UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin | Page 7

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    10,032
    Likes Received:
    4,381
    There's no evidence to show Cowboy has regressed athletically. He cant take a punch as well and he has problems pulling the trigger. Those dont really coincide with athletic ability. 34 is only a few years out of athletic prime, anyway
     
    #121
    Stunna77, t6p and lifeisgood12345 like this.
  2. mkess101 Title incoming...

    mkess101
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2007
    Messages:
    19,869
    Likes Received:
    5,593
    I was gonna reply but no point, this is basically exactly what I was going to say. He's 34, not 44. I think there's enough anecdotal evidence to suggest repeated head trauma leads to less durability so that is a real concern for someone with as many fights as Cowboy. But acting like he's going to be noticeably less explosive or athletic than he was at 30 or 32 is beyond a reach.
     
    #122
    Stunna77 and lifeisgood12345 like this.
  3. lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

    lifeisgood12345
    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2017
    Messages:
    709
    Likes Received:
    447
    My main point re: declined athleticism is that he had poor striking stats vs Mas and Till. Did he ever struggle to land in his prime?

    Different people have different aging curves. Somebody like Cowboy who openly loves to party and fights a ton and has had a zillion weight cuts may have a harsher age curve than other people who may be more genetically blessed and/or take better care of their body.

    Granted, I’m not certain that he’s toast. I bet him against Till bc it didn’t make sense that he should have declined THAT much at 34. But man did it look like he had zero chance of hurting Till that fight.
     
    #123
  4. mkess101 Title incoming...

    mkess101
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2007
    Messages:
    19,869
    Likes Received:
    5,593
    Define "his prime".

    He landed a lot of leg kicks on Nate, but couldn't pull the trigger with his hands and Nate outboxed him easily. He couldn't land on RDA at all (for as long as that fight lasted). Even in his fight with Jim Miller he struggled to find his range early and was outstruck by Miller in rd 1.

    Cowboy is a slow starter. He never got going vs Mas as I think he was stopped early in rd 2 iirc. And Till blitzed him very early obviously. This most likely is just part of his M.O. as opposed to some steep downhill decline in his reflexes. Am I absolutely SURE this is the case? Of course not. But the two stoppage losses aren't some crazy anomaly vis a vis the rest of Cowboy's career. He's struggled early against other very good fighters.
     
    #124
    Stunna77 and TheOneTrueKing like this.
  5. mposhtkouhi Yellow Belt

    mposhtkouhi
    Joined:
    May 28, 2016
    Messages:
    176
    Likes Received:
    39
    Fights I like and how I see them ending. I will post my bets once all the odds are up lost money last 2 events time for a turnaround!!!!!

    WIlliams-decision
    Morono-Decision
    Davis-Decision
    Moras-Decision
    Joby Sanchez-Decision
    Neal-Ko2
    Gordon-Decision
    Northcutt-Decision
    Alves-Decision
    Lewis-ko1
    Medieros-Ko3

    Im also excited to see prop bets for 0 subs and 8 decisions if its over+500 ill bet it
     
    #125
    vkram likes this.
  6. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,794
    Likes Received:
    16,833
    Location:
    philly
    hate sunday cards so much :(
     
    #126
  7. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,794
    Likes Received:
    16,833
    Location:
    philly
    man feels like all of trinaldo's fights are in brazil.. and they love him there.. this is in vick's backyard...
     
    #127
    Card likes this.
  8. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,794
    Likes Received:
    16,833
    Location:
    philly
    took that, too, for 0.13u *sigh*
     
    #128
    t6p likes this.
  9. SalvadorAllende Paper belt

    SalvadorAllende
    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2013
    Messages:
    12,398
    Likes Received:
    7,413
    Location:
    Platinum cotton fields
    You could say that Vick is entering his prime while Trinaldo is going to be affected by father time anytime soon.



    I also like Tybura here. Lewis has been talking about retirement a lot and if it is true what he said his wife convinced him to keep fighting (probably because he has a small window to make money off fighting).
    Marcin is disciplined enough to not get caught into a slugfest against the heavy handed brawler. He should also have a considerable speed advantage.
     
    #129
    greenmouse likes this.
  10. mkess101 Title incoming...

    mkess101
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2007
    Messages:
    19,869
    Likes Received:
    5,593
    Like Tybura too. I will most likely hedge with Lewis rd 1. You make a good point about Tybura being unwilling to get suckered into a slugfest. And I think Lewis (despite some good comeback wins) has a crap gas tank. It doesn't stop him from still trying, but he slows down a LOT.
     
