UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

Yahya is easy money here. Sanders has been taken down and nearly arm triangled by way less grapplers and less tenacious chain wrestlers. Yahya's tds are quite good for a BJJ guy. I love his sub line and his moneyline. Yahya all day.

Agree. He has about 8-10 minutes of cardio where he can really show how dominant his MMA grappling is. But he's tough as hell too so even if he gassed hard he will still hang in there for rd 3 and most likely win the dec 2 rounds to 1. That's if he doesn't get the sub early on.
 
Agree. He has about 8-10 minutes of cardio where he can really show how dominant his MMA grappling is. But he's tough as hell too so even if he gassed hard he will still hang in there for rd 3 and most likely win the dec 2 rounds to 1. That's if he doesn't get the sub early on.

Another thing is that even if he has trouble getting takedowns for extended periods, he actually does not get tagged on the feet very easily. He avoids strikes well. Also Sanders does not close distance well to land strikes. This is an obvious play to me. Yahya has not been finished for ten years and he is going against a guy who could not put away Patrick Williams. Sanders' finishing ability is way overrated going into this fight and I do not see him effectively sprawling and brawling his way to a decision.
 
His ITD is at an ugly -145 lol you’d only be screwing your self @ -165.
Betsafe got it the opposite lol, KO +100 ITD -217. Barberena got 9 KOs and 2 subs in his career and Ellenberger only lost twice to sub, weird line, for sure betting it
 
I actually took a shot on Ellenberger KO +865. If he wins it will more than likely be a KO, he should have plenty of motivation here as this fights personal (Barb KO'd his little bro Joe years back and Joe has that sad story with some rare disease), and Sage was having success using his athleticism to burst forward and land big shots in rd1. Also this is 100% speculative, but he has nothing to lose if he wants to try his hand on the secret sauce again. I get Jake is shot, but +865 is worth it to me.
 
I actually took a shot on Ellenberger KO +865. If he wins it will more than likely be a KO, he should have plenty of motivation here as this fights personal (Barb KO'd his little bro Joe years back and Joe has that sad story with some rare disease), and Sage was having success using his athleticism to burst forward and land big shots in rd1. Also this is 100% speculative, but he has nothing to lose if he wants to try his hand on the secret sauce again. I get Jake is shot, but +865 is worth it to me.

I think Jake's toughness and power is being underrated here. He got KO'd by a couple strong strikers, and took a body shot in the Saunders fight that can take out anyone if placed right. I remember him taking some knees to the head that fight with seemingly no issue, and he hung in there against Masvidal after taking a lot of damage. He can definitely still swing pretty hard, and I'd argue his striking looks better and more powerful than most aging fighters in recent memory. I'd rather go small on a Jake KO than put any significant amount on Barb KO.
 
I think Jake's toughness and power is being underrated here. He got KO'd by a couple strong strikers, and took a body shot in the Saunders fight that can take out anyone if placed right. I remember him taking some knees to the head that fight with seemingly no issue, and he hung in there against Masvidal after taking a lot of damage. He can definitely still swing pretty hard, and I'd argue his striking looks better and more powerful than most aging fighters in recent memory. I'd rather go small on a Jake KO than put any significant amount on Barb KO.

The severe beatings Jake has taken make it more, and not less, likely that his chin is gone. And his somewhat slurred speech is a red flag too. The knee to the body wasn't that big and Jake crumbled instantly too. Plus his body changed a lot post USADA-yet another red flag.

Barbarena has never been KO'd either to my knowledge.
 
The severe beatings Jake has taken make it more, and not less, likely that his chin is gone. And his somewhat slurred speech is a red flag too. The knee to the body wasn't that big and Jake crumbled instantly too. Plus his body changed a lot post USADA-yet another red flag.

Barbarena has never been KO'd either to my knowledge.

Yeah I feel you, but I'm looking at how the fights really went. Perry and Wonderboy are the only ones to legit KO him recently. It's hard to gauge how the knee really was against Saunders, and the Masvidal loss came from a leg injury. IIRC he took some good damage in all of those fights and stayed in there. I'm not sure if Barb really matches fighters like Perry in his power striking.

