Venezuela, The Starving Socialist Dystopia (Part 1)

There is a bit of sarcasm in my first post. But the second one was written in good faith.

I have yet to hear a pluasable solution to the crises from anyone.

Stop currency and price controls.

That alone would stop the downward spiral into madness.
 
Crime is so bad in Venezuela, even soldiers are ordered to avoid driving at night
By Antonio Maria Delgado | November 28, 2017

Venezuela%20Crisis%20(3)

Soldiers stand atop an armored vehicle at the entrance of Fort Tiuna in Caracas, Venezuela

In crime-ridden Venezuela, the country's soldiers have been ordered to avoid traveling at night, using their cellphones in their cars and showing their military IDs.

The order, a “radiogram” obtained by el Nuevo Herald and confirmed by two retired generals, reflects the armed forces' concerns over the risks its personnel run on the streets of Venezuela, one of the most violent countries in the world.

Unlike other countries, members of the military in Venezuela attract thieves rather than scaring them away, said Antonio Rivero, one of the retired generals who confirmed the veracity of the document.

“This is a totally contradictory situation,” Rivero added. The document “admits that not even security officials, who should be armed … are safe in Venezuela.”

An estimated 282 police, soldiers, guards and other security personnel have been killed by criminals so far this year, according to the Due Process Foundation (DPF), a non-governmental organization that monitors crime.

The radiogram issued early this month by Adm. Remigio Ceballos, head of the armed forces' Strategic Operational command, orders all personnel to avoid driving at night.

It also bars them from places “of dubious reputation” or that pose a risk to their personal safety.

The soldiers and officers should also avoid “nighttime risks, using ATMs outside of shopping centers,” making “unnecessary stops” and “using cellphones” while driving — especially when stopped at traffic lights.

Hinting at the additional risks that military personnel run, Ceballos also ordered them to keep their military IDs separate from their personal documents.

“This measure is designed to avoid being identified as military personnel if approached by anti-social elements,” the order explained.


DPF spokesperson Donnagee Sandoval said that criminals have been targeting military personnel “to take their weapons, if not to carry out some vengeance.”

Robberies have become increasingly violent in Venezuela, and experts warn that the high number of unsolved cases has created a culture among criminals to shoot first and steal later.
About 28,480 Venezuelans were murdered in 2016, according to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory, giving the country a rate of 91.8 homicides per 100,000 people, compared to the U.S. rate of 5 per 100,000.

Javier Ignacio Mayorca, a journalist who has long investigated crime in Venezuela, said authorities already knew about the increased risks for security personnel.

“What's new here is the order,” Mayorca said from Caracas. “What they are doing is admitting to the existence of a problem. And that's interesting because to the outside world, the government insists that crime has dropped, that the problem is under control.”

Several reports had already pointed out that police and soldiers faced higher risks when they were off duty, especially if they were young.

That's why police have already banned agents with less than five years of service from carrying their weapons while off duty and even when on administrative duties.

But the military did not like that idea. “The armed forces did not follow suit because they determined that the weapon must go with the soldier, everywhere and at all times,” said Mayorca.

The order obtained by el Nuevo Herald shows they now realize they have a problem, he added.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article186888463.html
 
At this point, I actually think it will actually take a right wing dictator to restore order in Venezuela. I don't think a civilian government can do the job even if Maduro is out, since he damaged the civil institution and economy to the point of collapse.
 
Stop currency and price controls.

That alone would stop the downward spiral into madness.

That might be part of a plausible long term solution but is very risky in the short term. The very poor rely on the price controls and food subsides to survive. Without the price controls they suffer greatly and likely take out their anger on the police and upper classes. One would be betting that food prices stabilize quickly before or in spite of civil war and the shock isn't that great.


Even if that worked and reduced inflation, there would still be millions of poor people. a weak health infrastructure a crippled economy, organized crime gangs with more guns than the police and so on. There would still be a crises.

Any solution would involve much more than ending price controls.
 
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At this point, I actually think it will actually take a right wing dictator to restore order in Venezuela. I don't think a civilian government can do the job even if Maduro is out, since he damaged the civil institution and economy to the point of collapse.

The military is already partly running the country and doing a bad job of it. Also the military is partly controlled by the mafia and organized crime.

Ironically the failure of the left in Venezuela is so total the right can not capitalize on it.
 
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That might be part of a plausible long term solution but is very risky in the short term. The very poor rely on the price controls and food subsides to survive. Without the price controls they suffer greatly and likely take out their anger on the police and upper classes. One would be betting that food prices stabilize quickly before or in spite of civil war and the shock isn't that great.


Even if that worked and reduced inflation, there would still be millions of poor people. a weak health infrastructure a crippled economy, organized crime gangs with more guns than the police and so on. There would still be a crises.

Any solution would involve much more than ending price controls.

1.- The poor dont rely on price controls, price controls created the scarcity in the first place.

2.- Thats why i said "stop the downward spiral" it wouldnt fix Venezuela overnight but it would stop it from getting worse.
 
Crime is so bad in Venezuela, even soldiers are ordered to avoid driving at night
By Antonio Maria Delgado | November 28, 2017

Venezuela%20Crisis%20(3)

Soldiers stand atop an armored vehicle at the entrance of Fort Tiuna in Caracas, Venezuela










http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article186888463.html

This is fucking insane. Being a soldier makes you a target? I guess their firearm is worth more than the average annual salary.

