UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

I'm pretty much set on who I'm playing for this card. To me, there are a lot of clear sides. Struggling a bit on Garcia/De La Rosa, Holobaugh/Barcelos (leaning Barcelos at +), and Price/Brown.
 
Jury trains at alliance right? I'm sure Darrion Caldwell and Jeremy Stephen's are giving him similar looks to what Money Mendes will give him.
 
Scoggins +145? Holy hell take my money books.
Justin Scoggins is super talented but not the kind of guy you want to trust as a favorite cause he's not consistent and flakes out. But when he's on, I think he's one of the best flyweights in the world. Not mad at that the number on Scoggins, the Russian may be getting too much respect, a lot of variables in this one though.
 
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Justin Scoggins is super talented but not the kind of guy you want to trust as a favorite cause he's not consistent and flakes out. But when he's on, I think he's one of the best flyweights in the world. Not mad at that the on Scoggins, the Russian may be getting too much respect, a lot of variables in this one though.

He is getting too much respect he's beaten no one and hasn't looked spectacular at all. Plus Said is a striker first grappler second and has very little submission threat from the tape i watched.
 
Jury trains at alliance right? I'm sure Darrion Caldwell and Jeremy Stephen's are giving him similar looks to what Money Mendes will give him.

I'm sure Caldwell can help him, but I don't think he's a guy who could mimic Mendes well. Different standup style, different wrestling style, different build, etc.
 
Also think Scoggins is gonna keep getting wider. Russian money doesn't really hit till the last 24 hours.
Yeah I think so as well, I'm waiting till just before the fight before I pull the trigger on Scoggins. I already placed a bet on Elkins though.
 
He is getting too much respect he's beaten no one and hasn't looked spectacular at all. Plus Said is a striker first grappler second and has very little submission threat from the tape i watched.
Yeah I don't know the guys Said is beating but they do have impressive records. He does seem to be more of a striker, very flashy and athletic but he does seem to have some decent wrestling as well. Has shades of Zabit in him which isn't surprising seeing as they are training together in Jersey with Mark Henry.

Said has never fought at 125 before, he's never fought in the US and its his UFC debut. USADA is also another thing but I doubt they are testing him much, always a chance these Russians are on the PEDS.

I think Scoggins is capable of beating just about any flyweight in the world but its all about if he can keep his mental game on point. He was winning his last two fights but then he finds a way to lose. Scoggins is also coming off a 13 month layoff and back injury.

I'm tempted to play Scoggins but also hesitant, not an easy fight to cap either cause you don't know how Scoggins will perform and Said is still a bit of a unknown. But if I had to favor someone I guess it would be Scoggins with the hope that he's going to be on point. Already like so many dogs on this card, might have to add Scoggins as well but we'll see.
 
Kurt holobaugh

-nevada not under usada so when he took iv treatment for
his dana white show was following normal rules till
usada got involved.
-stayed in gym training due to time off while suspended
worked on improvements 9-10 months
-likes the match up against raoni, he has good speed
and quick but its a favoured match up for him will be
the bigger guy in there, skill level is a bit more better
and level of experience and size will be too much for him.
-10 month training camp for this fight....
-has a ji jitsu guy trains with and a stand up striker
and has endless new things being learned.
-weights been fine, wasnt lazy past 9 months and knew
would get his ufc debut once the suspension was done.
-maybe 15 pounds over for now so should be an easy weight
cut.
-raoini wont be able to handle the pressure, wants a r1/r2 ko
via him dropping elbows.
-plans to be a force in the ufc division, wants performance of night






Rick glenn

-working at ufc pi and working with buddy danny
-close to home so super happy with this fight
wife and friend coming to his fight
-needs to be more active is a slow starter
needs to have that kill or be killed attitude (refering
to jury fight loss)
-was trying to get a fight well before but
most fights were booked so had to sit out a bit more.
-says opponent bermudez is a vet and big name, its
a good match up both like to come forward, he dont run away
and its decent for him.
-faber is coaching him and keeping him active, small adjustments
to his game. Lots of up and commers, fighting house
and a massive fitness facility.
-attitude is all high working with TAM team
-training much more with elkins, chad mendes since both on same card
and also with sage.
-145 weight cut is going well, eating healthy and checking
the numbers so will make weight.
-were gonna get in there both and clash by coming forward
so ready to get paid.



