Underdog Predictions (5-4)

xMaxPower

Red Belt
Joined
Jan 5, 2013
Messages
7,932
Reaction score
467
I will post a betting slip for everyone of my picks as well as an analysis of why I think they will win. I dont always make underdog prediction threads, but when I do I've been right most of the time. With all my bets, you will notice one thing in common... I don't go by fighter history, I go by their fight styles.

Here is my track record:
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...ake-nate-at-300-over-michael-johnson.3061263/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/b...n-thompson-285-beats-johny-hendricks.3147599/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/underdog-prediction-episode-3-a-lock.3184335/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/youd-have-to-be-stupid-to-not-bet-on-tito-175.3453617/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...o-not-bet-on-korean-zombie-160.3463445/page-2

My Losses:
I somehow forgot about Larkins Heavy leg kicks when analyzing. I thought Nate would be able to get Conor down at least once. I was wrong. This is the only prediction thread that I have made that was wrong.
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/youd-have-to-be-stupid-to-not-parlay-nate-and-magny.3318015/


1. Cormier @ +105 vs Anthony Johnson
This is not a bold pick. I don't even understand why this is a pick'em fight. Cormier should be something like a -250 favorite. The only way Rumble is going to win is by a KO early. His head meuvment will be the key to his victory in this fight as it'll avoid Rumbles big shots. Cormier also has an amazing chin. Even in the first fight with Rumble, he got knocked down and was sent halfway across the cage, but he got straight back up and was not on wobbly legs. I have a theory that he's able to take big shots without getting rocked because he barely has a neck, thus less torque on his head when getting punched. Cormier's boxing is underrated and has that pop to his straight punches. He's also ragdolled heavyweights, has better cardio, and last but not least, he already made Rumble quit. Not a bold pick, I no... but with Cormier being the underdog, It's an obvious pick.

2. Maia @+105 vs Masvidal
The only thing that concerns me about Maia is old age catching up to him like Jaracre. But unlike Jaracre, Maia looks exactly the same as his previous fight where he dominated Condit.
The size difference is a huge factor. Masvidal is coming from the LW division while Maia is coming from the MW divsion. Most importantly, Masvidal's TDD is very overrated. There are fighters such as Tyron claiming he has insane TDD.
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/masvidals-tdd-is-overrated-gif-heavy-thread.3514083/
This thread disproves this. Maia should have no problem getting this to the ground and secure either a sub or decision win.

3. Mitrione @+113 vs Fedor
Mitrione has a 20 lbs size advantage and a 5 inch reach advantage. He pretty much only throws straight punches which is good thing considering his reach advantage. If it goes on the ground, I think Matt will be able to control him as the size will be too much for Fedor. The only way I see Fedor winning this is if Bellator rigs another fight. But Fedor can also time a lazy jab and counter with a looping overhand. I dont think thats going to happen, Fedor is 40 and Majority'd Fabio Maldonado who almost finnished fedor in the first.

4. Weidman @+145 vs Gastelum
Weidman is just straight up to big. Yes, Weidman is on a 3 fight losing streak, all by finishes... but they're all against some of the best fighters in the UFC. And, yes Kelvin has looked like a monster against Kennedy and Belfort, but those guys are old as fuck and have a 74 inch reach which is enough for Kelvin to get on the inside and land the 1 2. Weidman has a 78 inch reach... thats a 6.5 inch reach advantage over Kelvins 71.5 inch reach. His main weapon in his 1 2 will be way less effective in this fight because his punches have to travel an extra 4 inches then his past 2 opponents. If it goes to the ground I think it'll be Weidman getting the takedowns as he has one of the best single legs in the game. The single leg should be easy to grab since Kelvin has to close the distance and there will be no threat of a knee because of his short stubby legs.


5. Valentina Schevchenko +110 vs Amanda Nunes
Y'all gonna be thinking... "wait... you're predicting the loser from the first fight to win?". Yes... yes I am. This fight is a little bit like Max vs Aldo... Max being Shevchenko, and Aldo being Nunes. Max and Shevchenko both have really good cardio and are both amazing strikers because they have the ability to see things in slow motion, as in they see strikes coming and react to them faster then most. Aldo and Nunes are similar because they both rely on their explosiveness to win fights, but because of this they fade in the later rounds. Shevchenko might lose the first round (but it will be at a cost of Nunes Gas tank) and maybe even the second, but momentum will shift and Shevchenko will win the later 3 if she hasn't already finished her in the later rounds. Nunes did well with her trips in the first fight which won her the first 2 rounds. These basic trips will be easy to prepare for, for her second bout... hell, she solved her tripping game in round 3 when she countered it. Even with Nunes having top control for a good portion of the fight, Shevchenko was still the fresher fighter in the 3rd round and dominated that round. Shevchenko will look to counter the entire fight will win by technical striking and cardio.

simply put, valentina didn't push the pace for amanda to get tired. Amanda, though she hardly landed any punches like I was saying above, she played it smart and paced herself. TBH I still think shevchenko won... but I should have seen it coming that since shevchenko is a counterstriker, that would allow Nunes the option to pace herself. Wont make that mistake again.

