UFN 134 Shogun vs Smith
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This is basically my betting analysis, although I'm starting to have doubts about my Stasiak play. The Chinese Alpha Males have been looking imrpessive.
Ledet is unquestionably the best play on the card. No idea why he hasn't been recognized as the elite prospect he is.
Tex has to be the right side over Anderson. That's a fight with the most "knowns" on the card, and every known points in Tex's favour.
I was also impressed with Meek enough against Usman to think he's the right side here. Fabinski has fought two softballs in the UFC.
EDIT: Goddamnit my son has gymnastics until 1030 and i likely won't be home to watch stasiak/liu!
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fight finder'ed
you should watch some tape Nas is a very promising prospect GSP's training partner.. Diak may win but would never lay the juice on him
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MMA Vivisection (at least the Ruebusch/Simon version) is weird, because it combines some of the best technical analysis with by far the worst actual predictions compared to any similar broadcast. Plus, Zane Simon in particular talks about people in a way that would definitely have ended up with him KOed in the parking lot of a Superbrawl show by Krazy Horse or Brad Kohler in a different era.
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First rule of listening Vivi: Never ever let their picks influence your ml-bets!
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That's because the idiots miss the forest for the trees.
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fight finder'ed
Yeah no brotha I totally shouldn't lay the juice on Diakase. Im pretty casual nowadays I prolly should re-sub to Fight Pass to make it easier to check tapes.
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Nad has a pretty bad chin. Watch his fight vs Athinodoros Michalidis (who is a massive bum) and he gets rocked in the first 30 seconds. He also is very hittable.
Taha hands are nice. All of his recent fights have been fast finishes except for a sub loss and split win where he rocked his opponent multiple times in both fights. I expect him to land more on striking exchanges and definitely has more KO power. If this was a kickboxing fight I would be extremely confident he should be favored.
But his grappling defense is kinda bad and Nad has solid wrestling and competent submission game to take advantage. There is some chance of Nad wrestlefuck or fast submission. BUT he is an athlete, and I'm willing to gamble that he has improved enough to hang in there and land a KO.
It's a weird fight. Could be a mistake to bet Taha, but I can't help myself. His KO line is really good too.
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Ill tell you guys what these Europe cards usually go very poorly for wannabe wrestlers.
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They have a bad habit of assuming every prospect is terrible because he hasn't beaten anybody good yet. Like they couldn't understand why Azaitar is a fave over 39 y/o Vitor Miranda or why Stosic is a fave over fatass Jeremy Kimball.
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Unless a prospect has actual hype/deliverables behind them, don't make them a big favorite against a guy with UFC wins IMO. Kimball's a fatass, but regional HW cancrushers aren't exactly a winning phenomenon in the past. Kimball's not as terrible as a wikicap makes him look. No real dishonor in losing to Reyes, and the Lima KO1 loss was a bit fluky with the slip. Reminds me of Prachnio being a -300 against Alvey since he'd... looked bad against actual UFC competition or something?
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40 minute warning
https://www.ufc.tv/video/ufc-hamburg-2018-fight-pass-prelims
https://www.ufc.tv/video/ufc-hamburg-2018-fight-pass-prelims
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Quick writeup for every fight, with the prediction = how I cap the fight
Pingyuan Liu vs Damian Stasiak
There's some chance that Liu has terrible grappling defense and Stasiak submits him like he did Grant and Pejic, but outside of that I don't like Stasiak's game. He's a bad striker and not a great wrestler, and if he's stuck in a standup battle he is going to lose against Liu who has better hands and more KO power.
Prediction: Liu 55%
Darko Stosic vs Jeremy Kimball
Stosic has serious holes in his striking defense and there's some chance Kimball has better standup. He seems to prefer to strike, and if he does in this face he can easily get KO'd.
But he does have a judo background and is physically much stronger. If he doesn't want to stand up anymore, he shouldn't have much trouble taking Kimball down.
This fight is hard to bet, but I would take Kimball KO/ITD or Darko decision if anything
Prediction: Stosic 67%
Manny Bermudez vs Davey Grant
Bermudez loves to submit, Grant loves to get submitted. Bermudez has a bad chin, Grant has no power. This is a matchup made in easy mode heaven for Bermudez. Don't trust him enough to lay juice, so I'm passing on this fight.