Randy brown

-doing ji jitsu at the gracie academy
-not fought since nov 2017, nothing major few things to
sort out with body but hes all fine.
-got the win against gall the grappler so wasnt scared since
his own ground game is excellent.
-also betting on himself against gall fight
-perfect great fight for him against niko price
both come forward and strike, either way he will
come out on top so is excited to showcase himself here.
-training lots of grappling, wrestling and tdd
, gracie and kickboxing academy
-jokes about his weight cut....
-but says weight cut is down to a science and he has a guy
to figure out the numbers so can do it still.
-expect fireworks and where ever it goes will remain
dominant even if he is off his back or on top.




Sage

-moving back to 170 pounds, weight cut for last few
pounds @ 155 was too much. Wants that extra difference
to get more finishes in his fights.
-Mr fabers on top of him always at TAM
-knows zak is pretty big and use to weight in much more
is training all aspects of his game to make sure is prepared
-dad coach and Mr faber watches zak tape to prepare him for.
-Working with TAM is great
-working with some big guys also at tam, guys @ 170 also
worked with chad mendes and darren elkins
-cutting down to 170 is fine, walking at 185 so weight
cut is going to be easy, always eating super clean
but is eating more calories so able to refuel better after training.
-his dad is his coach also so helps him out.




Zak ottaw

-surprised to get sage since hes been @ 155 for a while
and happy to get the fight @ 170, no way zak could make to 155.
-sage not had good success @ 170, but he is young so
as he gets older it will work better.
-has the experience, where ever the fight goes grappling
or striking, there is no area sage can beat him for 15 minutes
-if sage tries to grapple its going to be a quick night for him
so style wise match up very well
-known about the sage fight for ages, was at mma lab with dan hendo
and coach crounch with some cross training.
-training with some guys on the upcoming dana white show
-montel and alton, jonas flack.
-already down under 200 pounds and still 4 weeks out
so has it down to a science, its not an easy cut but does
make it.
-Will be much bigger and stronger then sage



Marion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9DPiKpU-po
-on summer vacation so not teaching for now
-does yoga, cryo and stretches to relax and recover
-happy to get the finish, knew it was 100% going
on the ground, wanted to make a statement that she
can win on the ground to rest of division.
-cat is well rounded, has striking and is MT based and
she has wrestling.
-got the fight since no one else was available, most gals
were already booked or injured and she wanted to remain active
-at a point where she wants to fight for a title now
since thats her main goal
-says holly booked, pena had a baby and its all up in air atm
-cat is similar to herself, ground game both good she has ji jitsu
and wrestling and striking, so matches up well with her.
-got a MT training partner for this one and he has great
ji jitsu also.
-weight cut started when she heard about the fight, says as she
gets older has to be more disciplined with the weight cutting process.
-coach in corner does his wrestling and ji jitsu, and another coach does
her boxing.
-battle betweeen two bad assed moms, will be non stop
both feel will get hands raised.
-idealy a win gets her a shot, makes the most sense
but 100% concentrating on cat.
-use to working during day and training at night
but for now shes loving training when she wants and
spacing out all training sessions.



Justin Scoggins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXlEXbtRVoM
-loves his dog, reduces his stress and anxiety
-blocked all social media, too much conspiracy stuff
and wants to focus on training and fighting.
-does not want that OCD
-had injury back december 2017, spiness fracture
injury, freak incident tripped up over some roots
and landed on his back, was unable to throw a punch even.
And had to wait 8 weeks before he could get to training.
-keeping weight and shape in control much better then before
since use to eat like an animal.
-studied film on said, he is well rounded, hes a good striker, wrestler
and grappler but he does not excel anywhere though.
-loves the match up knows the dudes tough and happy
to perform well for 15 minutes.
-Been hearing Said (opponent), will beat mighty mouse so happy to fight said.
-done S&C for this camp well but focused on mma more.
-learning how to eat properly, no longer killing himself to cut weight
and is cutting water fine and is 143-148 a few weeks out.
-wants to keep it on the feet wants to dance, show hand speed, kicks and
his footwork for this fight.