6. Neil Magny @+170 vs Rafael Dos Anjos

Lets just get right to it... why RDA wont leg kick Neil Magny to death:
i) 10 inch reach disadvantage. RDA's kicking range is inside Neil's punching range.
ii) RDA's legs are 3 inches shorter than Lorenz Larkin. Makes it hard for him to land the same leg kicks.
iii) Magny is Orthodox, while RDA is Southpaw which means RDA's left leg kick can only attack the inside of Magny's lead leg. Larkin was orthodox which is a big reason why he had his way with leg kicks. I've never seen a TKO with inside leg kicks.
iv) RDA can switch stance momentarily so he can land an outside leg kick like he was doing against Tony but thats very telegraphed. He also wont be able to do that all fight long and you need cumulative leg kicks to make an impact.

Clear gameplan for Neil Magny is to fight long and pressure. The pressure and making RDA go backwards make him unable to throw leg kicks or do that switch-stance-leg-kick. Neil is also the better wrestler, WAY bigger which will make him have the advantage against the cage and the ground. We've also seen Neils ability to attack and win a round off his back with Hendricks. Neil via his reach, his wrestling and being way bigger.

I underestimated RDA's BJJ. And he did that switch-stance-leg-kick that I was mentioning above... and one of them was apprently enough to get Magny to the ground... in hindsight, I have no idea why i picked Magny, because I new RDA was capable of doing that but I guess I didnt think it would be that effective =/

7.Brunson +140 vs Jacare
Jaracre wont be able to get the takedown. Brunsons too athletic and his takedown defense is one of the best. I believe that Brunson can win a technical fight. He has the better outside game and has the footwork to keep it at that range. He doesn't have to rush in and go for the kill. He has a 7 inch reach advantage. Use it. Use it until he hurts Jaracre, THEN go in for the kill, instead of going for the kill right off the bat and getting countered and KO'd. Jaracre's physique was not the same when he fought Whittaker also and he's much older now. Brunson's only the underdog because he got KO'd the first fight when Jaracre was in his prime.

I just flat out blew that one. Thought Brunson would be the better striker, since he's the younger, faster, longer fighter. Definitely didn't see the headkick coming, and niether did Brunson.


8.Rockhold +130 vs Romero
What Rockhold has to do is to keep distance, use teep kicks to the stomache to gas Romero, and the left calf kick to mess up his explosive movements.
Luke is one of the best on the ground, ESPECIALLY the top game. One of the best top games in the UFC. Romero gets taken down a lot, but he also springs back up like no one else. Lukes top control is insane though, so I'm not sure what will prevail. Luke will have a huge size advantage, I can see him getting one of those leverage takedowns where he gets the underhooks in the clinch and just lifts and trips the opponent. If Luke gets top control and holds it, the fight is done. The key to victory is keep it at kicking range with his footwork, gas romero, and eventually try to get a take down and finish the much smaller opponent. Yoel has to catch Rockhold with something Explosive. I dont see a specific strategy for Yoel to win. He can't stay in boxing range where Rockhold is weak, because he'll end up gassing, he'll have to chill back and wait for openings, and while hes waiting Rockhold will be teeping, and kicking.

ahhh wow. look at the bolded. bad call on my end. He CAN stay in boxing range, because he can apparently parry all of Rockholds punches (thus conserving his energy while walking him down) and walk him down untill he gets him near the cage and finds an opening. You dont see that too often. Crazy.

9. Volkov+ 175 vs Werdum
Volkov will have a big reach advantage and volkov knows how to use the reach. I think his takedown defense will be good enough to keep it standing. Volkov will outpoint Werdum for most of the fight. Werdums striking is great, and some of you think I'm underestimating it. But the difference here is Volkov knows how to maintain distance. And even if it does go in the clinch, his knees are nasty. Werdums knees will be less effective because of how tall volkov is.
 
Last edited:
not a bad track record tbh, good job bud.

<mma4>

unless you left out a bunch of predictions where you were wrong lol.
 
Anderson & Tony are good picks. I would bet on those two.
 
I have no wrong predictions. When I do make a prediction it is on an epic fight.

It's nice to see others try. ;)
 
You provide solid analysis that justifies your reasoning. The other thread offered some sports psychology bromides and one fight pick where the heavy favorite was chosen, and six or seven basketball/soccer picks. Then after his soccer picks lost he swore to reset the thread and start again. Your thread is much higher quality than that already.

Good luck in your venture, though I firmly believe that luck is an absolute requirement in order to correctly pick twenty underdog fights.
 
