UFN 130 - Thompson vs Till - Liverpool

lilbloaty said:
it's gonna cash because gill will sub her, but take the better value and just bet gill itd or sub. molly has no power.
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Hometown fighter, don't be surprised at an early stoppage where Molly is swarming but Gillian isn't really hurt but isn't firing back.
 
lilbloaty said:
lmfao an armbar is the only way she can finish on the ground? no other way? give me a break. you're also overrating molly's get up game based on certain instances where she's stood up from under PURE STRIKERS who are 5ft tall natural strawweights with .500 records, AKA total cans she was given to look good against, and one of them was a split she arguably lost.

calvillo dominated her but she was 20 at the time, she took her down with a nice body lock trip, calvillo was 28 and wrecked shit in the ufc just a year later. gill was a kid. it's been 2 years and she's at ATT, she will improve. molly is nearly 30 and is garbage.

your post makes no sense. r1 armbar or bust? wtf? so she can't just stay on top for 2/3 rounds? weird, weird post.

i'm extremely familiar with mccann, she is horrible. she will get taken down and subbed.
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With the recent line movement, McCann missing weight and you arguing for +2xmoney, I wont get too bold but no I dont thnk Robertson will control her for 2 of 3 rds, not without a body triangle.

I also generously gave her a slight chance at the RNC.
 
Hot Sauce huge pants height edge, liking my +320 more and more!
 
man looking through till's old instagram shots. harbinger of death on the left.

 
Naught2Sixty said:
Idk about huge but I'd call that a SPHA. What say you @turbozed ?
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As was mentioned earlier, Hot Sauce has his shoes on and Elias does not. This one was very 50/50 but, since it's not obvious, I would default to NO SPHA.

I've been slacking on my SPHA analysis the past two cards so thanks for the reminder lol
 
turbozed said:
As was mentioned earlier, Hot Sauce has his shoes on and Elias does not. This one was very 50/50 but, since it's not obvious, I would default to NO SPHA.

I've been slacking on my SPHA analysis the past two cards so thanks for the reminder lol
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Dude, the shoes don't make up even half that difference imo. Stop trying to replace my HOT sauce with WEAK sauce ha ha.
 
What's up with Breese's nipple? That thing is almost tucked under his armpit.
 
How does this always come to this BS... Once again my biggest bet is on a low level womens fight. Thoroughly confused by the Lansberg - Mazany line; took Lansberg at ~1.9 and kept on adding as the line went up.
 
onC said:
How does this always come to this BS... Once again my biggest bet is on a low level womens fight. Thoroughly confused by the Lansberg - Mazany line; took Lansberg at ~1.9 and kept on adding as the line went up.
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I'm riding with you. If Gina somehow outwrestles and (wo)manhandles Lina, I'll be impressed. I just don't see any evidence that it'll happen. Maybe people are putting a lot of stock in the Yanan Wu victory? The follow up question would be: why? Yanan Wu has 9 wins over opponents who have a collective win count of 1. Let that sink in.
 
turbozed said:
I'm riding with you. If Gina somehow outwrestles and (wo)manhandles Lina, I'll be impressed. I just don't see any evidence that it'll happen. Maybe people are putting a lot of stock in the Yanan Wu victory? The follow up question would be: why? Yanan Wu has 9 wins over opponents who have a collective win count of 1. Let that sink in.
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Before Wu, the record for the opponents in Mazany's wins comes to 2-7, with 3 of the 4 being 0-2. Her 3rd win was against an opponent with a pro record of 0-2 and an Amateur record of 0-5-1. Her 4th win was against Katie Hawley, who is 2-1 against straweights with no more than 2 fights each and no wins, all in Alaska. I haven't watched tape and don't have a dog in this fight, but just looking over both the fight records and vague recollections of their previous bouts virtually ensures this will be a shitshow. Even so, and with the perils of wiki capping in mind, its hard to see how taking a small stab at Lansberg at plus money isnt a terrible idea.
 
A few I'm on tonight for what its worth:

Lina
Meatball
Kelly DEC
Taleb DEC
Bermudez SUB
Amirkhani (Large bet)
Allen
Till (everything i win)
 
Tony J said:
Just about to say. Odd to see money on Hot Sauce pouring in. If he can't get the takedown (difficult) early and keep Elias down (more difficult), that's going to be a problem for Trevor. Big gas tank issues. He's like a lesser version of Dan Kelly imo.
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If Elias was -225 I'd consider a play on him. I do favor him. The line is just way too wide imo for a guy who doesn't care about finishing and who never looks that impressive even in his wins.
 
I understand the logic behind wanting to bet Kelly (pressure, grittiness, "fight for your money" etc), but I honestly don't think you could drum up a better gift for Breese. Credit to him for making it this far, but at the end of the day this is likely Kellys last fight, and he is a beaten up 40 year old who looks every bit of it. Lack of speed being the main factor. Not only is Breese a massive individual, he is an extremely skilled technician...he should eat him alive standing.

There is a great +odds bet to be found in this fight, but its definitely not Kelly ML.

1u Breese r1 +350
1u Breese KO +250

Trevor Smith sucks, but Elias is incapable of finishing a fight. Still, his athletic and cardio edge should net him a signature boring victory.

2.5u Theodorou dec -165

Magny-White is a mismatch on Shev-Cachoeira level, easily. White is soooooo bad its not even worth going into all of his weaknesses. For all his faults, Magny is a speedy striker and slick grappler. I expect him to get mount within the first 2 minutes and finish it quickly from there.

2.5u Magny ITD -160


I also like Knight and Robertson for reasons you guys already mentioned..Taleb seems to be an overlooked possibility for a leg.
 
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