Eddie wineland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CixMgoDRMEQ
-not fought since last april, had neck surgery
since last july. Does not like taking year lay offs
but gotta get it fixed and sorted.
-fighting with a bad neck and tentative to take shots
since saenz fight.
-done some heavy sparring and confident with his neck
and is able to now mix it up much more.
-after dodson fight, knew he was looking for one punch
and it didnt come, trains with fast guys but dodson
was way faster and hard to train for, no excuses
should have used more pressure and stayed in his face.
-plans on changing faster on the fly
-perez is a striker and called him out and loves it
wants to stand and bang and throw heat so expects a
good stand up fight.
-only a few years left in mma fights, will be 34 in few weeks
but feels in better shape, training smarter and better now.
wants to fight 3-4 years but wants fun fights.
-goes to local gym steve corrals gym, and needs to be closer to family
-has some good up and coming guys, small guys also to mimic perez
-changed diet slightly, higher fats and lower carbs its
working much better is 149,150 and better then his 154 before.
is pleased since last few pounds are harder to come off.
-perez is an mexican boxer (did pro boxing) he will bait
him in and not get stuck into his game will let him come and
land the big shot.



Mark delarosa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Njr0nTJJrE
-wife got her ufc win, so boosted with moral to get the win
-after last ufc debut loss against elliott, knows
ufc is much harder so needs to keep in shape non stop.
-done training with southpaws @ altitude also
focused on pressure and speed for this camp, joe warren, yousef
and lots of other guys.
-Worked with lockheart with weight and food managment
-no easy fight with elias garcia he has good striking and ji jitsu
and now @ 125 and with a full camp hes looking for the
finish in this fight.
-fans will see a new delarosa @ fly, faster and more output



JDS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4ap02TwxV4
-training at ATT camp
-says blagoy is like a bull, he was a hw champ
in 2 different organisations so hes gonna welcome
him to the ufc.
-loves the gym and partners, wants to feel victory
and from his hard work there is nothing like this.
-wasnt good at soccer, started ji jitsu when young
and started mma early in life.
-trained with big nog and little nog early on in career
-ATT is much bigger facility its designed for mma more
and the coaches and fighters that come here is amazing.
-supports the team and they support him
 
Yeah I don't know the guys Said is beating but they do have impressive records. He does seem to be more of a striker, very flashy and athletic but he does seem to have some decent wrestling as well. Has shades of Zabit in him which isn't surprising seeing as they are training together in Jersey with Mark Henry.

Said has never fought at 125 before, he's never fought in the US and its his UFC debut. USADA is also another thing but I doubt they are testing him much, always a chance these Russians are on the PEDS.

I think Scoggins is capable of beating just about any flyweight in the world but its all about if he can keep his mental game on point. He was winning his last two fights but then he finds a way to lose. Scoggins is also coming off a 13 month layoff and back injury.

I'm tempted to play Scoggins but also hesitant, not an easy fight to cap either cause you don't know how Scoggins will perform and Said is still a bit of a unknown. But if I had to favor someone I guess it would be Scoggins with the hope that he's going to be on point. Already like so many dogs on this card, might have to add Scoggins as well but we'll see.

He is beating ok Brazilians who are getting up there in age. Last guy he fought is 21-7 but lost 5 of his last 7 for example. Scoggins slipped against Pedro i'll give him a pass for bad fight iq there. Sasaki he was tooling so bad i think he just got over-confident. I think he'll come in sharpe here against a Russian.
 
He is beating ok Brazilians who are getting up there in age. Last guy he fought is 21-7 but lost 5 of his last 7 for example. Scoggins slipped against Pedro i'll give him a pass for bad fight iq there. Sasaki he was tooling so bad i think he just got over-confident. I think he'll come in sharpe here against a Russian.
Its hard to say what Said's wins really mean, he hasn't fought with a major promotion but he's beating guys with respectable records, even though some of those records are padded.

Scoggins has looked sharp in his last two fights right up until he doesn't. He made one critical error vs Munhoz and tapped. He got put in one compromising position vs Sasaki and tapped. He was the better fighter in both those fights but still found a way to lose, he's a hard guy to trust but it's easier to trust him as a dog rather than a fav.

