UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

Gugabe said:
Volk-Elkins GTD @ -200 feels like a good price. They both feel like they got more finishes from the other guy giving up, than they do from their own styles. Most likely way I see a sub coming is a late RNC from Elkins if Volk's a turtle on his back, but otherwise I'd cap the GTD way closer to -300.
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Volk is strong and Elkins loves taking a beating. You never know when it comes to an end....But ué finishes strong.

I like the ITD line close to +200
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
It doesn't even require sharpness to know that there's a ton of downside risk in Mendes and that's why the action keeps coming in on Jury. It's not like it's a rare opportunity to bet prime Mendes for cheap bc you aren't getting prime Mendes
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Maybe not. But how good exactly is "prime" Jury? Who's his best win? Glenn?

I'll say it again: when Mendes got bet from -225 to -300 I was right with you and figured I'd be on Jury. For exactly the reasons you stated regarding Mendes. But with odds creeping toward even the value shifts. Imo 75% of the best Mendes we've seen still beats the best version ove ever seen of Jury. Now, obviously we could see a worse Mendes than that and a better Jury than we've ever seen. But it has gotten to the point now that betting on Jury at close to evens makes no sense. You are just praying for a really good version of Jury vs a shell of Mendes. Which is possible, but damn sure not reflective of current odds imo.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Haven't seen this forum be as excited to lay juice on former star who is past prime that the entire market wants to fade since Gadelha vs Esparza
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Firstly we do not know if Mendes is past his prime or not. We do know if he is in his prime he prob will not look like it in his first fight back. The only thngs thats stopping me fro dropping more on Mendes at this apparent bargain is Gadelha line movement flashbacks. I bet more on her as her line got better but when it got better and better, I was like wtf is going on here? Thats kinda how I feel about Mendes, feels like there is something I dont know. At the same time though I know I'll feel stupid for not adding on MONEY Mendes at this price when he wrecks Jury.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I should say arguably better. I don't have a strong Mickey Gall take, but he didn't look bad vs Brown, at least had one really good round.

And I don't see any fight that convinces me that Ottow definitely belongs in UFC. He really struggled to beat washed up Burkman and Kunimoto
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Ottow is a legit grappler. We haven't seen much in the UFC but he's good on the mat.

Not sure if this fight ends up on the ground or not, but Sage better have improved if he's gonna play that game with Ottow.
 
This is off topic but don't cancel your off shore account for the new legalized state betting. Someone posted this besides the insane juice, there's a 3 point area where both sides lose??? WTF

DiFexA6WAAIdQjO.jpg
 
Ham Socks said:
This is the last card I will be betting on for awhile, win or lose. So here are my picks.

Jds
Mendes
Elkins
Northcutt
Price
Bermudez
Scoggins


Ive been right about 8% of the time for the past few months, so fade me and get rich!
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On all the same good buddy but I was more confident in UFC 226. I dont trust JDS, Mendes, Elkins, Price, Bermudez or Scogging enough to drop significant money on them. My biggest bets are JDS, Mendes and think about betting more on Bermudez at -175. Still havent bet Northcutt and prob wont but I think it's a fairly close fight Northcutt will win.
 
NewcastleTom said:
This is off topic but don't cancel your off shore account for the new legalized state betting. Someone posted this besides the insane juice, there's a 3 point area where both sides lose??? WTF

DiFexA6WAAIdQjO.jpg
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lol at -150 odds, too. is that real or typo
 
Best betting card will be ufc on fox 30. This one sucks betting wise
 
Gambling gods are really testing discipline with the 4 lines Mendes burmudez dos santos and ottow
 
iGnP said:
lol at -150 odds, too. is that real or typo
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Sorry that turned out to be a fake account, I got it from Todd Fuhrman who used to run the Sports books at Caesars. He came back and said it was fake but he did say the vig was really high when he saw the real numbers. He said:

Correction on the Arena tweet; appears to be a spoof account. HOWEVER this is actually stealing without a gun
 
Aguilar to +150, did something happen or why the sudden line movement?
 
Fuck it I added a bit more to Aguilar, hope nothing weird is going on
 
Karmello said:
Aguilar to +150, did something happen or why the sudden line movement?
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seems to happend often close to the fights... would not worry about it.. i am taking Agu for sure at these odds
 
Mendes -115. Wow.
 
wack3d said:
seems to happend often close to the fights... would not worry about it.. i am taking Agu for sure at these odds
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Yeah probably just normal line movement but it was kind of weird and fast
 
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