UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

It's not really about betting him as a favorite or not. That doesn't affect our personal analyses of the matchup itself. I was against him in most of his losses. I bet Gaethje but not Elkins. Elkins seems to try for subs more than Fili does, and he's shown us a lot more toughness. This matchup I see in MJ's favor, and I like that his recent record looks pretty poor because it pushes the odds more in my favor. 3-7 as a favorite means nothing to me compared to having an opponent who struggles against strong strikers and doesn't demonstrate a strong enough factor against MJ's main weaknesses.

Should be also worth mentioning that in two of those recent fights where he was a favorite, 1 he had his opponent nearly finished in the first, and 1 he probably got robbed in. I wouldn't want to bet on that again. And none of the others seem to compare to Fili at all.
MJ ain't gonna get you paid, he's as unreliable as it gets. Going 3-7 as a favorite is ridiculous. Just shows how over valued he is. The guy is not a winner and he's not consistent.

MJ is clearly on the decline too and FW is probably a bad move. MJ has even said he doesn't know if he will stay there, the guy is full of doubt and who can blame him, my confidence would be in the gutter too if I lost as much as him.

He's taken massive damage in his career too and a lot in recent fights, Khabib tortured him Gaethje rekt him, career changing beatings . You should be trusting him less than ever at this point, its only downhill from here.

Fili keeps looking better and I see a lot of you underestimating him, anyone that can wrestle is going to give MJ problems. And MJ isn't going to dominate Fili on the feet either, it'll be competitive. Listen to Fili in recent interviews, he confident, he's motivated and for good reason, he's beginning to enter his prime.

MJ is going to lose again and provide another underdog pay day, that what he's about. He'll look good for about 5 minuttes and then begin to roll over. Fili ain't gonna roll over.

If you're betting MJ as a favorite at this point, you're asking for an L, just a fact.
 
GSP says Andrew Sanchez is the best cage wrestler he's ever seen, respect.


No more getting tired
 
MJ ain't gonna get you paid, he's as unreliable as it gets. Going 3-7 as a favorite is ridiculous. Just shows how over valued he is. The guy is not a winner and he's not consistent.

MJ is clearly on the decline too and FW is probably a bad move. MJ has even said he doesn't know if he will stay there, the guy is full of doubt and who can blame him, my confidence would be in the gutter too if I lost as much as him.

He's taken massive damage in his career too and a lot in recent fights, Khabib tortured him Gaethje rekt him, career changing beatings . You should be trusting him less than ever at this point, its only downhill from here.

Fili keeps looking better and I see a lot of you underestimating him, anyone that can wrestle is going to give MJ problems. And MJ isn't going to dominate Fili on the feet either, it'll be competitive. Listen to Fili in recent interviews, he confident, he's motivated and for good reason, he's beginning to enter his prime.

MJ is going to lose again and provide another underdog pay day, that what he's about. He'll look good for about 5 minuttes and then begin to roll over. Fili ain't gonna roll over.

If you're betting MJ as a favorite at this point, you're asking for an L, just a fact.
Fili's looking better than ever? He had Lobov as an opponent who'd make anybody look good, and then a horrific robbery of Bermudez. Fili's never won a round in his UFC career after he's lost a round in the same fight. They're both front-runners, but MJ's first-shot TDD and superior striking, power & athleticism will be enough to cruise this as Fili either gets KO'd clean in the first or just wilts out of the fight Kattar-style.
 
Fili's looking better than ever? He had Lobov as an opponent who'd make anybody look good, and then a horrific robbery of Bermudez. Fili's never won a round in his UFC career after he's lost a round in the same fight. They're both front-runners, but MJ's first-shot TDD and superior striking, power & athleticism will be enough to cruise this as Fili either gets KO'd clean in the first or just wilts out of the fight Kattar-style.
You should take a back seat on this one. You clearly don't have a good read on MJ and you're not good at betting on his fights, you bet him as a favorite in his last two fights and we know how that went. I can't believe you're gonna do it again either, hopefully after he loses this time you'll learn your lesson.

And I don't get how you can call Fili's win over Bermudez a "horrific robbery". I don't think Fili is a front runner at all, certainly not on the level MJ is, MJ is one of the biggest front runners in the UFC, just look at his last two fights in particular. The quit job vs Elkins was pathetic, looked like such a rookie on the mat.
 
Ok Im not betting Perez. Thanks for the info
I was looking to bet Perez but the more I looked into it the more I liked Sanchez

Perez gasses out too, gassed so bad vs Anders. Small for the division, not high level anywhere.

Perez also took this on short notice which makes me think he's gonna gas just like he did vs Anders. Hopefully Sanchez had at good camp at Tri Star and has worked on his cardio because he's the better fighter no doubt.

But I'm not going big on Sanchez because he is coming off two KO losses and there are things I'm concerned about.
 
You should take a back seat on this one. You clearly don't have a good read on MJ and you're not good at betting on his fights, you bet him as a favorite in his last two fights and we know how that went. I can't believe you're gonna do it again either, hopefully after he loses this time you'll learn your lesson.