Prediction: Bermudez 75%
Justin Ledet vs Aleksandar Rakic
Ledet is a great boxer with a decent grappling offense, but Rakic is a very interesting prospect. Big, strong, athletic, seems reasonably high IQ. A bit one dimensional as a kickboxer, but he has been sparring with JDS and if Zu can tag Ledet in standup so can Rakic. Close fight but my brain just likes Rakic more
Prediction: Rakic 60%
Nad Narimani vs Khalid Taha
Narimani has a bad chin + striking defense while Taha has great hands. Taha has bad grappling defense while Nad has solid wrestling and submission game. This could go either way, and it's probably correct to have Nad favored. But I'm feeling Taha here-- he can easily KO
Prediction: Nad 55%
Emil Meek vs Bartosz Fabinski
I really don't think Meek is good. He was KO'd pre-UFC by a submission specialist, he is hittable, he is easy to take down, and his offense entails wildly brawling and chasing bad guillotine attempts.
Don't have the best read on Fabinski. Can't find tape but his split win over Tseiko and unanimous loss for Wendres Carlos da Silva implies that he has holes in his game when he can't take his opponent down and hold him there. So he's probably not great, and he is definitely less likely to finish. Coinflippy fight
Prediction: Meek 51%
Damir Hadzovic vs Nick Hein
What is Hein even good for? He has short arms, can't finish, and in spite of all of his judo medals his grappling offense has been very limited in UFC. He also seems to be in decline-- his last two decision wins vs Bang and Kasuya could have been more dominant, and he didn't look good at all vs Ramos even before they hit the mat.
Hadzovic isn't a world beater himself, but he has a 4" reach advantage, KO power, is a bit younger. Definitely more likely to finish, and the fact he was hanging in striking vs Taisumov means he can strike with Hein.
Hein probably lands at least a takedown or two, but he isn't a smothering grappler like Patrick or Held so we can finally see Damir at his best, whatever that is. Think the wrong guy is slightly favored here:
Prediction: Hadz 55%
Pingyuan Liu vs Damian Stasiak
There's some chance that Liu has terrible grappling defense and Stasiak submits him like he did Grant and Pejic, but outside of that I don't like Stasiak's game. He's a bad striker and not a great wrestler, and if he's stuck in a standup battle he is going to lose against Liu who has better hands and more KO power.
Prediction: Liu 55%
Darko Stosic vs Jeremy Kimball
Stosic has serious holes in his striking defense and there's some chance Kimball has better standup. He seems to prefer to strike, and if he does in this face he can easily get KO'd.
But he does have a judo background and is physically much stronger. If he doesn't want to stand up anymore, he shouldn't have much trouble taking Kimball down.
This fight is hard to bet, but I would take Kimball KO/ITD or Darko decision if anything
Prediction: Stosic 67%
Manny Bermudez vs Davey Grant
Bermudez loves to submit, Grant loves to get submitted. Bermudez has a bad chin, Grant has no power. This is a matchup made in easy mode heaven for Bermudez. Don't trust him enough to lay juice, so I'm passing on this fight.
Prediction: Bermudez 75%
Justin Ledet vs Aleksandar Rakic
Ledet is a great boxer with a decent grappling offense, but Rakic is a very interesting prospect. Big, strong, athletic, seems reasonably high IQ. A bit one dimensional as a kickboxer, but he has been sparring with JDS and if Zu can tag Ledet in standup so can Rakic. Close fight but my brain just likes Rakic more
Prediction: Rakic 60%
Nad Narimani vs Khalid Taha
Narimani has a bad chin + striking defense while Taha has great hands. Taha has bad grappling defense while Nad has solid wrestling and submission game. This could go either way, and it's probably correct to have Nad favored. But I'm feeling Taha here-- he can easily KO
Prediction: Nad 55%
Emil Meek vs Bartosz Fabinski
I really don't think Meek is good. He was KO'd pre-UFC by a submission specialist, he is hittable, he is easy to take down, and his offense entails wildly brawling and chasing bad guillotine attempts.
Don't have the best read on Fabinski. Can't find tape but his split win over Tseiko and unanimous loss for Wendres Carlos da Silva implies that he has holes in his game when he can't take his opponent down and hold him there. So he's probably not great, and he is definitely less likely to finish. Coinflippy fight
Prediction: Meek 51%
Damir Hadzovic vs Nick Hein
What is Hein even good for? He has short arms, can't finish, and in spite of all of his judo medals his grappling offense has been very limited in UFC. He also seems to be in decline-- his last two decision wins vs Bang and Kasuya could have been more dominant, and he didn't look good at all vs Ramos even before they hit the mat.
Hadzovic isn't a world beater himself, but he has a 4" reach advantage, KO power, is a bit younger. Definitely more likely to finish, and the fact he was hanging in striking vs Taisumov means he can strike with Hein.
Hein probably lands at least a takedown or two, but he isn't a smothering grappler like Patrick or Held so we can finally see Damir at his best, whatever that is. Think the wrong guy is slightly favored here:
Prediction: Hadz 55%
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When did Meek get to -105?
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Main card
Marc Diakiese vs Nasrat Hasparast
Diakiese has a bad fight IQ and is not trustworthy as a fave whatsoever. Haq looks like a solid prospect and could outwrestle him or land a bomb on foot.
