UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

@raketmannen @MrShady @MT6ix
I watched some tape... I gotta say Im going small with Moraga as the underdog here.

If Fig stands and trade he loses most of the time. I think he needs to make it a grappling battle which I think he can.

While Moraga comes from a wrestling background his overall grappling (specially defense) is not that special... A key for him is to avoid ending with his back against the fence. But he has some good scrambles and if he finds himself in top position he should be able to score points by riding until the end of the round.

I think experience, cardio and fight IQ can play a big factor here and Moraga has the edge in all those areas. Also I think he has cleaner striking and throws more volume. He looked really good since he left that 3 fight losing streak and all the retirement talk in the past.

Much less important but:
This is Figs first fight outside Brazil for what it worths.
Also while he may be undefeated (and that usually affect the odds) but I thought he lost to Brooks (not that Brooks and Moraga have much in common) so I dont see that undefeated aura on him.

Damn I feel so rusty after like 2 years without watching tape or anything. Im ready to eat a few crows in this card but Im happy to be back.

I would cap Moraga as a small favorite here but Im not going to claim Im a big shot or a sharp bettor... this is just a humble opinion and my 2 cents.
 
I turned onto Gaethje after R1 @ +250, actually. Knew they both had clear win-conditions, but MJ at near-evens was the sensible side with Gaethje not being proven at the top level. And MJ/Gaethje was so close there really wasn't a bad bet available. Elkins loss was totally horrific, but his R1 performance was good. I just don't see Fili holding on through the Johnson that rocked up to R1 against Fili.

Elkins and Gaethje are arguably the two most hittable non-HW's on the UFC roster. Gaethje probably is the most hittable including HW's. I don't think MJ looking good offensively against those 2 guys gives a ton of insight into how sharp he actually is at this point.
 
@raketmannen @MrShady @MT6ix
I watched some tape... I gotta say Im going small with Moraga as the underdog here.

If Fig stands and trade he loses most of the time. I think he needs to make it a grappling battle which I think he can.

While Moraga comes from a wrestling background his overall grappling (specially defense) is not that special... A key for him is to avoid ending with his back against the fence. But he has some good scrambles and if he finds himself in top position he should be able to score points by riding until the end of the round.

I think experience, cardio and fight IQ can play a big factor here and Moraga has the edge in all those areas. Also I think he has cleaner striking and throws more volume. He looked really good since he left that 3 fight losing streak and all the retirement talk in the past.

Much less important but:
This is Figs first fight outside Brazil for what it worths.
Also while he may be undefeated (and that usually affect the odds) but I thought he lost to Brooks (not that Brooks and Moraga have much in common) so I dont see that undefeated aura on him.

Damn I feel so rusty after like 2 years without watching tape or anything. Im ready to eat a few crows in this card but Im happy to be back.

I would cap Moraga as a small favorite here but Im not going to claim Im a big shot or a sharp bettor... this is just a humble opinion and my 2 cents.

Welcome back to the board, you have some fair points.

For a guy that has a good wrestling background, Moraga has some poor takedown defense, he uses the guillotine choke to stuff takedown attempts, when he doesn't get it. His opponents end on top and in his guard, opponents score points look that. Wilson Reis was landing takedowns with trips against Moraga. Figs is really adept at using trips when he has bodylock or against the fence. Figs is really skilled on the ground as a bjj black belt but people just see a guy that likes to bang. Takedowns are there all day if he wants it. Figs is also a really good scrambler, he has the edge on the ground.

I agree he lost the fight to Jarred Brooks but in that fight, Brooks applied a grappling/wrestling heavy attack and Figs cardio looked fine in the 3rd round of that fight. Most guys gas in that situation. Figs cuts a lot of weight, something like 30 pounds to make the limit but it doesn't seem to affect him but at the same time he is stronger than most of the guys in the division and carries the power of a bigger guy.

I do agree Moraga is the cleaner striker with better technique but Figs isn't stationary and uses weird angles to strike and he has really good timing on his striking and Moraga isn't going to have the speed advantage in this fight either.

If it just plays out on the feet it could be competitive but Figs can get Moraga to the ground and win the fight their pretty easily if he wants and possibly submit him.

