http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/g...ct-20-match-correctly-in-a-row.3490749/page-8
A remix to this thread.
I Have seen Truth77's thread on predicting 20 fights in a row and found it comical how his first pick was a -350 favorite. So with that being said, I will post a betting slip for everyone of my picks as well as an analysis of why I think they will win. I dont always make underdog prediction threads, but when I do I've been right most of the time. With all my bets, you will notice one thing in common... I don't go by fighter history, I go by their fight styles.
Finding underdogs that are actually favorites in my mind is a rare thing. Usually the odds makers get it right, so because of this, It might take a long time to get 20.
Here is my track record:
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...ake-nate-at-300-over-michael-johnson.3061263/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/b...n-thompson-285-beats-johny-hendricks.3147599/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/underdog-prediction-episode-3-a-lock.3184335/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/youd-have-to-be-stupid-to-not-bet-on-tito-175.3453617/
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/y...o-not-bet-on-korean-zombie-160.3463445/page-2
My Losses:
I somehow forgot about Larkins Heavy leg kicks when analyzing. I thought Nate would be able to get Conor down at least once. I was wrong. This is the only prediction thread that I have made that was wrong.
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/youd-have-to-be-stupid-to-not-parlay-nate-and-magny.3318015/
So here it is:
1. Cormier @ +105 vs Anthony Johnson
This is not a bold pick. I don't even understand why this is a pick'em fight. Cormier should be something like a -250 favorite. The only way Rumble is going to win is by a KO early. His head meuvment will be the key to his victory in this fight as it'll avoid Rumbles big shots. Cormier also has an amazing chin. Even in the first fight with Rumble, he got knocked down and was sent halfway across the cage, but he got straight back up and was not on wobbly legs. I have a theory that he's able to take big shots without getting rocked because he barely has a neck, thus less torque on his head when getting punched. Cormier's boxing is underrated and has that pop to his straight punches. He's also ragdolled heavyweights, has better cardio, and last but not least, he already made Rumble quit. Not a bold pick, I no... but with Cormier being the underdog, It's an obvious pick.
2. Maia @+105 vs Masvidal
The only thing that concerns me about Maia is old age catching up to him like Jaracre. But unlike Jaracre, Maia looks exactly the same as his previous fight where he dominated Condit.
The size difference is a huge factor. Masvidal is coming from the LW division while Maia is coming from the MW divsion. Most importantly, Masvidal's TDD is very overrated. There are fighters such as Tyron claiming he has insane TDD.
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/masvidals-tdd-is-overrated-gif-heavy-thread.3514083/
This thread disproves this. Maia should have no problem getting this to the ground and secure either a sub or decision win.
3. Mitrione @+113 vs Fedor
Mitrione has a 20 lbs size advantage and a 5 inch reach advantage. He pretty much only throws straight punches which is good thing considering his reach advantage. If it goes on the ground, I think Matt will be able to control him as the size will be too much for Fedor. The only way I see Fedor winning this is if Bellator rigs another fight. But Fedor can also time a lazy jab and counter with a looping overhand. I dont think thats going to happen, Fedor is 40 and Majority'd Fabio Maldonado who almost finnished fedor in the first.
4. Weidman @+145 vs Gastelum
Weidman is just straight up to big. Yes, Weidman is on a 3 fight losing streak, all by finishes... but they're all against some of the best fighters in the UFC. And, yes Kelvin has looked like a monster against Kennedy and Belfort, but those guys are old as fuck and have a 74 inch reach which is enough for Kelvin to get on the inside and land the 1 2. Weidman has a 78 inch reach... thats a 6.5 inch reach advantage over Kelvins 71.5 inch reach. His main weapon in his 1 2 will be way less effective in this fight because his punches have to travel an extra 4 inches then his past 2 opponents. If it goes to the ground I think it'll be Weidman getting the takedowns as he has one of the best single legs in the game. The single leg should be easy to grab since Kelvin has to close the distance and there will be no threat of a knee because of his short stubby legs.
5. Valentina Schevchenko +110 vs Amanda Nunes
Y'all gonna be thinking... "wait... you're predicting the loser from the first fight to win?". Yes... yes I am. This fight is a little bit like Max vs Aldo... Max being Shevchenko, and Aldo being Nunes. Max and Shevchenko both have really good cardio and are both amazing strikers because they have the ability to see things in slow motion, as in they see strikes coming and react to them faster then most. Aldo and Nunes are similar because they both rely on their explosiveness to win fights, but because of this they fade in the later rounds. Shevchenko might lose the first round (but it will be at a cost of Nunes Gas tank) and maybe even the second, but momentum will shift and Shevchenko will win the later 3 if she hasn't already finished her in the later rounds. Nunes did well with her trips in the first fight which won her the first 2 rounds. These basic trips will be easy to prepare for, for her second bout... hell, she solved her tripping game in round 3 when she countered it. Even with Nunes having top control for a good portion of the fight, Shevchenko was still the fresher fighter in the 3rd round and dominated that round. Shevchenko will look to counter the entire fight will win by technical striking and cardio.
6. Neil Magny @+170 vs Rafael Dos Anjos
Lets just get right to it... why RDA wont leg kick Neil Magny to death:
i) 10 inch reach disadvantage. RDA's kicking range is inside Neil's punching range.
ii) RDA's legs are 3 inches shorter than Lorenz Larkin. Makes it hard for him to land the same leg kicks.
iii) Magny is Orthodox, while RDA is Southpaw which means RDA's left leg kick can only attack the inside of Magny's lead leg. Larkin was orthodox which is a big reason why he had his way with leg kicks. I've never seen a TKO with inside leg kicks.
iv) RDA can switch stance momentarily so he can land an outside leg kick like he was doing against Tony but thats very telegraphed. He also wont be able to do that all fight long and you need cumulative leg kicks to make an impact.
Clear gameplan for Neil Magny is to fight long and pressure. The pressure and making RDA go backwards make him unable to throw leg kicks or do that switch-stance-leg-kick. Neil is also the better wrestler, WAY bigger which will make him have the advantage against the cage and the ground. We've also seen Neils ability to attack and win a round off his back with Hendricks. Neil via his reach, his wrestling and being way bigger.
7. Cucuy @+160 vs Khabib (if this eventually happens... hopefully it does)
I haven't been this confident with an underdog pick since Nate vs MJ. Cucuy just straight up has the standup. He has a 6 inch reach advantage, and a crisp jab. That's a path to victory in itself. If Khabib closes the distance he'll be walking into Cucuy's elbows. If Khabib shoots, he's at risk at getting caught in a darce choke. If Khabib does get it to the ground, Ferg is more than capable on the ground. Cucuy is not MJ. MJ is a novice on the ground compared to Cucuy. Cucuy can do a lot of damage with his elbows from the bottom. Also Cucuy does not tire out. Hes fought at a grueling pace for 5 rounds with RDA and was fresh after. Cant say the same about Khabib. I will literally bet my entire betting balance on Cucuy if this fight ever happens.
If you think you've found a fight where the odds are completely off, let me know, and I'll look at tape, and I'll let you know what I think. There are a lot of fighter's that I'm not familiar with (like prelim fighters) so I could miss a lot of good underdogs. Help me find them and we can make money together!
