UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Karmello, Jul 7, 2018.

  1. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    Apparently Niko Price left ATT and opened his own gym per MMAJUNKIE.

    Huuuge confidence increase in Randy Brown.
     
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  2. BatBoyJG

    BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    Yes for sure. Love my action on Brown at +130 if he drops a bit more I will add. Line now is not bad but will wait.
     
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  3. matthew55

    matthew55 White Belt

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    Anyone else think Carmouche dominates Maia and maybe even knocks her out? I think Maia's only way to win is by submission but even that is unlikely given how much stronger I think Liz is..also, these threads are great and very helpful..thanks to all
     
  4. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Yeah. Dude's only a fav due to his lastname. If his name was John Smith, the random-ass American, he'd be aboout +300.
     
  5. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Nah. Not against a guy who's 2-4 in his last 6 fights (with 3 losses by submission). I know, I know, it's against MUCH better comptetition than Khabib's cousin/brother/whatever.

    I like Scoggins as a dog here too, but if Scoggins was -200 here I wouldn't touch him or even think about it. I'm guessing maybe some hyperbole on your part LOL but I'd cap this more like Scoggins -140 or so.
     
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  6. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    I could see a KO as Maia is pretty chinny, but I don't expect her to dominate by any means. Carmouche should be 2-5 in the UFC as Murphy got robbed. She has no ability to get off the cage as shown vs Davis and Murphy; Maia will keep you there for as long as the ref will let her. Carmouche is low volume with poor fight IQ, Maia should be a slight fav.
     
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  7. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    John Morgan
    @MMAjunkieJohn

    I’m told it’s a big cage despite being a relatively small venue.
     
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  8. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    Didn't check the thread all week due to being on vacation, also didn't have any leans or plays at openers, but just caught up with all the posts.

    Thoughts on fights.

    I wouldn't trust Eddie Wineland for a dime, not to mention Perez always wins bullshit split decsions. Gotta be one of the only fighters in history to get dropped 3x in a 3 round fight and win a decision.

    Elkins-Volk, like I expected, is the most anticipated match up on the card, a fucking shame it's on FS1, the past 16 pages probably had 50 messages about Elkins-Volk, and 5 about JDS/Ivanov. People's main event status. Elkins is +255 now, gonna stalk the line and see if any aussie money comes in before I bet Elkins, also Elkins ITD +1050 is insane.

    JAG has had awful luck in UFC, matched up with Gadelha in debut. Tears her acl. Loses to the gigantor Casey, two fights in a row cancelled. Let's not let that distract us from the fact she was terrific in WSOF and Bellator, Aguilar decision +175 is a good line, but her ML is +125, that might be the safer option.

    Are you really surprised though?

    Was hoping someone said this. Cat hasn't looked like she did against Miesha or Nunes since the Rousey loss...

    Please tell me you hit that +700 live bet too.

    Cody Garbrandt: TJ, you taught everyone at Alpha Male how to use steroids. -2017

    Cody and TJ were UFC champs in 2017, if they were using PEDs back in 2013-2015, they're using them now.

    Don't be fooled by the notion you can't be on steroids while USADA is in town.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2018
  9. Ham Socks

    Ham Socks Professional Fighter

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    The -500 range
     
  10. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Elkins out to +290 on some Aussie books. Love my countrymen.
     
  11. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Gall is a better grappler than Price.

    It's fair to question Brown's fight IQ for playing Gall's game, but he managed to control Gall on the mat enough to win (and at least survive when he got swept and was in a real bad spot on rd 2).

    Gall is legit with his grappling. If he couldn't get close to subbing Brown I'd be somewhat surprised if Niko does.
     
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  12. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Better grappling's a thorny question. You'll frequently get guys who are willing to just go for random cheese submissions, but who are less good as well-rounded grapplers, who'll get more subs in the UFC. Price feels like one of those guys, but it's a style that also tends to result in a lot of getting pounded from bad positions underneath if they fuck up their opportunistic plays. Guys like Brandon Moreno who just get a few opportunistic subs in a row are seen as superior grapplers to guys like Alexander Pantoja, which is nuts.
     
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  13. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 Minion

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    I agree Gall is a great grappler but he is a full grappler. I would even agree he is a better grappler than Price but Price can do what Gall cant and thats force mistakes. Another thing is Price is prob not goin to stay on his back and try to sub Brown.
     
  14. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Forcing mistakes is a strong word. Price probably going to try for more random submissions, which could either catch Brown or get Price stuck under mount.
     
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  15. Dianabol

    Dianabol Yellow Belt

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    Goo Gabe, you constantly predict line movement incorrectly. Last week you were saying Tavares would close +150

    This week you're talking about "late Russian money" on Nurm but it looks like odds Scoggins will only continue to close in.

    I think you also said something about Elkins getting to +400 SMH, now he's +250

    You clearly have no idea how to predict line movement
     
  16. Dianabol

    Dianabol Yellow Belt

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    I'm not sure Garbrandt is on them but I'm very suspicious of TJ.

    USADA caught Mendes, no doubt he was using. It's always possible he's still on them but I doubt he's risking it now and I guarantee you that USADA is testing him more than ever. USADA changed the game for Mini Mendes, his prime is far gone.
     
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  17. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Green Belt

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    Perez is my most confident pick, long side with Volkanovski.
    I wonder how you can trust Eddie, because of +odds ?
    I dont even see value in Eddie at +odds
    I understand you guys to bet Elkins, he has value because finds ways to win, but Eddie ? Lol
     
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  18. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 Minion

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    I didnt bet a lot on this fight and I really dont see how anyone can feel too confident either way but has Price even been mounted before? Has Brown ever mounted anyone?

    EDIT: Far as Elkins goes I know I can count on him to get up after a KD, attempt 12 takedowns and 200 strikes and thats selling him short because he is so much more than that.
     
  19. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Both of those lines are wider dogs than they were when I posted about the movement, and it still isn't 24 hours before the event. Said's last name's gonna be worth a ton to the sort of casuals that abound and don't start swinging till 24 hours before. Elkins briefly crossed +300 on Aussie books, and I posted that he'd keep widening when he was back at +210.
     
  20. Dianabol

    Dianabol Yellow Belt

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    I'm not sure what you're saying is true abour Elkins but I cbf going back to check.

    Lets see where this "late Russian money" is though, you were talking bout that when Scoggins was +145, now he's +125, which means Scoggins will need to get to at least +150 for your prediction to be correct, I don't think that happens.

    There is no such thing as "late Russian money". People just like to bet Russians point blank period.

    It's because Russians are profitable, I don't think timing has anything to do with it.
     

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