I have 1u on Figueiredo in this fight, I just see the path to victory is pretty clear for him. He doesn't need to just stand and bang with Moraga to win.
 
Welcome back to the board, you have some fair points.

For a guy that has a good wrestling background, Moraga has some poor takedown defense, he uses the guillotine choke to stuff takedown attempts, when he doesn't get it. His opponents end on top and in his guard, opponents score points look that. Wilson Reis was landing takedowns with trips against Moraga. Figs is really adept at using trips when he has bodylock or against the fence. Figs is really skilled on the ground as a bjj black belt but people just see a guy that likes to bang. Takedowns are there all day if he wants it. Figs is also a really good scrambler, he has the edge on the ground.

I agree he lost the fight to Jarred Brooks but in that fight, Brooks applied a grappling/wrestling heavy attack and Figs cardio looked fine in the 3rd round of that fight. Most guys gas in that situation. Figs cuts a lot of weight, something like 30 pounds to make the limit but it doesn't seem to affect him but at the same time he is stronger than most of the guys in the division and carries the power of a bigger guy.

I do agree Moraga is the cleaner striker with better technique but Figs isn't stationary and uses weird angles to strike and he has really good timing on his striking and Moraga isn't going to have the speed advantage in this fight either.

If it just plays out on the feet it could be competitive but Figs can get Moraga to the ground and win the fight their pretty easily if he wants and possibly submit him.

I have 1u on Figueiredo in this fight, I just see the path to victory is pretty clear for him. He doesn't need to just stand and bang with Moraga to win.
Fair points.

IIRC Figs also used the guillotine TDD against Brooks a lot. IDK why guys keep doing that. I reckon that slippery SOB Brooks looks impossible to submit with guillotines... Fig had that sinked.

Maybe Im just playing with Figs being unexperienced and maybe overconfident in this one and Moraga being smarter composed and well prepared.

Lets see how it plays out.
 
Kneebars can obviously damage the leg, but (and if you are a black belt you already know this obviously) straight leglocks like that are more about pain than the worry of severe damage to your knee.

I'm just saying that as someone who was allowed to use straight leglocks like that very early on in my training but had to wait a long time before being allowed to do heel hooks (or even work on defending heel hooks). Those are where the real danger is in ruining the ligaments and tendons because by the time you feel the pain and tap it's often too late and your knee is screwed.

In a UFC level MMA fight, a very quick tap to any straight leglock at the very least should raise some eyebrows. I get quick taps when (for example) you had a beast like Palhares latching on to heel hooks and shredding all sorts of dudes knees.

I think we agree here. The dudes actual grappling technique is a lot less of a concern than his heart and wits to implement it. As soon as iuri started reaching for the knee bar he stopped and defended and got ready to tap. Exactly like you said it looked like he was afraid of getting hurt. Reminded me of when you roll with a higher belt and know he’s gonna tap you and you’re waiting to see with what haha.
 
I remember when I parlayed almost all my bets with Adriano Martins when he fought Kajan Johnson for "a free extra few $$". Afterwards had to scramble to throw more money in so I could try to break even.

I am totally guilty of doing the exact same thing with Miocic/Ngannou ITD.

I would have made huge money if I hadn't parlayed almost anything with that, in the end I lost a loooooot.

To be honest it still blows my mind that that fight went the distance.
That outcome was just unimageable for me, and still is, somehow
 
Ya'll haven't seen me around these parts and rightfully so. I've documented my personal struggles and things are only getting worse. Don't know if therapy is helping or making matters worse, but things are looking bleak. Still, I do what I am good at and that is handicapping and placing wagers. Been on a monumental uptick probably hitting at a 65% clip on my value bets. Have 10k set aside for the Mcgregor/Nurmagomedov clash.

Please pray for me and I appreciate all the support from the peeps who've kept it real with me and haven't dissed me. One of the original OG's of the Sherdog betting community. Started from nothing and am at a place where very few can succeed.

- Barry
 
Ya'll haven't seen me around these parts and rightfully so. I've documented my personal struggles and things are only getting worse. Don't know if therapy is helping or making matters worse, but things are looking bleak. Still, I do what I am good at and that is handicapping and placing wagers. Been on a monumental uptick probably hitting at a 65% clip on my value bets. Have 10k set aside for the Mcgregor/Nurmagomedov clash.