BUT Diak is taller, longer, and much more athletic. He should easily land more on foot, and is more likely to KO with Haqparast having an untested chin. Not in a rush to lay juice on Diak, but he is a little bit cheap here IMO
Prediction: Diakiese 65%
David Zawada vs Danny Roberts
Zawada isn't that athletic and has some holes in his defense, and Roberts could get another highlight KO. But Robert has holes in his defense himself. Hittable, bad chin, bad wrestling. Zawada is well rounded enough to take advantage of all those things. He could KO or win a close decision at home, even if Roberts is the rightful favorite
Prediction: Roberts 60%
Marcin Tybura vs Stefan Struve
I don't know what to do with Stefan Struve. He is somehow talented enough to beat Stipe but bad enough to lose to anybody else, and his last two fights were particularly bad. His game just isn't all the way there.
Maybe the losses wake him up and he has a big performance and finishes Tybura. Or maybe he fights bad again and Tybura easily outpoints or finishes him. Your guess is as good as mine.
Prediction: Tybura 67%
Abu Azaitar vs Vitor Miranda
Abu is really not a good prospect. Bad grappling defense, suspect chin, not really a finisher. But the UFC is setting him up with a really easy first fight against 39 year old Vitor Miranda at home on the main card.
Vitor is crafty enough such that he can land a headkick KO. But he doesn't have great hands or wrestling offense, and without the headkick I expect Azaitar to either get the KO against his old chin or win a decision
Prediction: Azaitar 70%
Glover Teixeira vs Corey Anderson
Really don't know what to do with this fight. Glover looked kinda meh in his last KO win, and you can never trust Anderson's chin. But Corey is very skilled and 10 years younger. If Glover can't put him to sleep he may be in trouble. Really tough fight to predict though, I am not betting
Prediction: Glover 55%
Anthony Smith vs Shogun Rua
Man do I want to bet on Shogun given his superior skill and IQ to Smith. But Lionheart looked great in his first fight at 205, and the chin/power disparity will be very significant for a 5 round fight. I think Rua lands more often but Smith's shots hurt more, and Smith probably gets the KO. Although I am not into the idea of laying juice on Smith. Another really tough fight to bet
Prediction: Smith 65%
Marc Diakiese vs Nasrat Hasparast
Diakiese has a bad fight IQ and is not trustworthy as a fave whatsoever. Haq looks like a solid prospect and could outwrestle him or land a bomb on foot.
BUT Diak is taller, longer, and much more athletic. He should easily land more on foot, and is more likely to KO with Haqparast having an untested chin. Not in a rush to lay juice on Diak, but he is a little bit cheap here IMO
Prediction: Diakiese 65%
David Zawada vs Danny Roberts
Zawada isn't that athletic and has some holes in his defense, and Roberts could get another highlight KO. But Robert has holes in his defense himself. Hittable, bad chin, bad wrestling. Zawada is well rounded enough to take advantage of all those things. He could KO or win a close decision at home, even if Roberts is the rightful favorite
Prediction: Roberts 60%
Marcin Tybura vs Stefan Struve
I don't know what to do with Stefan Struve. He is somehow talented enough to beat Stipe but bad enough to lose to anybody else, and his last two fights were particularly bad. His game just isn't all the way there.
Maybe the losses wake him up and he has a big performance and finishes Tybura. Or maybe he fights bad again and Tybura easily outpoints or finishes him. Your guess is as good as mine.
Prediction: Tybura 67%
Abu Azaitar vs Vitor Miranda
Abu is really not a good prospect. Bad grappling defense, suspect chin, not really a finisher. But the UFC is setting him up with a really easy first fight against 39 year old Vitor Miranda at home on the main card.
Vitor is crafty enough such that he can land a headkick KO. But he doesn't have great hands or wrestling offense, and without the headkick I expect Azaitar to either get the KO against his old chin or win a decision
Prediction: Azaitar 70%
Glover Teixeira vs Corey Anderson
Really don't know what to do with this fight. Glover looked kinda meh in his last KO win, and you can never trust Anderson's chin. But Corey is very skilled and 10 years younger. If Glover can't put him to sleep he may be in trouble. Really tough fight to predict though, I am not betting
Prediction: Glover 55%
Anthony Smith vs Shogun Rua
Man do I want to bet on Shogun given his superior skill and IQ to Smith. But Lionheart looked great in his first fight at 205, and the chin/power disparity will be very significant for a 5 round fight. I think Rua lands more often but Smith's shots hurt more, and Smith probably gets the KO. Although I am not into the idea of laying juice on Smith. Another really tough fight to bet
Prediction: Smith 65%
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He didn't. I am giving my EV's for each fight
I think those numbers are his estimations on what the line should be. Should rather be using %'s, thought.