    #130
    greenmouse likes this.
  11. lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

    lifeisgood12345
    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2017
    Messages:
    709
    Likes Received:
    447
    I suppose he never really dominated striking from a points perspective. Just re-watched the Makdessi fight-- the fight was fairly even until he caught him with the head kick. Seems that peak Cerrone just always found a way to land the leg kick KO or end it on the ground.

    But it still feels like he lost a bit of pop since then. Even comparing the Story fight to the Lawler fight, I just don't think his reflexes are the same. Against Story he was sharp and quick, and whenever Lawler applied pressure he had no answer. Granted Lawler pressure is > anything Story does, but when Lawler took all of round 2 off for rest and Cerrone had his shot to tee off it did seem like his combinations were a bit less explosive than they were against Story.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but the Lawler fight was by far his best in his past 3, and there was still not much to like from that performance.

    The guy has fought a million times while missing half of his intestines and stomach...that's gotta make it tough to age gracefully. And maybe he was never that special outside on his feet outside of that explosive leg kick anyway.
     
    #131
  12. lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

    lifeisgood12345
    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2017
    Messages:
    709
    Likes Received:
    447
    Is anybody else here even thinking of betting Yancy?

    Kinda hoping if I wait it out I'll get Yancy +150
     
    #132
  13. northsofia Orange Belt

    northsofia
    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2016
    Messages:
    377
    Likes Received:
    417
    Location:
    Sofia
    I am not sure that he will go to +150. Cerrone has 3 straight losses and i think this is a huge factor that will stop a lot people betting him.
     
    #133
    lifeisgood12345 likes this.
  14. mkess101 Title incoming...

    mkess101
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2007
    Messages:
    19,869
    Likes Received:
    5,593
    It's hard to say.

    I'm not saying it should be completely ignored, but it's dicey when you look at a couple losses against top tier fighters and immediately assume a guy has hit his wall. (Not saying you are claiming that's for sure the case here, but if it is affecting your bet a lot I think that's a mistake).

    Cowboy is good at landing leg kicks that have sting, then going high with the kick when the opponent starts to defend low and leave their head exposed. His hands are okay, he has some pop but he's not a devastating power puncher. And he almost always starts slowly so if you can get to him early before he gets going you have a good shot.

    One thing Cowboy does maybe better than anyone in the sport is that when he hurts guys he's brilliant at taking that opportunity to lock in a sub. He transitions from striking to getting dominant position and locking up the sub as well as anyone. Yancy has shown he can be rocked, even if his recovery has been very good. If Cowboy rocks him, seeing him use the opportunity to take it to the mat from there and lock up the sub wouldn't surprise me at all.
     
    #134
    Stunna77 and lifeisgood12345 like this.
  15. EckY *****

    EckY
    Joined:
    May 17, 2005
    Messages:
    5,422
    Likes Received:
    9
    At a glance not feeling too much on this card. The bottom half is filled with a lot of guys looking to be cut battling each other.

    Right now Cowboy and Tybura look interesting, fading Black Beast after all his back problems and retirement talk, Tybura is generally pretty consistent at what he does, unless Black Beast catches him early he likely loses a decision.

    Medeiros is tough but I feel Cowboy is just better technically in all areas, the question is where is Cowboy a coming off 3 losses in a row, two by stoppage. He could be on the downswing of his career, this fight will say a lot about that, but I am going to side with Cowboy here, he is a lot better than the Brazilian Cowboy.
     
    #135
  16. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2014
    Messages:
    4,335
    Likes Received:
    1,773
    I think Tybura should have this. Probably should be around -200, Lewis keeps talking about retirement and back injuries but never actually takes significant time off. Tybura is one of the more technical strikers outside the top 5 and should be able to pick Lewis apart. He just needs to avoid the big shot and getting taken down.
     
    #136
  17. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2014
    Messages:
    4,335
    Likes Received:
    1,773
    Odds are out on Sportsbook.
     
    #137
    t6p likes this.
  18. CheeseAndHoneyMustard White Belt

    CheeseAndHoneyMustard
    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2018
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    54
    Horrible card for betting. Sportsbook opened lines accurately. Hopefully Morono doesn't balloon up to crazy odds. I'd like to play him -3.5 or itd based on Burkman looking incredibly shot in recent fights
     
    #138
  19. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    2,461
    Likes Received:
    1,320
    Yea I noticed. From a quick glance through they looked pretty sharp
     
    #139
    rille31 likes this.
  20. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    TheOneTrueKing
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    657
    Likes Received:
    345
    i really like the lines. lots in the range i wanted
     
    #140
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "fd5733925866a04e50edd70f38dfaa35"
monitoring_string = "603ac9fff68f23709f2a42bf5e29272b"