Please pray for me and I appreciate all the support from the peeps who've kept it real with me and haven't dissed me. One of the original OG's of the Sherdog betting community. Started from nothing and am at a place where very few can succeed.

- Barry
No free picks Barry? How dare you.
 
Ya'll haven't seen me around these parts and rightfully so. I've documented my personal struggles and things are only getting worse. Don't know if therapy is helping or making matters worse, but things are looking bleak. Still, I do what I am good at and that is handicapping and placing wagers. Been on a monumental uptick probably hitting at a 65% clip on my value bets. Have 10k set aside for the Mcgregor/Nurmagomedov clash.

Please pray for me and I appreciate all the support from the peeps who've kept it real with me and haven't dissed me. One of the original OG's of the Sherdog betting community. Started from nothing and am at a place where very few can succeed.

- Barry


Man, start a thread for your personal shit. This is for betting. You mentioned McGregor Khabib and didn't even give your bets. No bets on this card either. Now the next page or two will be all about people asking if you're OK and giving you attention instead of focusing on the fights.
 
Any props you guys looking at?

Williams ko +1525, he was willing to stand and bang in his first fight against Piechota, not impossible he lands a punch that rocks Anders.

Faria sub +885, huge skill gap on ground, already on Faria's ML, think she will get Joanne down and "dominate."
 
Ya'll haven't seen me around these parts and rightfully so. I've documented my personal struggles and things are only getting worse. Don't know if therapy is helping or making matters worse, but things are looking bleak. Still, I do what I am good at and that is handicapping and placing wagers. Been on a monumental uptick probably hitting at a 65% clip on my value bets. Have 10k set aside for the Mcgregor/Nurmagomedov clash.

Please pray for me and I appreciate all the support from the peeps who've kept it real with me and haven't dissed me. One of the original OG's of the Sherdog betting community. Started from nothing and am at a place where very few can succeed.

- Barry

FFS Barry, you aren't in prison are you? Jeez man, don't drop the soap!
 
Gall is gonna get to a dominant position on Sullivan. I don't think it's crazy at all that he pounds him out vs getting the sub.

Gall also dropped Sage with a punch, and the reporter that just beat up CM Punk (can't remember his name LOL). Gall's striking looks sloppy but he has a solid chin and isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and throw.

Gall KO/TKO at +900, I'm on board.
 
Gall is gonna get to a dominant position on Sullivan. I don't think it's crazy at all that he pounds him out vs getting the sub.

Gall also dropped Sage with a punch, and the reporter that just beat up CM Punk (can't remember his name LOL). Gall's striking looks sloppy but he has a solid chin and isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and throw.

Gall KO/TKO at +900, I'm on board.
+900 ??? Holy cow. This has a very good chance to hit
 
Even though neither guy has shown a great gas tank, I have to pick Sanchez & Yahya here. They’re just more skilled and has better technique.

What the hell is Markus Perez even doing out there. He’s gotta be one of the goofiest fighters in the UFC. I don’t think he’s going to even have the ability to pressure Andrew Sanchez for a finish as he’s got no fundamental striking technique. I think Sanchez will outstrike and outwrestle him as long as he’s not stupid enough to gas himself out like he usually does. But +100 is the main reason why I’m playing him.

As for Yahya, I don’t think Sanders will be able to fight his fight against Yahya. It’ll be a grappling match on Rani’s terms, unless Sanders can make it to the 3rd and capitalize on a gassed out Yahya. Either way, I got submission or 29-28 for the black belt at another pick-em odds.
 
As for Yahya, I don’t think Sanders will be able to fight his fight against Yahya. It’ll be a grappling match on Rani’s terms, unless Sanders can make it to the 3rd and capitalize on a gassed out Yahya. Either way, I got submission or 29-28 for the black belt at another pick-em odds.

sanders is pretty gassy himself, apparently he has a gigantic weight cut.
 
I should have bet more on Barbarena KO at +105. It's -165 now. If the rationale on the ML being so wide is that Jake is truly shot, (I think he is) then + money on Barb KO was crazy value. Might still be value at current price honestly.
 
