UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

TheOneTrueKing said:
No brainier. However it plays out I don't think Elkins bet will feel to wrong. Volk however, may give Elkins the exact fight he wants. Elkins may even be best there. Plus potential for some unanswered questions. A volk bet with hindsight may feel stupid at these prices
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Prettymuch. If somebody got on Volk back when he was cruising around -350, you're on the -EV side unless he comes out and pretty much 30-26's Elkins.
 
Ottow +140 now will happily take a shot on those odds
 
How is Ottow the underdog, is there anything im missing? i mean Ottow is average as hell but Sage doesnt seem like a fighter to me. His grappling sucks and he doesnt like to get hit.
I guess Sage can win by spamming kicks and shooting when Ottow closes distance.
 
Mendes -125
 
molest said:
How is Ottow the underdog, is there anything im missing? i mean Ottow is average as hell but Sage doesnt seem like a fighter to me. His grappling sucks and he doesnt like to get hit.
I guess Sage can win by spamming kicks and shooting when Ottow closes distance.
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I see a few reasons to not go hard on Ottow

--Sage is 22 and still improving. His flaws will be there but he should be less of a joke as time progresses
--Moving up to 170 could help him as a more natural weight class
--If this is a close decision the judges may be biased toward Sage who the UFC is desperate to promote

Let's be honest Ottow's 3 wins are all against old dudes on the way out, and 2 of them were split wins. He's not as good as Gall + Barberena and may not be better than Thibault Gouti. A lot of times Sage is going to eke out a 29-28 decision and it will be frustrating to be sweating Ottow to do good things
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Haven't seen this forum be as excited to lay juice on former star who is past prime that the entire market wants to fade since Gadelha vs Esparza
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Shame everyone in this forum isn’t as sharp as you are
 
ill800 said:
Shame everyone in this forum isn’t as sharp as you are
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It doesn't even require sharpness to know that there's a ton of downside risk in Mendes and that's why the action keeps coming in on Jury. It's not like it's a rare opportunity to bet prime Mendes for cheap bc you aren't getting prime Mendes
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
--Moving up to 170 could help him as a more natural weight class
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No lean on the fight either way but Sage is 0-2 in the UFC at 170 and been finished both times. It's not like this is the first time we're seeing him at the weight class.
 
Feel like Mendes is the easiest bet on this card, hes going to wrestle for 3 rounds and grind out a decision probably 30-27, dont see him getting tagged up by Jury even with the reach disadvantage
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
It doesn't even require sharpness to know that there's a ton of downside risk in Mendes and that's why the action keeps coming in on Jury. It's not like it's a rare opportunity to bet prime Mendes for cheap bc you aren't getting prime Mendes
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Gosh thx for clearing that up for the forum. We would be lost without you.
 
This is the last card I will be betting on for awhile, win or lose. So here are my picks.

Jds
Mendes
Elkins
Northcutt
Price
Bermudez
Scoggins


Ive been right about 8% of the time for the past few months, so fade me and get rich!
 
t6p said:
No lean on the fight either way but Sage is 0-2 in the UFC at 170 and been finished both times. It's not like this is the first time we're seeing him at the weight class.
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Moving up is helping him bro.
lifeisgood12345 said:
I see a few reasons to not go hard on Ottow

--Sage is 22 and still improving. His flaws will be there but he should be less of a joke as time progresses
--Moving up to 170 could help him as a more natural weight class
--If this is a close decision the judges may be biased toward Sage who the UFC is desperate to promote

Let's be honest Ottow's 3 wins are all against old dudes on the way out, and 2 of them were split wins. He's not as good as Gall + Barberena and may not be better than Thibault Gouti. A lot of times Sage is going to eke out a 29-28 decision and it will be frustrating to be sweating Ottow to do good things
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Mickey gall is better than Ottow? Because he beat sage punk and mike Jackson? LOL


dropping those gems on us today
 
ill800 said:
Moving up is helping him bro.


Mickey gall is better than Ottow? Because he beat sage punk and mike Jackson? LOL


dropping those gems on us today
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I should say arguably better. I don't have a strong Mickey Gall take, but he didn't look bad vs Brown, at least had one really good round.

And I don't see any fight that convinces me that Ottow definitely belongs in UFC. He really struggled to beat washed up Burkman and Kunimoto
 
I'm on Eddie Wineland +150. He hasn't fought in a while and is getting sort old, but has KO power and Perez has a weak chin. And even if he doesn't get the KO, Perez never runs away with decisions even though he fights all bad competition. Leggo Eddie
 
werent the HTB guys big on Esquibel prior to the first fight being cancelled?
 
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