And I don't get how you can call Fili's win over Bermudez a "horrific robbery". I don't think Fili is a front runner at all, certainly not on the level MJ is, MJ is one of the biggest front runners in the UFC, just look at his last two fights in particular. The quit job vs Elkins was pathetic, looked like such a rookie on the mat.
I turned onto Gaethje after R1 @ +250, actually. Knew they both had clear win-conditions, but MJ at near-evens was the sensible side with Gaethje not being proven at the top level. And MJ/Gaethje was so close there really wasn't a bad bet available. Elkins loss was totally horrific, but his R1 performance was good. I just don't see Fili holding on through the Johnson that rocked up to R1 against Fili.
 
I was looking to bet Perez but the more I looked into it the more I liked Sanchez

Perez gasses out too, gassed so bad vs Anders. Small for the division, not high level anywhere.

Perez also took this on short notice which makes me think he's gonna gas just like he did vs Anders. Hopefully Sanchez had at good camp at Tri Star and has worked on his cardio because he's the better fighter no doubt.

But I'm not going big on Sanchez because he is coming off two KO losses and there are things I'm concerned about.
Haven't bet this fight myself, pre-tape I was thinking Perez also, but after tape I think I might pass.

What is your most confident pick for this event if I may ask?
 
I turned onto Gaethje after R1 @ +250, actually. Knew they both had clear win-conditions, but MJ at near-evens was the sensible side with Gaethje not being proven at the top level. And MJ/Gaethje was so close there really wasn't a bad bet available. Elkins loss was totally horrific, but his R1 performance was good. I just don't see Fili holding on through the Johnson that rocked up to R1 against Fili.
But thats the thing with MJ, he almost always wins the 1st round but then you know what follows. And if you can put him in certain positions he becomes totally lost.

MJ's cardio is also another concern and I don't think the cut to FW will help that. He's also said he doesn't know if he'll stay at FW, he says its all about how he performs in this fight. He was a 155er his whole career and at 32 years old he makes the drop, why? career desperation, I can compare it to what Pettis did.

At some point in this fight Fili is gonna run through MJ with a blast double and put him on his back, the longer the fight goes the more it favors Fili, the more time MJ has to flake out.
 
Haven't bet this fight myself, pre-tape I was thinking Perez also, but after tape I think I might pass.

What is your most confident pick for this event if I may ask?
I like Figueiredo a lot. Gifted athlete, very dangerous, BJJ blackbelt, undefeated, improving. I also believe he's on PED's. Spent a month at TAM for this camp too so I'm sure he's getting some good looks for Moraga there.

I don't think Moraga has any advantages in this fight, he's outmatched, will probably get KO'd.
 
I like Figueiredo a lot. Gifted athlete, very dangerous, BJJ blackbelt, undefeated, improving. I also believe he's on PED's. Spent a month at TAM for this camp too so I'm sure he's getting some good looks for Moraga there.

I don't think Moraga has any advantages in this fight, he's outmatched, will probably get KO'd.
Yes I agree and I'm also pretty big on Figueiredo here, don't know about the PED stuf though, but if true that's another plus for betting him.
 
Figueiredo is my most confident and largest bet aswell, he's the dark horse of that division
 
Payed the juice for Michael Johnson not without a doubt but still. I think Fili is the middle-level fighter he beats.

Figueiredo is my most confident and largest bet aswell, he's the dark horse of that division
Great to hear you guys are also on Figueiredo, makes me even more confident :)
You guys are going to force to watch some tape!! I dont even have him on my radar.
 
Payed the juice for Michael Johnson not without a doubt but still. I think Fili is the middle-level fighter he beats.



You guys are going to force to watch some tape!! I dont even have him on my radar.

I think he is one of the better bets on the card (Figueiredo) that isn't heavily juiced. He is going to be able to take down Moraga with trips or takedowns and Moraga defends with a guillotine chokes but if Moraga doesn't get the choke, Figueiredo will be on top and in his guard. Even though Figueiredo loves to bang on the feet, he is pretty skilled on the ground and could submit Moraga on the ground.
 
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I like Figueiredo a lot. Gifted athlete, very dangerous, BJJ blackbelt, undefeated, improving. I also believe he's on PED's. Spent a month at TAM for this camp too so I'm sure he's getting some good looks for Moraga there.

I don't think Moraga has any advantages in this fight, he's outmatched, will probably get KO'd.

Figueiredo is my most confident and largest bet aswell, he's the dark horse of that division

Doesn't a win over Reis concern you? This seems like the type of matchup where Moraga can get starched or win a split.

Also, should the fact this is in Nebraska play any factor in Figs fight history (all in Brazil).
 
Doesn't a win over Reis concern you? This seems like the type of matchup where Moraga can get starched or win a split.

Also, should the fact this is in Nebraska play any factor in Figs fight history (all in Brazil).
Yeah Moraga has been looking good lately, the left hook he landed on Bibulatov was beutiful. I didn't think Reis looked that good in their fight though, he was coming of two rough losses. Figueiredo has ooked to be improving a lot with each fight, and he's probably the hardest hitter in that division
I'm not max betting him, got 2.4u now and will probably play ITD or KO aswell, it's just that the other clear favorites are so juiced and I don't feel really confident in any other matchup.
I've played Faria (favorite dog pick at +185), Sanchez, Hill, Sandhagen/Iuri FDGTD this far and will probably play Vick somehow, maybe Dober if odds improve
 
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