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I definitely agree with this, but it's also clear that Stosic has significant advantages that make him a rightful favorite even if the juice is a bit much. UFC is feeding him Kimball for a reason-- bc he should win if he isn't a flop (which he very well may be)
piglord
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Highly touted submission artist, Manny Bermudez, travels to Hamburg, Germany, to face grizzled British veteran, Davey Grant, in what should be an interesting clash of styles.
Opportunistic Submissions
It’s no secret Manny Bermudez favors jiu-jitsu as his path to victory. With an array of submissions in his arsenal, you’re always in danger when tying up.
Like the UFC’s most famous opportunistic submission threat, Bryan Ortega, Bermudez can even finish you with a guillotine from a standing position.
Despite his dangerous ground game, his wrestling didn’t look particularly good in his last fight. In fact, he was fortunate Albert Morales engaged him in the grappling exchanges more than he should of.
On the feet, Bermudez has some work to do. Morales was consistently able to find a home for his punches and unless Bermudez has improved dramatically, I would expect Davey Grant to have a significant striking advantage too.
We saw a drop in output from Bermudez after the first round against Morales. Given that most of his victories have come by way of first round submission, I wonder what will happen if Grant is able to defend the initial onslaught and keep pushing forward in rounds two and three?
A Well-Rounded Veteran
There are no facets of Davey Grant’s game that stand out, but he’s competent everywhere.
Grant isn’t great at defending takedowns, but he’s a good scrambler. If he’s taken down, I don’t think Bermudez will be able to snatch up a quick submission as he did against most of his regional opponents.
In his last fight against Damian Stasiak, Grant dominated the striking exchanges but evidently didn’t gameplan to keep the fight standing. He would be wise to avoid grappling with Bermudez at all costs.
It’s worth noting that Grant is coming off a long layoff and has only fought three times since signing with the UFC in 2013. Ring rust could be a legitimate concern.
Where is the Value?
Given the elite submission credentials of Manny Bermudez, it’s no surprise he’s the favorite. However, he’s still too unproven to warrant playing his -280 moneyline.
While there are definitely question marks about Davey Grant, I think his +240 moneyline is a bit disrespectful. I would cap him around +135, so there is value if you like the underdog.
Grant could absolutely win this fight with his striking edge. At the same time, it’s easy to envision Bermudez getting beaten on the feet, pulling guard and then locking up a triangle against the run of play.
Fight doesn’t go to decision most likely hits, but -200 doesn’t excite me. I’ll take my chances with the underdog for a small wager.
Pick: Grant +240
Opportunistic Submissions
It’s no secret Manny Bermudez favors jiu-jitsu as his path to victory. With an array of submissions in his arsenal, you’re always in danger when tying up.
Like the UFC’s most famous opportunistic submission threat, Bryan Ortega, Bermudez can even finish you with a guillotine from a standing position.
Despite his dangerous ground game, his wrestling didn’t look particularly good in his last fight. In fact, he was fortunate Albert Morales engaged him in the grappling exchanges more than he should of.
On the feet, Bermudez has some work to do. Morales was consistently able to find a home for his punches and unless Bermudez has improved dramatically, I would expect Davey Grant to have a significant striking advantage too.
We saw a drop in output from Bermudez after the first round against Morales. Given that most of his victories have come by way of first round submission, I wonder what will happen if Grant is able to defend the initial onslaught and keep pushing forward in rounds two and three?
A Well-Rounded Veteran
There are no facets of Davey Grant’s game that stand out, but he’s competent everywhere.
Grant isn’t great at defending takedowns, but he’s a good scrambler. If he’s taken down, I don’t think Bermudez will be able to snatch up a quick submission as he did against most of his regional opponents.
In his last fight against Damian Stasiak, Grant dominated the striking exchanges but evidently didn’t gameplan to keep the fight standing. He would be wise to avoid grappling with Bermudez at all costs.
It’s worth noting that Grant is coming off a long layoff and has only fought three times since signing with the UFC in 2013. Ring rust could be a legitimate concern.
Where is the Value?
Given the elite submission credentials of Manny Bermudez, it’s no surprise he’s the favorite. However, he’s still too unproven to warrant playing his -280 moneyline.
While there are definitely question marks about Davey Grant, I think his +240 moneyline is a bit disrespectful. I would cap him around +135, so there is value if you like the underdog.
Grant could absolutely win this fight with his striking edge. At the same time, it’s easy to envision Bermudez getting beaten on the feet, pulling guard and then locking up a triangle against the run of play.
Fight doesn’t go to decision most likely hits, but -200 doesn’t excite me. I’ll take my chances with the underdog for a small wager.
Pick: Grant +240
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