UFN 134 Shogun vs Smith

[Yotsuya]

Ledet looks good in shape, he wasnt a big hw anyway

Seems like he’s gotten actually a bit smaller. He’s not just cutting down from hw. I like it.

 

[2bet]

Wiktoruspro since you speak Polish, can you get some "polish info" about Stasik and/or Fabinskis preparation?
I would be more interested in Stasik actually

 

[iGnP]

@Oblivian hey man do you have an opinion on Diakese/Haqparast? I'm leaning Diakese but im having a hard time pulling the trigger

 

[2bet]

Rua/Smith O1.5 is 2,10, that seems pretty off to me.

Shogun isn't that dangerous these days, and the ONLY three guys that ever finished Shogun U1.5 were OSP (by KO), Chael (by a surprising Guillotine) and Coleman (kind of - Shogun broke his own arm by weirdly falling down from a takedown)

 

[DevilsPt2]

In an interview I saw Ledet said he was down to like 210(losing weight faster than he wanted), started being a veggie but incorporates meat during fight camp.

 

[betterthanjones]

Who you guys big on? I'm big on my old man Glover via Bellator retirement @ Corey Anderson. Hopefully Anthony Smith odds get better, can't belive Shogun is still fighting.

Isn't Diakase supposed to be like pretty damn good why aren't the odds juiced? Is his opponent any good?

I'm gonna tail y'all on Zawada

 

[Jamah]

Zawada is super hittable and doesn't have a good chin, he has heart though.
I understand a small play because the odds are too wide considering Roberts is very chinny, but I wouldn't go deep on Zawada.

 

[Card]

 

[rev0lver]

Ledet has fast hands, long arms, and a nice jab, but he is surprisingly hittable in spite of this. Zu Anywanu rolled up fat as fuck on short notice last fight with a 9" reach disadvantage and was landing much more than he should have against somebody with Ledet's boxing pedigree.

Also Ledet has almost no KO power. He tagged Chase Sherman a ton and didn't bother him, and not like Sherman has a great chin. Going down a weight class will only make his power worse, and it may make his chin which was good at HW less good

Rakic is much longer + more athletic than Zu. If Zu can land, so can Rakic.

Ledet is the better grappler, but doesn't have much wrestling and is only blue belt. Barroso went 2/14 on takedowns vs Rakic, so I don't see Ledet's grappling playing more than a small role in in this fight

Just watched each of their UFC fights again

Ledet's only weaknesses I can see are that he CAN be somewhat hittable, though has great counters and doesn't take many shots cleanly. Also never seen him really fazed by any shots. The only thing I'm really worried about are leg kicks. He doesn't defend them well, and doesn't throw many kicks of his own.

I actually think the Sherman fight makes me more confident about this. Sherman actually does have a pretty good chin (Coulter fight is another example of this). But he puts himself in brawls, which inevitably leads you to getting knocked out on occasion. Ledet threw a lot of heavy shots at him that could easily put someone down. He just doesn't throw overhand rights at everything. I wouldn't bet on him having "no KO power" for very long.

Rakic defended Barroso's takedowns when Barroso was shooting them from a mile away. He started doing desperate leg dives when he knew he was starting to lose. The two times Barroso got a good shot in, he took Rakic down pretty easily. If Ledet goes that route, I'm not sure how Rakic will deal with top pressure from a much bigger guy than Barroso.

Rakic does have power, but that's his only chance here. He picks shots and doesn't throw a ton of strikes. I think that plays into Ledet's favor. I can't see Rakic winning this unless he really hits a couple bombs.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Wiktoruspro since you speak Polish, can you get some "polish info" about Stasik and/or Fabinskis preparation?
I would be more interested in Stasik actually

Fabinski and Stasiak prepared in WCA (Best polish club now, Jan Blachowich and I think Marcin Tybura also train there )

 

[piglord]

quick breakdown for ledet/rakic:

https://winnersandwhiners.com/news/...vs-aleksandar-rakic-betting-prediction-62554/

 

[DevilsPt2]

Also like Stasiak took him at -115, would have took Fabinski but I missed the boat on that 1. Why do folks feel Grant has no power? Didnt he drop Marlon Vera? Same with Ledet, dont get it. Also dont see why folks feel Anderson is going to lay on Texeira for 3 rounds, Texeira is great at getting up to his feet and there is a reason Anderson hits over 5 takedowns per fight. Every second those 2 stand n front of each other Andersons livelihood is in serious danger. Texeira on top of him could turn out very bad as well. Anderson has to get takedown at the start of each round and have 14:15 control time lol.

 

[Dooze]

I don't see Leader cutting down being an issue for his chin or his power.

He didn't cut any weight for his HW fights and although he didn't have mad power there, I think either what he did have will translate down or seem stringer with hitting smaller guys.