Anderson is too arrogant and likes to try things that he shouldn't do. He might go hands down and full matrix....and take a nap.

But good job, you're most probably right.
 
You provide solid analysis that justifies your reasoning. The other thread offered some sports psychology bromides and one fight pick where the heavy favorite was chosen, and six or seven basketball/soccer picks. Then after his soccer picks lost he swore to reset the thread and start again. Your thread is much higher quality than that already.

Good luck in your venture, though I firmly believe that luck is an absolute requirement in order to correctly pick twenty underdog fights.

Yah luck will have to be on my side for sure, but I will pick wisely.
 
Just check out UFC event fight lists and 'predict' the fighters who are on losing streaks, as underdogs? (If the other guy is on a winning streak)

{<huh}
 
"Anderson throws straight punches and Belfort throws looping punches"


Lol go to a gym man.
 
This thread wins..... especially if I win by copying your bets. I had money on Ferguson, then some extra on a khabib decision to cover my bet if it loses before the fight got cancelled. I wasn't sure about betting on Anderson as he looked really slow in his last fight but you seem to know what your talking about so fuck it, Im in.

I also predict Santos will beat Stripe.
 
I'm with you on Anderson, not necessarily on Ferguson.

Not to turn the thread into this lol. But for one thing wasn't Ferguson barely an underdog in the odds? I think Khabib's standup sucks, but there's no reason why he can't make it happen in the fight with the rest of his game. I wouldn't be too confident either way on it to put it in parlays.
 
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/g...ct-20-match-correctly-in-a-row.3490749/page-8

A remix to this thread.
I Have seen Truth77's thread on predicting 20 fights in a row and found it comical how his first pick was a -350 favorite. So with that being said, I will post a betting slip for everyone of my picks as well as an analysis of why I think they will win. I dont always make underdog prediction threads, but when I do I've been right most of the time. With all my bets, you will notice one thing in common... I don't go by fighter history, I go by their fight styles.

Finding underdogs that are actually favorites in my mind is a rare thing. Usually the odds makers get it right, so because of this, It might take a long time to get 20.

Here is my track record:
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...ake-nate-at-300-over-michael-johnson.3061263/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/b...n-thompson-285-beats-johny-hendricks.3147599/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/underdog-prediction-episode-3-a-lock.3184335/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/youd-have-to-be-stupid-to-not-bet-on-tito-175.3453617/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...o-not-bet-on-korean-zombie-160.3463445/page-2

My Losses:
I somehow forgot about Larkins Heavy leg kicks when analyzing. I thought Nate would be able to get Conor down at least once. I was wrong. This is the only prediction thread that I have made that was wrong.
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/youd-have-to-be-stupid-to-not-parlay-nate-and-magny.3318015/

So here it is:
1. Anderson vs Gastelum (speculating Anderson will be underdog based on the comments on sherdog)
Yes, Gastelum is on a tear, and yes Anderson is 1-4-1 in his past 6 with the last win being barely a win. But like I said before, styles makes fights. Unlike Belfort, Silva knows how to use his range with his punches. Belfort throws loops, Anderson throws straight. He will have a 6.5 in reach advantage against Gastelum. Gastelum will have a hard time landing his 1-2 that he spams over and over again because of this. Magny, who is nowhere near the level of Anderson in terms of striking was able to utilize his reach advantage to squeak out a victory. Anderson will not be doing the Matrix in this fight because that would be bad with someone with a short reach, and fast hands. He will stay on the outside and pick Gastelum apart. Anderson's take down defense has also gotten a lot better. A huge Brunson couldn't even get him to the ground.

2. Cucuy vs Khabib (if this eventually happens... hopefully it does)
I haven't been this confident with an underdog pick since Nate vs MJ. Cucuy just straight up has the standup. He has a 6 inch reach advantage, and a crisp jab. That's a path to victory in itself. If Khabib closes the distance he'll be walking into Cucuy's elbows. If Khabib does get it to the ground, Ferg is more than capable on the ground. Cucuy is not MJ. MJ is a novice on the ground compared to Cucuy. Cucuy can do a lot of damage with his elbows from the bottom. Also Cucuy does not tire out. Hes fought at a grueling pace for 5 rounds with RDA and was fresh after. Cant say the same about Khabib.

3. stay tuned...
Ferguson definitely slowed down in the RDA fight. RDA had his best success in rounds 4 and 5.
 
Well if those fights go down you'll be 0-2 so that's a good start
 
I'm saying fighters who are on losing streak, usually end up being the underdog.

Very true. I think this is key to finding good underdog picks.

EDIT: like weidman lol
 
Last edited:
"Anderson throws straight punches and Belfort throws looping punches"


Lol go to a gym man.

I mean, I can go more in depth but I just wanted to keep it simple or else people would go "TLDR" *inserts meme*.
 
Back
Top