over the top with a big left after vick leg kicks.

    I can’t pass +175 on Trinaldo.
     
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  15. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Yeah but that was 2 years ago and Cerrone seems to have seriously declined while BC is improving. IMO a rematch would look vastly different.

    I do agree that the ground game opens up a possible path to victory for Cerrone, and is a point in his favor. But I don't think it's anywhere near certain that he dominates Yancy on the ground or that he is even able to take the fight there.

    I would summarize my argument to this

    --Prime Cerrone would dominate Yancy in his prime, but at this point he has been KO'd early by so many guys who don't rack up KO's (Mas, Till, RDA) that you can't make him a huge fave vs anybody with pop. Kinda like Rockhold.

    --His offense looked dreadful vs Mas + Till prior to the KO. It's not like he just got caught-- he looked bad leading up to it.

    --At this point the only recent fight he has to hang his hat on is his decision vs Lawler, who hadn't fought well since his Rory fight 2 years prior. And Cerrone didn't even win, he just didn't get dominated.

    So to some extent we are guessing how much he has declined...if he has only declined a little and just has a bad chin, then he still should be -200 tops. And if the age cliff came early for him due to excessive partying and tons of mileage + damage taken, he may perform like a +350 dog.

    Again, being cautious bc I am aware of the massive holes in Yancy's game, and I'm not certain that Cowboy is done...but just seems like there is much more wiggle room for Yancy to be massively +EV at +130 than vice versa.
     
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  16. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    I think that Cerrone is clearly better than Yancy at every aspect of mma.

    The problem is that both guys are hittable and Cerrones ability to take damage might be nearly deteriorated and Medeiros has pop.

    The bet to make, imo, is the fight does not go the distance.
     
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  17. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

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    There is a pattern here that I feel the need to bring up. You often assert things as known fact with no evidence. You even go so far as to blatantly make things up. Even if you're on the right side here, I hope no one listens to you or they do so very carefully. I'm sure you'll spew vitriol but before you do, consider the double meaning of this handy gif:

    [​IMG]
     
  18. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    If Cowboy has declined significantly (not saying he has, but IF he has), his grappling isn't really the place that it will show.

    He's just a better grappler than Yancy, period.
     
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  19. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Why the fuck would I want people to listen to me lol. If ppl listen to me I get worse odds.

    The day you guys start listening to me is the day I stop posting here.
     
  20. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Yes this is a fair point and throws a wrench to any Yancy bet.

    But I do think athleticism is fairly important for wrestling and scrambling for position. Even if his BJJ technique is better than Yancy, I doubt he is dominant as he was on the mat at peak athleticism.
     
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