Said is 5'9" which is huge for a flyweight, he used to fight at 145 as well as 135, I wouldn't be surprised if he misses weight here. Scoggins is a big flyweight himself who has issues making weight.

Like I said before, its a hard fight to gauge, so many variables. I think Said looks really athletic and talented, he's trained at a lot of good gyms, he's got a lot of potential.

Scoggins needs this win badly
 
I'm on Scoggins here, but man, it's hard to give this guy a pass on any of his mistakes. He's made some really bad decisions in a lot of fights. No idea why he was trying to grapple Ortiz most of the fight. Shooting on Moraga? Giving his neck to Munhoz? Not choosing to let Sasaki up? It's hard to make any excuses for him at this point. He's just not good at sticking to where he's best and avoiding where his opponent is best.
 
Tbh that Felder line ended up being accurate. Insane opener is Perry Dec +600.

I think that Elkins'll break +300 before the event, and that Scoggins will break +150 or so. Nurma name's worth a ton, and Russian money floods in in the last 24 hours.

Felder +235 ended up being ACCURATE? You must be fucking trolling. He almost did enough to win that fight with a broken arm ffs.
 
my breakdowns for this card:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/07/11/ufc-fight-night-133-dos-santos-vs-ivanov-betting-predictions/

if you enjoy my writing, it would help me out a tonne if you could place one of your bets for this card at betonline using my link. i get some commission for referring new customers but they are worth signing up for anyway if you like insane openers like felder +230 and suarez -110.
Zingano write up is exactly how I see it after reneay tape. Need to watch cat back and I do t have a side yet. But the bit about top control and being smart to stay there is key and the path is there if she wants it
 
That's it for straight up plays for me so far. Got Elkins small at +240 and +295, brown -110 and Zingano -105. Only one I feel really good about it is Elkins. Still got tape to do on the other chick fights plus Holobaugh, Garcia, Perez fights respectively.
 
That's it for straight up plays for me so far. Got Elkins small at +240 and +295, brown -110 and Zingano -105. Only one I feel really good about it is Elkins. Still got tape to do on the other chick fights plus Holobaugh, Garcia, Perez fights respectively.
I like Elkins. ESPECIALLY at his price right now.


Mendes is at -185 right now too lol.
 
Good things come to those who wait. Took Mendes at -170 and I'm very happy with it. Elkins might become a bigger dog once the parlays really come in.
 
I like Elkins. ESPECIALLY at his price right now.


Mendes is at -185 right now too lol.
The price is very motivating for me on Elkins as well. My only concern really is that Volk might be strong enough to hold Elkins against the fence for long enough but i'm not sure the 'murican judges will reward this much.

Mendes? -185? You smokin' the dope bro? You have no idea what post psoriasis cream/long lay off Mendes is going to look like so I wouldn't trust the dude to deliver my pizza right now let alone fight for my money at -185 lol. Do what you like though. This fight screams pass to me but I'll be the first to congratulate the Jury backers if he wins.
 
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Jury does his best work from top position, hes not the type of guy to run away with the fight on his feet. He has a good right cross and counter right but not much more KO threats to speak of. Mendes has 100% TDD, literally never been taken down and could take down Jury at will. -185 is 65%. How do you assign 35% or more to Jury when his best chance is KO? If Jury had some good front chokes like Vick he would have a much better shot.
 
Curious to where you guys cap Volk/Elkins as it seems the majority are on Elkins. I am assuming it is mostly due to price? I just finished capping after smashing Volk's opening prices and I cap Volk around -200 or so. Everyone who has wanted to back Elkins to the fence with power punches and take him down has been able to do so and that is essentially Volk's entire game. Elkin's can grind, but his top control really isn't anything special and Volk has shown great get-ups and scrambling. I have 3.8u Volk -121 and was going to arb down after reading the thread/discussing in chats, but feel pretty good about the stake. As of now I am just planning to hit Elkins dec for a small hedge, assuming it is +5xx.
 
Mendes seems the clear side to me as well. Horrible matchup for Jury. I can understand bet sizing concerns with Mendes just in case the layoff is a big deal, but I have a hard time coming to a reasonable conclusion that Jury would find a way to win this at a decent %.
 
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