Not trying to bank on a Jake KO lol. I just think the trust in a Barb one is being overrated
 
Yeah I feel you, but I'm looking at how the fights really went. Perry and Wonderboy are the only ones to legit KO him recently. It's hard to gauge how the knee really was against Saunders, and the Masvidal loss came from a leg injury. IIRC he took some good damage in all of those fights and stayed in there. I'm not sure if Barb really matches fighters like Perry in his power striking.

Not trying to bank on a Jake KO lol. I just think the trust in a Barb one is being overrated

The Masvidal TKO actually came from Jake getting his toe stuck in the fence, not a leg injury
 
The Masvidal TKO actually came from Jake getting his toe stuck in the fence, not a leg injury

True but it was pretty early in the fight. Pretty sure Mas would have gotten him at some point.

Maybe Jake surprises us all but man I gotta see it to believe it. Too many signs point to him being done.
 
True but it was pretty early in the fight. Pretty sure Mas would have gotten him at some point.

Maybe Jake surprises us all but man I gotta see it to believe it. Too many signs point to him being done.

The Mas toe thing is what kept me from betting Barb.

Jake is only 33. There’s a good chance he is toast, but its not certain. That Saunders body shot KO was a bad look for him, but anybody would get dunzo’d by those Perry elbows and losing a round to Mas says little about his ability to hang with Barb.

If you pretend Mas was a decision loss instead of KO he has a little inkling of hope of life
 
The Mas toe thing is what kept me from betting Barb.

Jake is only 33. There’s a good chance he is toast, but its not certain. That Saunders body shot KO was a bad look for him, but anybody would get dunzo’d by those Perry elbows and losing a round to Mas says little about his ability to hang with Barb.

If you pretend Mas was a decision loss instead of KO he has a little inkling of hope of life
He wasn't just losing a round, Masvidal was completely piecing him up on the feet, swarmed him against the cage and dropped him, Herb was about to step in and stop it. I doubt Jake would've survived another 12 mintues in there against Masvidal, his face was really busted up considering he only fought for half a round
 
Last edited:
He wasn't just losing a round, Masvidal was completely piecing him up on the feet, swarmed him against the cage and dropped him, Herb was about to step in and stop it. I doubt Jake would've survived another 12 mintues in there against Masvidal, his face was really busted up considering he only fought for half a round

Agreed. I think Masvidal almost surely would have stopped him in that fight.

Still though, at these prices I’m not touching Barberena in any fashion. If I bet the fight I’d rather take a small shot at Jake KO like Stunna mentioned. No value to be found on Barb’s lines IMO.
 
The Mas toe thing is what kept me from betting Barb.

Jake is only 33. There’s a good chance he is toast, but its not certain. That Saunders body shot KO was a bad look for him, but anybody would get dunzo’d by those Perry elbows and losing a round to Mas says little about his ability to hang with Barb.

If you pretend Mas was a decision loss instead of KO he has a little inkling of hope of life

I mean, I fully admit the optics are playing a role. Jake's body changing post-USADA and they way he slurs a bit now are for sure factors I'm taking into account. Maybe I shouldn't be, not sure.
 
I mean, I fully admit the optics are playing a role. Jake's body changing post-USADA and they way he slurs a bit now are for sure factors I'm taking into account. Maybe I shouldn't be, not sure.

Nah I think you should absolutely be concerned about him. I just don't think there's the same comparison between him and 40 year old post-USADA Vitor. His brain and body might turn to mush soon but he's definitely got some of his toughness left.
 
Besides Gaethje I'm not seeing too much value on this card.