I should have bet more on Barbarena KO at +105. It's -165 now. If the rationale on the ML being so wide is that Jake is truly shot, (I think he is) then + money on Barb KO was crazy value. Might still be value at current price honestly.

His ITD is at an ugly -145 lol you’d only be screwing your self @ -165.

sanders is pretty gassy himself, apparently he has a gigantic weight cut.

He def should’ve finished Williams and even let him back into the fight. Not a good look. They both were gassed.
 
@raketmannen @MrShady @MT6ix
I watched some tape... I gotta say Im going small with Moraga as the underdog here.

If Fig stands and trade he loses most of the time. I think he needs to make it a grappling battle which I think he can.

While Moraga comes from a wrestling background his overall grappling (specially defense) is not that special... A key for him is to avoid ending with his back against the fence. But he has some good scrambles and if he finds himself in top position he should be able to score points by riding until the end of the round.

I think experience, cardio and fight IQ can play a big factor here and Moraga has the edge in all those areas. Also I think he has cleaner striking and throws more volume. He looked really good since he left that 3 fight losing streak and all the retirement talk in the past.

Much less important but:
This is Figs first fight outside Brazil for what it worths.
Also while he may be undefeated (and that usually affect the odds) but I thought he lost to Brooks (not that Brooks and Moraga have much in common) so I dont see that undefeated aura on him.

Damn I feel so rusty after like 2 years without watching tape or anything. Im ready to eat a few crows in this card but Im happy to be back.

I would cap Moraga as a small favorite here but Im not going to claim Im a big shot or a sharp bettor... this is just a humble opinion and my 2 cents.
Hey man, I haven't posted here in very long time and just mostly glance these threads here and there, but saw that you said your back in the mma betting game and are on Moraga so I had to chime in on some of your points which I agree with. Also this mma drought is getting to me which has brought me here lol.

Pretty much all of the points you mentioned I agree. Also not sure why people think Fig is the better striker. He is powerful and has some tricky moves but he throws a lot from the hip without setting shots up and anyone with good foot work can see that coming from a mile away, which Moraga has. Watch round 2/3 against Brooks and you can see him missing shots from miles away when Brooks would simply angle off to the side. Outside of a chase down flurry in round 3 he missed a good bit. Moraga showed good footwork in his last fight against Reis. If he can use great foot work here and angle off to the sides and stay away from backing up to the fence from Fig's forward pressure then he should put himself in a great spot to win this. Also Fig has pressured in some fights and just sat back and waited to counter in others so also depends on which Fig shows up. Moraga has the better and quicker hands but power goes to Fig. Fig has no great wins on his record, Beltran win and Moraes doesn't impress me much and I did think he lost to Brooks. Beltran was coming into that fight with a heavy heart as someone close to him passed before the fight (can't remember who now) and Moraes was fighting his second UFC fight and still green in areas. Also he didn't use much footwork which opened up that strike that dropped Moraes. Step up for Fig here and fighting outside of Brazil for the first time are factors as well. Moraga can be taken down and that's how I see Fig winning if he does. Fig likes the body lock takedowns when he gets you against the fence but once again all comes back to if Moraga can stay away from the fence I think he is good here. It's possible Fig waits for Moraga to throw and duck under for the body lock and push him to the fence that way, but Moraga manages distance well at the same time. Moraga seems to mentally have his head back in the game which is why I think he looked good against Reis at times during his last fight. You can argue that Reis is a better and more rentless wrestler than Fig too. The threat of Moraga's guillotine is there too if he decides to shoot for a double leg. He did against Moraes and Moraes locked up a guillotine but Fig turned him as they dropped and to the side and got out of it.

I cap it at Moraga a slight favorite too so I had to jump on Moraga at +155 when it came out. Good luck bro!
 
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His ITD is at an ugly -145 lol you’d only be screwing your self @ -165.



He def should’ve finished Williams and even let him back into the fight. Not a good look. They both were gassed.

LOL yeah good catch. I'm actually hitting that ITD now. Thanks man.
 
Yahya is easy money here. Sanders has been taken down and nearly arm triangled by way less grapplers and less tenacious chain wrestlers. Yahya's tds are quite good for a BJJ guy. I love his sub line and his moneyline. Yahya all day.
 
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