28,000 murders in a county with 31 million people. Unbelievable. The US has a population of almost 330 million and had around 15,000 murders in 2016 I think.

As laughable as it sounds, the citizens of North Korea are better off than Venezuela right now.

Any predictions on when/if Maduro is violently overthrown?
 
1.- The poor dont rely on price controls, price controls created the scarcity in the first place.

2.- Thats why i said "stop the downward spiral" it wouldnt fix Venezuela overnight but it would stop it from getting worse.

You don't think ending price controls is risky at all or might produce temporary pain for the poor? In most other cases there is a shock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_therapy_(economics)

In any case that's kind of unfortunate there isn't a broader solution on offer. I don't see how the opposition can take power and hold it without a solution.
 
You don't think ending price controls is risky at all or might produce temporary pain for the poor? In most other cases there is a shock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_therapy_(economics)

In any case that's kind of unfortunate there isn't a broader solution on offer. I don't see how the opposition can take power and hold it without a solution.

I dont think you understand what is happening in Venezuela.

Imagine if the government was forcing oil companies to sell gas at $1 per gallon.

What do you think would happen?
 
You don't think ending price controls is risky at all or might produce temporary pain for the poor? In most other cases there is a shock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_therapy_(economics)

In any case that's kind of unfortunate there isn't a broader solution on offer. I don't see how the opposition can take power and hold it without a solution.

Guy, price controls create the scarcity.

Like Rod just said, I don't think you're appreciating what's going on down there. The poor are already fucked. Just words though, here's a quick look from last year. Its even worse now....

 
This is fucking insane. Being a soldier makes you a target? I guess their firearm is worth more than the average annual salary.

28,000 murders in a county with 31 million people. Unbelievable. The US has a population of almost 330 million and had around 15,000 murders in 2016 I think.

As laughable as it sounds, the citizens of North Korea are better off than Venezuela right now.

Any predictions on when/if Maduro is violently overthrown?
When they run out of dog/cat meat to feed the military probably
 
I dont think you understand what is happening in Venezuela.

Imagine if the government was forcing oil companies to sell gas at $1 per gallon.

What do you think would happen?

People would over use petroleum products and drive gas guzzling cars . There would be no incentive to develop other sources of energy. The USA Government already subsidizes the price of gas too much in my opinion. I don't have to imagine what is a reality.

How about you imagine people reacting to 5 dollar gas at the pump after being used to 1 dollar? They burn cars in the street and raise hell. Now imagine that the price of milk goes up too, and your salary is cut.

That is what tends to happen when subsides are cut. If you read the link I posted you would know this.

Of course sometimes this strategy works and prices stabilize, but there is a period of trauma. Even the Right wing understands this.

Cutting subsidies is a possible but risky solution that doesn't address the larger problem of corruption and break down of the rule of law among other things.
 
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How about you imagine people reacting to 5 dollar gas at the pump after being used to 1 dollar?

Much better, because no one is getting any at $1/ gallon. Prices aren't arbitrary dude. They give valuable information to the supply and demand of the good, and cause people to react (unconsciously even) to that information.

Its the same thing as the "price gouging" of water before a hurricane. Where someone would buy 20 cases of water at $5, he's only going to buy 2 or less at $40.... leaving the scarce cases of water for other people to buy.
 
People would over use petroleum products and drive gas guzzling cars . There would be no incentive to develop other sources of energy.

But there are no subsidies, only price control.

Let me rephrase this, what would happen if the government forced oil companies to sell a product below their operating costs?

The answer is they will go broke and stop producing oil, which is what happened to pretty much all Venezuelan industries they went broke.

Also you are right there would be riots on the street, but there will be riots on the street if there is no gas left at the station because it ran out.
 
But there are no subsidies, only price control.

Let me rephrase this, what would happen if the government forced oil companies to sell a product below their operating costs?

The answer is they will go broke and stop producing oil, which is what happened to pretty much all Venezuelan industries they went broke.

Also you are right there would be riots on the street, but there will be riots on the street if there is no gas left at the station because it ran out.

Its more complicated than that. Most oil rich states sell oil to their citizens at a below market rate like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Those countries also have a large public sector and lots of SOEs. PDVSA was just much more open to corruption than ARAMCO for various reasons.

But anyway the people rioting from a subsidy cut would be different than the ones that are already in the streets. The government would lose any support it still has.

I'm pretty sure the subsidies remain no matter who is in charge unless there is a massive infusion of capital into the economy that makes them redundant. That is actually what Saudi Arabia is trying to arrange.
 
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Its more complicated than that. Most oil rich states sell oil to their citizens at a below market rate like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. PDVSA was just much more open to corruption than ARAMCO for various reasons.

But anyway the people rioting from a subsidy cut would be different than the ones that are already in the streets. The government would lose any support it still has.

I'm pretty sure the subsidies remain no matter who is in charge unless there is a massive infusion of capital into the economy that makes them redundant.

Again, the time of subsidies is long gone, the Venezuelan government cant subsidize shit anymore because its broke, and the Venezuelan private sector cant produce things because they cant sell things at market price or even get dollars for imports.

So its not like you can buy stuff at the official prices anymore, anywhere.
 
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