UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa

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Ben Nguyen = Easy Money

Reis needs to get out the game, not the same fighter anymore, damage meter has filled up
 
Dianabol said:
Ben Nguyen = Easy Money

Reis needs to get out the game, not the same fighter anymore, damage meter has filled up
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Yeah. Also rate Nguyen as like -150 or so. Not confident in Reis being able to consistently get him down, and Nguyen will probably easily outstrike him. JDS also the spot, but probably not worth hitting him till after R1 just in case of a Tuivasa swarm.
 
The line on Hunt is almost back to evens after hunt being favorite. I just don't see Willis being able to win at even odds.

On the feet his striking is below Hunts level even tho hunt is in decline. When he fights it appears his arms are really short as he continually comes up short of the target. Nothing I can see that will challenge a fighter as experienced as hunt I can see Willis being countered and cracked as he comes in.

Willis has flash takedowns and could wrestle fuck Hunt a little but there is no sub threat so I'm picking hunt to roll over and stand back up.
Both gas tanks are poor so even each other out. Only last year Hunt went 4 rounds before knocking out Black Beast.

Hopefully hunt continues to fade at the bookies
 
Gugabe said:
Yeah. Also rate Nguyen as like -150 or so. Not confident in Reis being able to consistently get him down, and Nguyen will probably easily outstrike him. JDS also the spot, but probably not worth hitting him till after R1 just in case of a Tuivasa swarm.
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Yeah Nguyen should hold a big speed and striking advantage. Nyguen a brown belt in BJJ, solid TDD too. Also like him fighting in his adopted home.
 
LOL if you bet Mark Hunt at this point

Oldest fighter in the UFC with one of the worst records in the UFC
 
I love JDS. Took him at -150 and now at -135 and Im happy as fuck. I dont think Tuivasa has much for him.

Some of Nguyen at -140.

Not touching Mark Hunt as he is like 44 years old. Tempted to go small on Shogun at +292
 
JDS -139 at BetOnline vs Tuivasa. Can't resist that. Huge step up in competition for Tuivasa. Bet it to win 4 units.
 
Justin Willis is A good play at this odds because he Has a big chance to win this.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
I love JDS. Took him at -150 and now at -135 and Im happy as fuck. I dont think Tuivasa has much for him.

Some of Nguyen at -140.

Not touching Mark Hunt as he is like 44 years old. Tempted to go small on Shogun at +292
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Sounds weird but Shogun actually looked good and dangerous in the Smith fight, I liked his movement and handspeed. It was an excellent counter right hand from Smith off the backfoot that he just didn't see coming that got him. On reflection that was a really high level counter punch and Smith showed fine balance finishing the fight. He never loses balance and throws the right strikes. Here we have Pedro whos a bit lumbering and may not have the highest fight IQ in the world. He will bang with Shogun and try to create a KO, he's not really a counter puncher who can let the KO come to him like Smith did.

Totally different dynamic and I'm writing the Smith fight off when I look at this fight. At the odds, I'll take a stab at Shogun
 
Great match up for JDS, should out box Tuivasa easily

Will be profiting huge on this card
 
Tuivasa nearly lost against Arlovski, JDS is a bad match up for him
 
There is definitely a hype train behind Tuivasa. JDS will be too skilled for him but would be happy to lose a few dollars to see another shoey
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Justin Willis is A good play at this odds because he Has a big chance to win this.
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I'm all about fading Mark Hunt but Willis didn't impressive me in his last fight. Gassing and losing a round to Sherman is not good. I worry Willis will get stuck in a stand up fight vs Hunt, IDK if he has the gas to wrestle Hunt for 3 rounds and Hunt has decent TDD. Hunt will probably find a way to lose as usual though
 
shoot just realized that my book does not offer TUF betting. well here is my initial shit predictions.


junior dos santos v. tuivasa (w)

(w) mauricio rua v pedro

(w) hunt v justin willis

(w) jake Matthews v tony martin

suman mokhtarian v sodiq yusuff (no tape, stay away)

jim crute v paul craig (no tape, stay away)

only betting on 4 possible fights. This is my initial gut feeling mixed with psuedo science and I havent watched their tapes yet. (step 1/3)
 
1.5U JDS @ 1.70, JDS is at his best vs slow plodding strikers. This should be a relatively easy win.
 
Shoulder said:
1.5U JDS @ 1.70, JDS is at his best vs slow plodding strikers. This should be a relatively easy win.
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I'm putting about that on JDS now at that price, then looking to double it live on JDS after R1. I feel like Tuivasa'll come out aggressive and that it's all JDS after about 5 or so minutes. Good chance Tai wins the first, though, and small chance that he just gets the blitz KO.
 
Dianabol said:
I'm all about fading Mark Hunt but Willis didn't impressive me in his last fight. Gassing and losing a round to Sherman is not good. I worry Willis will get stuck in a stand up fight vs Hunt, IDK if he has the gas to wrestle Hunt for 3 rounds and Hunt has decent TDD. Hunt will probably find a way to lose as usual though
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I agree, he couldn't put away that bum Sherman and ate a lot of clean shots from him. But on the other hand Hunt looked equally unimpressive against Oleinik. This being infront of his homecrowd in New Zealand could maybe be a motivating factor for him, and help with the scorecards if it's a close decision. He looked solid against Lewis and wasn't looking too bad against Blaydes either, a good wrestler like that is just a rough match up for him.
I'd expect more money to come in on Willis though, people will fade Hunt for his last performance and his age. Might get him at +130-140, I'd take a shot at him then
 
raketmannen said:
I agree, he couldn't put away that bum Sherman and ate a lot of clean shots from him. But on the other hand Hunt looked equally unimpressive against Oleinik. This being infront of his homecrowd in New Zealand could maybe be a motivating factor for him, and help with the scorecards if it's a close decision. He looked solid against Lewis and wasn't looking too bad against Blaydes either, a good wrestler like that is just a rough match up for him.
I'd expect more money to come in on Willis though, people will fade Hunt for his last performance and his age. Might get him at +130-140, I'd take a shot at him then
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I still regret not taking the shot on Oleynik, he was like +220 at one point, such easy money.

Hunt is fighting in Australia not NZ but the Aussies cheer for him just as much. Hunt looked good against Lewis but Lewis' back was apparently super messed up in that fight, Lewis didn't look like himself. Had one good moment in the Bladyes fight where he hurt Bladyes in the 1st round but then got wrestled.

Totally possible Hunt could win here though, Willis is green and he's very beatable, it's a close fight I think, I want no part of it.
 
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