At HW he had a speed advantage and cardio advantage which might not be as prevalent ( though maybe likewise maybe him getting in shape it will improve and thus still be pravalent). I don't think his chin will suffer because to be honest, he just cut fat.

It doesn't look a difficult cut for him. Generally the guys who struggle are the people who look like James Irwin on the struggle when they cut. It'll be a brutal cut and the stress to their body makes them more susceptible to weaker shots. I don't think that'll be the case here since it looks like a weight class he should have been at all along, he's generally just lost the fat he had rather than looking like he's spent months in a concentration camp.

His boxing seems legit, at HW it was one of the best in the division (albeit against a low level). HW and LHW are notoriously weak outside of the very top, but I think his boxing alone can outclass most mid/low level LHW/HWs.

I dunno how he'd look against someone with solid wrestling, but as far as I know his opponent isn't a solid wrestler. Against mid-low level guys that'd be my main worry backing Ledet. He should have the boxing chops to outbox low/mid level fellas. I dunno how he'll fare against the higher level strikers but the main question marks for me are how he'd fare against at strong grapplers who will either get him down or be relentless in pursuing a takedown.

 

[Oblivian]

@Oblivian hey man do you have an opinion on Diakese/Haqparast? I'm leaning Diakese but im having a hard time pulling the trigger

I'm on Diakese, but honestly, this card isn't doing much for me. I don't really have a strong lean on any fight.

 

[iGnP]

I'm on Diakese, but honestly, this card isn't doing much for me. I don't really have a strong lean on any fight.

thanks for the thoughts!

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Who you guys big on? I'm big on my old man Glover via Bellator retirement @ Corey Anderson. Hopefully Anthony Smith odds get better, can't belive Shogun is still fighting.

Isn't Diakase supposed to be like pretty damn good why aren't the odds juiced? Is his opponent any good?

I'm gonna tail y'all on Zawada

I’m big on Taha. He might get outwrestled and submitted by Nad, but he’s got explosive hands and can easily KO.

Diakiese is kinda dumb and unreliable and Haqparast showed decent promise in his debut fight vs Held and he has a chance to be sure, but I feel people are being too harsh on Diak for losing to really good fighters. He has a clear length and athleticism advantage, and his striking will give Haq lots of trouble. IMO line should be more like -200

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Fights and round props I like placed them now because I am not sure if I will be able to place them in the morning all bets are for 50$ including props

3 fights end in dec+1024
2 fights end in dec+2650
9 fights end in dec+1643

8 fights end in KO+1522
10 fights end in KO+20400
2 fights end in KO+1275

0 fights end in sub+1287
5 fights end in sub+1352
6 fights end in sub+4075

Liu wins inside+315
Stosic wins in rd 2+450
Bermudez wins in rd 1+200
Ledet wins by Dec+209
Narimani wins in rd 2+525
Fabinski wins by Dec+175
Haddzovic wins inside+362
Diaseske wins by dec+257
Zawada+240
Struve wins inside+310
Azitar wins by dec+150
Texeira wins in rd 2+450
Smith wins in rd 3+750

Came up huge on world cup betting 18k for entire Cup 11k of it was in vegas so I got the money right away

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I'm not saying he will have a terrible chin bc of the weight cut. Just that it will be less reliable than it was at HW, because having to cut 35-40 pounds or whatever isn't good for you even if it goes relatively smoothly.

This fight is going to decision more often than not, but IMO Rakic is clearly the bigger KO threat of the two

Well, he's 234 pounds on fightfinder.

That's him against his last opponent, carrying a noticeably amount of flab around his waist.

So just by dieting and exercising with that in mind he could lose a decent amount of bodyfat, which would leave him less than 20 pounds to cut, which is a considerable difference from the 35-40 you're suggesting. I'm very doubtful getting fitter and cutting less than 20 pounds for a former HW is suddenly going to make him have less pop on his punches or will directly affect someone's chin.

 

[betterthanjones]

I’m big on Taha. He might get outwrestled and submitted by Nad, but he’s got explosive hands and can easily KO.

Diakiese is kinda dumb and unreliable and Haqparast showed decent promise in his debut fight vs Held and he has a chance to be sure, but I feel people are being too harsh on Diak for losing to really good fighters. He has a clear length and athleticism advantage, and his striking will give Haq lots of trouble. IMO line should be more like -200

I might just tail you on Taha. Europe FN cards + underdogs? Check.

Yeh I remember DIakase to be slightly dumb but I fight finder'ed his opponent and I don't think he's any good. Diakase should get through this.

 

[Yotsuya]

Taha is my least confident pick on this card by far. Guys on MMA Vivisection have seemed pretty lazy lately, but I just listened what they had to say. Ruebusch thought that Nad’s game is very well put together and that’s enough to beat Taha. Simon argued that Taha has enough speed, athletism and raw talent to expose Nad, who has fought pretty mediocre competition talent-wise.