After initial tape watching of Sanchez vs Perez I was very excited about Sanchez at near even odds as Perez' only skill that is above average is his BJJ and he is somewhat competent grappling/wrestling against the cage(and even then its not eye popping by any means). But Sanchez has gassed hard and shit the bed in later rounds in his recent fights. After watching tape, IMO Perez skill wise is really quite poor, but seems like a tough guy who keeps grinding to win till the final bell even if he gasses, which might lead to a late submission on an exhausted Sanchez. Perez is one of those guys that almost looks comfortable in bad situations and just goes to work with what the opponent is giving him. Sanchez seems like the complete opposite, he looks like a talented fighter from the opening bell, but he gasses and seems to lose all composure quite quickly when things start going south. Skill wise this matchup is Sanchez all day, but in terms of how each man composes themselves in the cage its a bad matchup for Sanchez. However, I am encouraged by Sanchez training at Tri Star since his last fight. Sanchez' recent knockout losses dont worry me too much for this particular fight even though Sanchez defense goes out the window when he gets tired, as most of Perez' strikes are meh non-head kicks + bad spinning shit and he rarely throws hands, pretty ho-hum last generation traditional Muay Thai stuff and not done particularly impressively. I still may take a small stab at Sanchez ML, I cant help but think hes going to gas again but he is the much better fighter and even if Sanchez does gas idk if Perez can submit someone from a solid wrestling background. If Sanchez gasses hard early or hard enough in round 2 Perez also might be able to grind out the last 2 rounds.
 
I just watched tape on Faria/Calderwood. I think the line should be even.

Calderwood traditional Muay Thai striker who uses a lot of inside kicks/swing kicks and push kicks to keep her opponents at a distance and score points. Doesn't throw a lot of combos, typical of some Muay Thai fighters where the kicking game develops but the boxing doesn't. Decent in the clinch but looks very vulnerable on the ground.

Faria pretty good striker with a diverse striking attack, she impressed me on the feet against Jessica Eye with her striking, head kicks and aggression. She looks to have some issues with stronger grapplers but definitely will have the big grappling advantage against Calderwood.

I think Faria can get inside of the kicking range game of Calderwood and score points and do damage. If Faria can get the fight to the ground she should be able to submit Calderwood but it looks like Faria's takedowns are muscling opponents down and not with technique and Calderwood is going up to flyweight and not fighting at strawweight anymore so she shouldn't be as drained from the weight cut which concerns me a little backing Faria.

I was a little late grabbing Faria ML @ +138 but how do you guys see the fight playing out? I think the line is off.
 
Re: Yahya/Sanders

Gone back and forth on this. Initially liked Sanders, then I saw Yahya's slow improvements standing up, his cardio being decent against Soto & Doane, and now I am flipping back to Luke.

While a dangerous fight for Luke, I think he's a better striker who can out-scramble Yahya if he needs to. Luke may not be as slick as Soto on the mat, but I think he's the better athlete with a better chin (compared to Soto), which will surely help.

Rani doesn't strike me as a one-shot, one-kill type of sub guy that can get you anywhere, and catch Luke like Alcantara did. Lately, Rani needs that dominant position to make headway and work towards a sub. But Briones & Doane never had the chops to avoid the ground like Luke can, and if you can avoid the ground, you can wear down Rani. I just see Sanders being a tougher version of Joe Soto here.
 
Re: Yahya/Sanders

Gone back and forth on this. Initially liked Sanders, then I saw Yahya's slow improvements standing up, his cardio being decent against Soto & Doane, and now I am flipping back to Luke.

While a dangerous fight for Luke, I think he's a better striker who can out-scramble Yahya if he needs to. Luke may not be as slick as Soto on the mat, but I think he's the better athlete with a better chin (compared to Soto), which will surely help.

Rani doesn't strike me as a one-shot, one-kill type of sub guy that can get you anywhere, and catch Luke like Alcantara did. Lately, Rani needs that dominant position to make headway and work towards a sub. But Briones & Doane never had the chops to avoid the ground like Luke can, and if you can avoid the ground, you can wear down Rani. I just see Sanders being a tougher version of Joe Soto here.

Rani has dramatically improved his ability to get fights to the mat. I'd be surprised if Luke is able to stay off his back, esp early on.
 
Yahya is easy money here. Sanders has been taken down and nearly arm triangled by way less grapplers and less tenacious chain wrestlers. Yahya's tds are quite good for a BJJ guy. I love his sub line and his moneyline. Yahya all day.

Who almost arm triangled Luke?

FWIW I tend to agree with you. Even though Yahya is a year older I also think Luke is in greater decline. He looked like a mess both during the Williams fight and in the post fight interview.
 
Back
Top