UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

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  1. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    There's no evidence to show Cowboy has regressed athletically. He cant take a punch as well and he has problems pulling the trigger. Those dont really coincide with athletic ability. 34 is only a few years out of athletic prime, anyway
     
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  2. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I was gonna reply but no point, this is basically exactly what I was going to say. He's 34, not 44. I think there's enough anecdotal evidence to suggest repeated head trauma leads to less durability so that is a real concern for someone with as many fights as Cowboy. But acting like he's going to be noticeably less explosive or athletic than he was at 30 or 32 is beyond a reach.
     
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  3. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    My main point re: declined athleticism is that he had poor striking stats vs Mas and Till. Did he ever struggle to land in his prime?

    Different people have different aging curves. Somebody like Cowboy who openly loves to party and fights a ton and has had a zillion weight cuts may have a harsher age curve than other people who may be more genetically blessed and/or take better care of their body.

    Granted, I’m not certain that he’s toast. I bet him against Till bc it didn’t make sense that he should have declined THAT much at 34. But man did it look like he had zero chance of hurting Till that fight.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Define "his prime".

    He landed a lot of leg kicks on Nate, but couldn't pull the trigger with his hands and Nate outboxed him easily. He couldn't land on RDA at all (for as long as that fight lasted). Even in his fight with Jim Miller he struggled to find his range early and was outstruck by Miller in rd 1.

    Cowboy is a slow starter. He never got going vs Mas as I think he was stopped early in rd 2 iirc. And Till blitzed him very early obviously. This most likely is just part of his M.O. as opposed to some steep downhill decline in his reflexes. Am I absolutely SURE this is the case? Of course not. But the two stoppage losses aren't some crazy anomaly vis a vis the rest of Cowboy's career. He's struggled early against other very good fighters.
     
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  5. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Blue Belt

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    Fights I like and how I see them ending. I will post my bets once all the odds are up lost money last 2 events time for a turnaround!!!!!

    WIlliams-decision
    Morono-Decision
    Davis-Decision
    Moras-Decision
    Joby Sanchez-Decision
    Neal-Ko2
    Gordon-Decision
    Northcutt-Decision
    Alves-Decision
    Lewis-ko1
    Medieros-Ko3

    Im also excited to see prop bets for 0 subs and 8 decisions if its over+500 ill bet it
     
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  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    hate sunday cards so much :(
     
  7. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    man feels like all of trinaldo's fights are in brazil.. and they love him there.. this is in vick's backyard...
     
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  8. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    took that, too, for 0.13u *sigh*
     
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  9. SalvadorAllende

    SalvadorAllende Paper belt

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    You could say that Vick is entering his prime while Trinaldo is going to be affected by father time anytime soon.



    I also like Tybura here. Lewis has been talking about retirement a lot and if it is true what he said his wife convinced him to keep fighting (probably because he has a small window to make money off fighting).
    Marcin is disciplined enough to not get caught into a slugfest against the heavy handed brawler. He should also have a considerable speed advantage.
     
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  10. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Like Tybura too. I will most likely hedge with Lewis rd 1. You make a good point about Tybura being unwilling to get suckered into a slugfest. And I think Lewis (despite some good comeback wins) has a crap gas tank. It doesn't stop him from still trying, but he slows down a LOT.
     
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  11. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    I suppose he never really dominated striking from a points perspective. Just re-watched the Makdessi fight-- the fight was fairly even until he caught him with the head kick. Seems that peak Cerrone just always found a way to land the leg kick KO or end it on the ground.

    But it still feels like he lost a bit of pop since then. Even comparing the Story fight to the Lawler fight, I just don't think his reflexes are the same. Against Story he was sharp and quick, and whenever Lawler applied pressure he had no answer. Granted Lawler pressure is > anything Story does, but when Lawler took all of round 2 off for rest and Cerrone had his shot to tee off it did seem like his combinations were a bit less explosive than they were against Story.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but the Lawler fight was by far his best in his past 3, and there was still not much to like from that performance.

    The guy has fought a million times while missing half of his intestines and stomach...that's gotta make it tough to age gracefully. And maybe he was never that special outside on his feet outside of that explosive leg kick anyway.
     
  12. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Is anybody else here even thinking of betting Yancy?

    Kinda hoping if I wait it out I'll get Yancy +150
     
  13. northsofia

    northsofia Orange Belt

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    I am not sure that he will go to +150. Cerrone has 3 straight losses and i think this is a huge factor that will stop a lot people betting him.
     
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  14. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    It's hard to say.

    I'm not saying it should be completely ignored, but it's dicey when you look at a couple losses against top tier fighters and immediately assume a guy has hit his wall. (Not saying you are claiming that's for sure the case here, but if it is affecting your bet a lot I think that's a mistake).

    Cowboy is good at landing leg kicks that have sting, then going high with the kick when the opponent starts to defend low and leave their head exposed. His hands are okay, he has some pop but he's not a devastating power puncher. And he almost always starts slowly so if you can get to him early before he gets going you have a good shot.

    One thing Cowboy does maybe better than anyone in the sport is that when he hurts guys he's brilliant at taking that opportunity to lock in a sub. He transitions from striking to getting dominant position and locking up the sub as well as anyone. Yancy has shown he can be rocked, even if his recovery has been very good. If Cowboy rocks him, seeing him use the opportunity to take it to the mat from there and lock up the sub wouldn't surprise me at all.
     
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  15. EckY

    EckY *****

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    At a glance not feeling too much on this card. The bottom half is filled with a lot of guys looking to be cut battling each other.

    Right now Cowboy and Tybura look interesting, fading Black Beast after all his back problems and retirement talk, Tybura is generally pretty consistent at what he does, unless Black Beast catches him early he likely loses a decision.

    Medeiros is tough but I feel Cowboy is just better technically in all areas, the question is where is Cowboy a coming off 3 losses in a row, two by stoppage. He could be on the downswing of his career, this fight will say a lot about that, but I am going to side with Cowboy here, he is a lot better than the Brazilian Cowboy.
     
  16. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    I think Tybura should have this. Probably should be around -200, Lewis keeps talking about retirement and back injuries but never actually takes significant time off. Tybura is one of the more technical strikers outside the top 5 and should be able to pick Lewis apart. He just needs to avoid the big shot and getting taken down.
     
  17. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Odds are out on Sportsbook.
     
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  18. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Yea I noticed. From a quick glance through they looked pretty sharp
     
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  19. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    i really like the lines. lots in the range i wanted
     
  20. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Think Joby should be a favourite over Roberto. Roberto seems pretty unathletic for FLW where that is a pretty big requirement.

    Jared Gordon looked great in his first two fights whilst Ferreira is coming off a USADA suspension and hasn't fought for two years.
     
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